Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 041603
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1103 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2013
...Mild and Foggy Weather on Tap Through Friday...
.NEAR TERM [Until 6 PM This Evening]...
Fog has lifted to low ceilings across the forecast areas as of 16
UTC. Despite the abundance of low clouds, temps appear to be on
track to meet the advertised highs, mainly in the upper 70s. Areas
of sea fog continue to be forecast by several hi-res models to
develop over the cooler shelf waters of Apalachee Bay this afternoon,
although we have yet to see evidence of that . If this fog does
develop, we would expect it to creep inland around 22-23 UTC in
.SHORT TERM [6 PM This Evening Through Friday]...
Upper pattern across the lower 48 will amplify during the second
half of the week as a trough digs over the western states and a
ridge builds along the eastern seaboard. Heights will be on the
rise in the deep south, with a 5910m ridge forecast to be in place
over central and south Florida by Friday. This ridge will keep the
arctic airmass plunging into the central states at bay with well
above normal temperatures for the local area. Expect high
temperatures to approach 80 degrees Thursday and Friday
afternoons, with lows only dipping into the lower to mid 60s
(close to normal high temperatures for early December).
Moist low-level onshore flow will persist through the period,
keeping dew points well into the 60s. The warm and moist flow over
the cool shelf waters of Apalachee Bay will likely result in the
development of sea fog, which will advect inland during the
next few nights. A large area of dense fog appears likely over the
eastern half of the forecast area tonight, with a repeat
performance possibly Thursday night. The fog will likely be slow
to burn off Thursday and Friday mornings persisting until close to
midday for some areas.
With the building ridge over the area, widespread rainfall is not
anticipated through Friday. However, the warm and moist airmass
will support a few isolated showers, primarily over the
northwestern third of the area, farthest removed from the highest
heights. Best rain chances will likely be Thursday afternoon,
where surface-based instability may be enough to support a couple
of thunderstorms as well.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
The upper ridge off to our southeast over the Bahamas will be slow
to move eastward. Therefore, the first front to approach the area
early in the period will reach our northwestern zones late Friday
and then stall on Saturday before reaching Tallahassee. The front
will then lift rapidly northward as a warm front on Sunday as a
wave of low pressure develops over the Northwest Gulf. This low
will not amount to much and will be absorbed by the next front.
This second front is forecast to sweep across the entire area
Monday night into Tuesday. PoPs will generally be in the
chance/scattered category through this period. Temps will remain
well above normal for most of the period. However, the first front
will cool things down briefly on Saturday across our northwestern
zones. The entire area will see considerably cooler air arrive on
[Through 12 UTC Wednesday] A slow but steady improvement from IFR
to MVFR cigs is underway at the terminals, with VFR expected in most
spots by 18 UTC. Fog and low stratus will begin to spread inland
from coastal areas around 00 UTC, affecting TLH and ECP first in the
evening. LIFR conditions look to be a good bet overnight and into
Thursday morning at all terminals.
With high pressure in place off the Eastern Seaboard, modest
onshore flow is forecast to continue over the coastal waters into
the weekend, with wind speeds occasionally approaching exercise
caution levels. Sea fog is expected to be an issue beginning this
afternoon, especially over Apalachee Bay. Conditions will continue
to favor sea fog development through at least Friday.
Red flag conditions are not expected the next several days. Dense
fog may occur over the next several nights with poor mixing and
While there is a chance of rain through the weekend, total QPF
amounts will not be enough to have an impact on river stages.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 79 63 79 62 78 / 10 10 20 10 10
Panama City 76 67 76 65 76 / 20 20 20 10 10
Dothan 77 65 77 63 79 / 20 20 30 20 20
Albany 77 63 79 62 80 / 10 10 30 20 10
Valdosta 80 61 79 61 80 / 10 10 20 10 10
Cross City 78 61 81 58 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 74 66 75 64 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
REST OF DISCUSSION...Wool