Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 200737

337 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Mid-level heights will begin to rise today as a ridge of high
pressure builds just west of the forecast area. This will lead to a
more northwesterly low-level flow, with some drier air working in
from the north. This combination of factors should yield reduced
rainfall coverage compared to yesterday, with the sea-breeze playing
the primary role in triggering convection. For PoPs today, have
blended the local sea-breeze climatology with the CAM ensemble
guidance. This places the highest PoPs in the western Big Bend,
south of I-10.

Temperatures should be warmer today owing to the building ridge and
reduced cloud cover. Expect temperatures to reach the mid and upper
90s, with the highest values over SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Deep layer ridging will build and become centered over the central
Gulf coast states Thursday through Friday. This will bring hot
temperatures and drier than normal conditions to the region. The
best chance for rain (30%) will be across the Florida zones due to
the afternoon sea-breeze. Highs will be in the upper 90s to around
100 degrees both days. Heat index values are forecast in the 105-110
degree range over the Florida zones and around 105 degrees elsewhere
on Thursday. Heat index values in the 105-110 range could expand to
cover most of the Tri-state region on Friday. A Heat Advisory may be
needed for at least a portion of our FA for both days. Lows will
only be in the mid 70s.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Conditions are expected to stay hot and relatively dry through early
next week as a strong ridging of high pressure builds inland and
stays in place until it begins to weaken late this weekend. A long
stretch of hot days is on tap with highs expected to reach the upper
90s Thursday through Sunday, decreasing only slightly to the mid 90s
Monday and Tuesday when rain chances increase again after the ridge
begins to weaken.


[Through 06Z Thursday] With a little extra low-level moisture in
place from Wednesdays rainfall, expect to see some MVFR/IFR cigs or
vsby at KTLH, KABY, and KVLD. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the forecast period. Thunderstorm activity should be more
limited today, with KTLH having the best chance of any impacts.



Light to occasionally moderate west winds will continue into the
upcoming weekend. Seas are generally expected to remain around 2
feet or less through the period.


.Fire Weather...

High pressure will build over the region over the next few days,
pushing afternoon temperatures higher and minimum relative
humidities lower. However, despite RH values dropping into the lower
to mid 30s by Thursday, no Red Flag Conditions are anticipated.



Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be less than an
inch with localized higher amounts possible. With all area rivers
below action stage, no flooding is expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  98  75 100 /  40  10  30  20  30
Panama City   93  79  97  78  97 /  40  10  20  20  20
Dothan        96  75  99  76  99 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        97  75 100  76 100 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      96  74 100  74 100 /  30  10  20  20  30
Cross City    94  74  98  74  97 /  30  10  30  20  30
Apalachicola  93  77  94  77  95 /  40  10  20  20  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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