Area Forecast Discussion
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461
FXUS62 KTAE 301447
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west today. At the sfc
low pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area by
this afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest today. The
northwestern part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the
late afternoon hours. Elsewhere cloud cover could persist until
after sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low to
mid 80s. The lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with
highs this afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR to IFR cigs across
the region. Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by
late morning to early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late
afternoon for VFR conditions to return to most of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding concerns since river levels are low and little to no
rain is expected all week.

&&

.Prev Discussion [236 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT






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