Area Forecast Discussion
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165
FXUS62 KTAE 241409
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1009 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION FROM LAST NIGHT HAS STAYED IN PLACE
KEEPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE STRATUS CLOUD DECK THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND KEEP THEM
ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, REBUILDING ANY BREAKS THAT OCCURRED IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 50S FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [628 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY POPS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT WITH UNIMPRESSIVE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING THEY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LOWS NEAR
60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A STRONG COLD FRONT...IN TERMS OF AIRMASS CONTRAST...WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. A MODEST WARMING TREND IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]...CEILINGS AT LEAST AT MVFR LEVELS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT TLH/VLD SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT CEILINGS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT. VLD/ABY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH
DHN/ECP HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ALL TERMINALS.


.MARINE...

NORTHEAST WINDS WERE IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. RELATIVELY LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

MODEST RISES IN SOME OF THE LOCAL RIVER STAGES WERE OBSERVED FROM
THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALL SITES WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   76  59  81  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  30
PANAMA CITY   75  62  74  63  76 /   0  10  10  10  30
DOTHAN        76  58  78  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20
ALBANY        75  58  78  58  81 /   0  10  10  20  20
VALDOSTA      71  59  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    78  60  82  61  83 /  10  10  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  74  63  74  65  77 /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/CM
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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