Area Forecast Discussion
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329 FXUS62 KTAE 281841 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 241 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The cold front across the Southeast continues to move off toward the Gulf Coast States with scattered convection already initiating ahead of the boundary. Storms are also developing along the sea breeze front, mainly in the Florida Big Bend. So far, development through 1830z has been fairly close to the 28/09z WRF forecast, which the morning forecast was weighted heavily toward. Overall, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for the additional development and intensification of storms. SBCAPE values exceed 4000 J/kg across the entire forecast area. Kinematics aren`t overly impressive with deep layer shear values only in the 25 to 30kt range. With the added forcing of the cold front, expect storms to gradually merge into multi-cell clusters or linear segments as they progress toward the region this afternoon and evening. Primary concerns are for damaging winds. Hail is also a possibility in the strongest storms. Storms should diminish after about 04z as the cold front nears the coast and much of the daily instability is lost. Cooler and drier air will begin spreading into the region with overnight lows north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records. For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s. Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are: July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help enhance diurnal convection. Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area. Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s. Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Tuesday] Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida counties early this afternoon. A stronger cluster or line of thunderstorms is expected to develop over central AL/GA later this afternoon. These storms will move into DHN and ABY late this afternoon and towards TLH and VLD this evening. These storms could produce very strong winds and small hail. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected overnight and into tomorrow.
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&& .Marine...
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Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north. Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds Wednesday through the end of the week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen any flood concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 72 93 66 93 66 / 60 10 0 10 0 Panama City 75 92 72 90 72 / 60 10 0 10 0 Dothan 70 91 66 90 65 / 40 0 0 10 0 Albany 69 91 65 91 66 / 40 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 71 92 64 92 67 / 60 10 0 10 0 Cross City 75 93 68 94 69 / 50 30 10 10 0 Apalachicola 76 91 71 90 73 / 50 20 0 10 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf- Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton- Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien- Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas. AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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