Area Forecast Discussion
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670 FXUS62 KTAE 291442 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1042 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A weakening cold front will affect the region today through the overnight hours. Dynamics are not overly strong and moisture is only around average for this time of year with PWAT values generally 1.0-1.3 inches. The highest PoPs for the day are expected to be across the western area at around 50% with a scattered coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms, then spreading eastward during the first half of the overnight hours. As for temps, expect another fairly warm day, with highs in the lower 80s to the west and middle 80s to the east with higher dewpoints across the board compared to yesterday.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Thursday] Fog has lifted at TLH, and mainly VFR conditions will prevail at all sites for the remainder of the period. There is a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon into the evening mainly at DHN and ECP, but the impacts are expected to be brief.
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&& .Prev Discussion [409 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... The eastern CONUS trough will become firmly established through the period as several +PV anomalies dive southeast, exiting the country over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Tonight, the aforementioned cold front will slowly move east across the Tri-State region, while shower intensity and coverage decreases as the initial upper level anomaly moves away and low- level flow temporarily becomes zonal. On Thursday, another shortwave will move through the Southeast forcing the remnant cold front through the local area by Thursday evening. Temperatures tonight will feature seasonal low 50s across our Alabama and northern Georgia counties behind the front, and above average temps in the middle 60s ahead of it. With the region remaining bisected through much of the day on Thursday, expect a sharp gradient with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s across the southeast Big Bend, and in the lower 70s across southeast Alabama. Below average temperatures will overspread most of the area by Thursday night with inland locations outside of the southeast Big Bend falling in the lower to middle 40s. Friday is expected to be dry with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, just a few degrees below average. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... Big changes are in store during the long term period. While there are still differences between the Euro and GFS with the eventual incoming airmass for the weekend, some key points are starting to emerge. Of the two models, the Euro is the most aggressive showing a significant amplification of the pattern by Saturday with a closed low moving off the Mid Atlantic States by the first of the week. This opens the door for the first real cold air intrusion to the Gulf. And with the surface ridge axis in the model aligned near the region by Sunday morning, the Euro hints at the potential for a frosty morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s. The GFS favors slightly milder temperatures, though has begun to trend towards the colder Euro. By Monday, as the surface high pressure area moves off the Atlantic Coast, easterly flow returns, signaling a gradual warm up and a steady increase in low level moisture. .Marine... Light southerly flow will veer northerly and increase to near advisory levels (west of Apalachicola) tonight as a cold front moves into the northeast Gulf. Winds will decrease through the day on Thursday as the front weakens, though this will only be temporary as strong high pressure should result in at least cautionary level winds across the entire northeast Gulf through the weekend. .Fire Weather... No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next few days. However, by this upcoming Saturday, some of the driest air of the season will be on its way, which may give us our first Red Flag Warning in quite some time for much of the Tri-State area. All interests are urged to keep abreast of the latest conditions, should future watches or warnings become necessary. .Hydrology... Rainfall amounts through Thursday will be rather light and pose no impact to area rivers and streams.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 83 60 76 48 74 / 30 50 10 0 0 Panama City 80 63 75 52 72 / 50 50 10 0 0 Dothan 82 54 72 45 72 / 50 50 0 0 0 Albany 83 54 73 45 72 / 40 50 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 60 78 51 73 / 10 30 10 10 0 Cross City 84 65 82 58 77 / 10 10 30 20 0 Apalachicola 80 65 75 53 73 / 40 30 10 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD/GOULD SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...GODSEY/HARRIGAN AVIATION...DVD MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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