Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 141038

630 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from the southeast LA coast, through Columbus, GA, to the east
coast of NC. Outflow from the numerous storms Saturday evening had
flipped the winds across much of our forecast area to the north, but
that was not the cold front, and we expect these winds to return to
light E-SE flow later this morning. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a narrow ridge along the Gulf Coast, so we don`t expect any
further progress of the aforementioned front, and very little (if
any) Q-G forcing. However, deep layer moisture remains plentiful,
and mesoscale forcing and/or weak convergence near the nearby front
will help generate scattered deep moist convection this afternoon.
Our PoP is in the 20-50% range, with the highest PoP north of Dothan
and Albany (nearest the frontal system), and around the Panama City
area (where the CAMs show more favorable sea breeze forcing). Highs
will be in the lower to mid 90s. The synoptic environment doesn`t
appears favorable for widespread flooding and/or severe storms,
though we can`t completely rule out an isolated, marginal incident
of either.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Rain chances will be gradually increasing through the short term
period as the "dirty" upper level ridge (with plenty of deep layer
moisture still underneath it) continues to weaken over the next
couple of days, before being replaced by a slowly steepening trof
over the SE U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lingering PoPs this
evening will range from 30% over much of the interior, with a small
area of 40%s across N portions of our AL and GA zones. On Monday, as
the southerly flow increases over the region, PoPs will rise from
40% south and 30% north in the morning, to 50% south and 60% north
by the afternoon, and once again linger well into the evening hours.
On Tuesday, as the upper level trof begins to become better
established, widespread 60% PoPs (with even a few areas of 70%) are
expected across the CWA. This pattern change could result in the
potential for more widespread heavy rainfall over the region through
mid week, before a significant punch of drier air works into the
area from the northwest by the end of the week as mentioned in the
long term discussion below. Initially, temps should still average a
few degrees above climo, but high temps on Tuesday may need a slight
downward adjustment based on the final cloud cover and rainfall

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...

Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a
stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients
point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance
of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is
possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture
expected to be in place. A drying trend is possible for most of
the area with the exception of the southeast big bend near the end
of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south.
Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal
through most of the week.



[through 12z Monday] Areas of dense fog and low cigs have developed
recently across portions of the FL Panhandle, southeast AL, and
southwest GA- especially at KDHN. There is a chance that some of
this may spread to KABY and KECP over the next few hours, but it
appears less likely than in our 06z TAF package. At KDHN, it will be
late morning before conditions improve to VFR. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected today and tonight, outside of isolated to
scattered TSRA that develop this afternoon and evening. Except
for KECP (where the PoP is 50%), the 20-30% PoP is too low for this
TAF package. Some NWP guidance indicates the potential for fog/low
cigs Monday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include
mention of this for now.



Winds and seas will remain a bit elevated across the offshore legs
today and Monday, as a trough of low pressure (the remnants of a
weak tropical disturbance) passes well to the south of the marine
area. Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected over the
coastal waters as a weak surface pressure returns to the marine


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least mid week.



Although areas of locally heavy rainfall will be possible through
mid-week, at this time it does not appear as though there will be
enough time or organization to this precipitation to cause a
widespread impact on our area rivers and streams. However, the
situation does still bear monitoring, and if the steepening of the
upper level trof and subsequent cold frontal passage are slightly
slower than expected, the hydrological outlook may need to be


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  72  93  72  91 /  30  30  50  30  60
Panama City   90  77  89  76  88 /  50  30  50  30  60
Dothan        91  71  92  71  91 /  30  30  60  40  60
Albany        91  71  92  72  92 /  40  40  60  40  60
Valdosta      92  71  93  71  92 /  30  30  60  30  60
Cross City    92  71  91  71  91 /  30  30  50  30  60
Apalachicola  89  77  88  77  87 /  30  30  50  30  60


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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