Area Forecast Discussion
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621
FXUS62 KTAE 230043
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
843 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Water vapor imagery and model analyses shows a vigorous vort center
pivoting into the area from the northwest this evening. This feature
help to enhance shear across the region earlier today which allow a
few isolated strong storm to develop ahead of a cold front. Only
some remnant showers remained as of 00Z across our GA zones with
isolated thunderstorms impacting Dixie County. The significantly
drier air is lagging the front by quite a bit and still lurks just
northwest of the forecast area. We may actually see some scattered
low clouds develop later tonight. PoP and sky grids were adjusted
based on radar and satellite trends. The rest of the forecast was
pretty much on track. Look for min temps to dip below 60 before
daybreak northwest of Dothan with mid 60s across most of the
forecast area. Of course, it will be a bit milder near the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday] Any remnant showers ahead of a cold front
should dissipate early in the TAF period. The low level dry air
will, however, be stubborn to move south and this could result in
some IFR ceilings developing later tonight. The best chance for
this happening will be at VLD, but we cannot rule it out at ABY
and TLH either. After any ceilings scatter out Tuesday morning,
the remainder of the day will feature VFR conditions. However, NE
winds will be gusty.

&&

.Prev Discussion [406 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Upper low will dig into South Carolina overnight and help to push
a cold front through much of the area by early Tuesday morning.
The front is expected to wash out as it reaches the southeastern
Big Bend and high pressure over New England becomes dominant. A
slightly cooler airmass will make its way into the northern
portion of the forecast area, with highs only expected to reach
the lower to mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. The cooler air will
be slower to reach areas south of I-10, with upper 80s expected on
Tuesday and mid 80s on Wednesday.

Any precip should be confined to the southeastern Big Bend through
Wednesday, as showers originating off the northeast Florida coast
migrate southwestward in the northeasterly low-level flow.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The beginning of the extended period will feature a relatively
weak flow pattern aloft across the deep south, with the area
situated between ridges over the Rockies and western Atlantic.
At the surface, northeasterly flow will continue with high
pressure parked over New England and a trough of low pressure
along the eastern seaboard. The northeasterly flow should keep
most of the deeper moisture and showers confined to northeast
Florida. However, isolated activity may reach the far eastern Big
Bend from time to time.

Deeper moisture is forecast to return over the weekend as a trough
deepens over the central states. This should lead to increased
rain chances across the forecast area for Saturday into Monday.


.Marine...
Following a frontal passage tonight, winds and seas will begin to
increase as high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. Small
Craft Advisory conditions will be possible by Tuesday night, with
winds and seas remaining at or above Exercise Caution levels
through at least Thursday.


.Fire Weather...
Low level moisture will remain sufficient to preclude any Red Flag
concerns over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals through Friday are expected to be 1" or less
across the area, with the highest rainfall totals in the eastern
Big Bend. Since local rivers are at or near normal levels, these
totals are not expected to cause rises into flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  87  66  85  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
Panama City   68  88  69  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        61  84  61  83  62 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        64  83  61  82  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      65  85  64  82  64 /  30  20  10  10  10
Cross City    67  88  67  85  67 /  30  30  20  40  30
Apalachicola  70  86  70  84  69 /  20  10  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN






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