Area Forecast Discussion
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995 FXUS62 KTAE 302047 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 347 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Breezy northerly winds will diminish this evening as high pressure builds in across the Southern Appalachians. Light winds and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below the freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally colder locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s except near 40 along the coast. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... After a short period of northerly winds behind today`s cold front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently entering the Western CONUS near Washington. As this shortwave gets advected southeast into a subtle Eastern CONUS trough, it will begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies, surface cyclogenesis will initiate late Satruday night over the Central Plains and high pressure, currently over us today/tonight, will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by Sunday), and increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday afternoon. As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving system will provide little time for abundunt moisture/temperature return from the Central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western zones. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern states ejects into the Western Gulf. At the moment, most of the guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow this system for the end of the week.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast cycle. Gusty northerly winds will diminish around sunset.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief period of Small Craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will begin to diminish by Tuesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However, dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this morning with all of the river points below flood stage. The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of the forecast points. With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday. While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain, the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next week or weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 35 61 43 66 58 / 0 0 0 30 50 Panama City 40 59 50 66 59 / 0 0 10 50 50 Dothan 34 57 42 63 53 / 0 0 10 60 60 Albany 31 57 39 65 55 / 0 0 0 40 60 Valdosta 34 60 42 68 57 / 0 0 0 20 60 Cross City 34 64 44 71 59 / 0 0 0 10 50 Apalachicola 39 58 51 66 61 / 0 0 0 30 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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