Area Forecast Discussion
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170 FXUS62 KTAE 182140 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 440 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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High clouds will continue to stream across the forecast area overnight ahead of a shortwave trough moving through Texas. The increase in clouds will likely keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, with lows generally in the lower to mid 40s. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... The deamplifying shortwave that will be passing just north of our area in the short term period is currently pushing into New Mexico. Some rain and a few thunderstorms have also developed near coastal Louisiana near and north of a surface front as isentropic ascent increases in advance of the approaching wave. Through the period, the stronger isentropic ascent and lower condensation pressure deficits in the 295-300K planes will be situated N/NW of our forecast area. Combined with the weakening nature of the passing shortwave aloft, we expect PoPs to mainly be in the "chance" (<55%) range - except far north - and rainfall to be fairly light. It seems like locales along and north of a line from Dothan to Albany could see a steady, light rain from Friday Night into Saturday morning, while southeastern parts of our area could remain dry through much of the period. High temperatures should stay in the 50s in the northern parts of our area where cloud cover and rain will be more persistent, with highs closer to normal over the remainder of the area. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... As a trough in the central US continues to amplify west of our area, with several shortwaves digging into the base of the trough, we may see a couple more rounds of rain until the synoptic cold front ultimately moves through Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. One round looks likely from Sunday night into Monday morning along and just north of a stalled surface front. The best chances of rain in that timeframe would be in the southeast part of our area, and a few thunderstorms will also be possible. The next round of rain would be most likely Tuesday or Tuesday Night ahead of the main cold front. Again, thunderstorms would be possible. Temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday may be slightly above normal, falling to below normal in the wake of the cold front on Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Friday] Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light, but divergence aloft will keep upper level clouds in place through the period.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds should generally remain around 10 knots (+/- 5kt) through much of the forecast period. While that should not be enough for any hazard headlines, the winds should be sufficient for a light chop on protected waters and seas around 2 feet.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week. Low level moisture and rain chances will begin to increase over the weekend.
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&& .Hydrology...
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With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected through the weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 42 66 46 66 51 / 0 10 20 40 30 Panama City 48 61 52 64 54 / 10 30 30 40 20 Dothan 43 58 47 60 48 / 10 40 70 50 20 Albany 40 62 46 61 46 / 0 30 70 60 30 Valdosta 40 65 47 64 52 / 0 10 20 40 30 Cross City 41 70 46 70 57 / 0 10 10 20 30 Apalachicola 47 64 54 66 58 / 0 10 20 40 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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