Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 211034 RRA

354 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Zonal flow will be in place in the mid to upper levels. An
inverted surface trough moving eastward across the northeast Gulf
of Mexico has generated a few light showers early this morning
over portions of northwest Florida and adjacent waters. This
activity should diminish or move to our east by daybreak. A dry
cold front off to our northwest will advance southeastward and
pass through the FA later this morning. Temps will be very mild
for mid January with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The main action will be on Thursday night and Friday as an area of
low pressure moves along the Gulf coast. There are some relatively
minor differences noted in the low track with some models taking
the low farther inland in our area and other models keeping the
low more along the coast. The northern solutions would bring more
of the warm sector inland with a better chance of thunderstorms
across the area. Both low level and deep layer shear are strong in
either scenario, so we will need to keep a close eye on the
instability for late Thursday night into Friday. It is possible we
could end up with a low CAPE/high shear scenario and a few
stronger storms on Friday over portions of the area if the low
tracks far enough to the north. Heavy rainfall will also be a
concern with PWAT values near the 99th percentile for the month of

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
A drying trend is expected through the period behind the wet
system on Friday. A fairly strong and deep trough is expected to
dig into the eastern states by early next week, but a mostly dry
frontal passage is expected locally with northwest flow and a lack
of moisture return. A brief cooling trend is possible early next
week behind the frontal passage.


[Through 12Z Thursday] MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will prevail at most TAF
sites until around 16z with VFR conditions to follow through the
remainder of the forecast. Winds will be light and northerly except
onshore at ECP.


Winds will remain fairly light today with a weak pressure gradient
in place. East to northeast winds will increase on Thursday as an
area of low pressure moves along the Gulf coast. Advisory
conditions are possible starting on Thursday night with strong
easterly winds. Winds will then veer to the south during the day
on Friday and eventually to the northwest on Saturday as the area
of low pressure moves through with stormy conditions.


.Fire Weather...
Dispersion indices will be low across most of the Tri-state region
this afternoon and Thursday due to light transport winds. Moisture
levels will slowly increase with widespread rain expected for
Thursday night and Friday as a low pressure system in the Gulf of
Mexico approaches and passes through. Cooler and drier air will
begin to arrive late Saturday with no fire weather concerns at this


All area rivers are below flood stage and either steady or
falling. A low pressure system could bring widespread 2-3 inch
rainfall totals from Thursday night into Saturday morning. This
would cause rises on area rivers.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  48  69  56  67 /   0   0  10  60  90
Panama City   67  50  65  57  64 /   0   0  20  80  90
Dothan        70  45  62  50  58 /   0   0  20  80  90
Albany        71  43  66  49  59 /   0   0  10  80  90
Valdosta      74  46  70  54  64 /   0   0  10  50  90
Cross City    73  50  73  56  69 /   0   0  10  20  80
Apalachicola  69  52  65  59  67 /   0   0  10  60  90


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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