Area Forecast Discussion
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308
FXUS62 KTAE 171533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Seasonably cool airmass will settle over the region today in the
wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Mostly clear skies with highs
in the lower to mid 60s are on tap this afternoon. With current
forecast on track, no significant changes are planned this
morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [425 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.


.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







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