Area Forecast Discussion
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008 FXUS62 KTAE 051456 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 956 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Just a few minor updates were made for the fcst across the region for the rest of today, as the general pattern with the increasing shower activity out ahead of the approaching cold front is fairly well on schedule. Did increase rain chances and QPF just a bit in most areas for both 12 to 18 UTC and 18 to 00 UTC, and raised max temps slightly over SE AL, where mid morning temps had already exceeded fcst highs for the day. These lower to mid 70s will be quite temporary, however, as temps are falling into the mid to upper 40s within one to two hours behind the front just off to our NW. This much colder air is presently getting very close to Coffee county.
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&& .Prev Discussion [403 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Cold air advection will be underway with the surface cold front off to the southeast by the this evening. Although drier air will quickly advect into the area in the mid-upper levels, model forecast soundings suggest a saturated layer will be maintained just below the frontal inversion. This would likely end up as a post-frontal stratus layer that lingers into much of Friday. Therefore, the forecast for Friday is a cool day with highs ranging from the upper 40s in south-central Georgia to the mid-50s in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Warmer weather is likely by Saturday with clearing skies. Although the moist layer will be relatively shallow, a few light rain showers or sprinkles will be possible from tonight into Friday until the stratus clears out. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... Although surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will maintain east to northeast flow across our area, return flow aloft from Saturday Night into Sunday should bring a renewed chance for rain that will persist into early next week. Models still have some differences in timing of different rounds of rain, so some rain chances are indicated through the extended forecast. With a corresponding increase in cloud cover, highs through much of the extended should be below normal with lows near normal. .Aviation... [Through 06Z Friday] Low clouds and limited visibility will impact terminals today ahead of the approaching cold front. Stronger winds this morning will mean more of a low CIGS threat versus a fog threat. However, CIGS will remain well into IFR territory until the front passes. Expect the wind shift around 16Z for KDHN, 20Z for KABY and KECP, 22Z for KVLD and KTLH. .Marine... Many of the coastal observations indicate visibilities above 1 mile, and satellite shows most of the stratus or fog over land areas now. Although some webcams near Panama City do show fog in some spots, the areas of dense fog don`t appear widespread enough to continue the advisory. However, wording about morning fog in nearshore areas was maintained in the CWF. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for the western legs of the waters for 20-25kt winds behind the cold front. SCEC level winds are expected east of there. At least SCEC level winds should linger into early Saturday. .Fire Weather... The current very warm and moist air mass will be replaced by a cooler air mass for Friday in the wake of a strong cold front. Dewpoints are not expected to be terribly low with the incoming air mass, keeping minimum humidity values well above Red Flag levels. No fire weather concerns are expected through Friday. .Hydrology... All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are still in action or bank full stage. Rainfall totals will not be high enough to cause a significant rise on rivers.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 50 54 38 67 / 70 20 30 10 10 Panama City 67 44 55 41 62 / 70 20 20 10 10 Dothan 71 38 52 35 64 / 80 20 10 10 10 Albany 71 42 49 34 64 / 80 30 20 10 10 Valdosta 75 46 50 37 66 / 70 50 30 10 10 Cross City 75 55 56 43 67 / 30 20 30 20 10 Apalachicola 68 48 56 44 63 / 70 20 30 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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