Area Forecast Discussion
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859
FXUS62 KTAE 211507
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1107 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO FOR MANY DAYS NOW IS FINALLY MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP
TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY DAY`S END.
THE LOW WILL LIKELY FORM AN A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. IT IS THE LATTER FEATURE AND THE SEA
BREEZE THAT WILL TOUCH OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEER AROUND 40 KT, AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER THIS MORNING`S STRATUS BURNS OFF, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AROUND 04-06Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN.
GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING AS
EARLY AS 06-08Z SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [418 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING BY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
WITH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK
TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ISN`T ESPECIALLY COLD.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A COUPLE OF TRANQUIL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. IN FACT, LOW TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE QUITE COOL DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW
PLACES.

A WARMING TREND BEGINS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TO THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A STRONGER AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT`S STILL A LITTLE EARLY
TO SPECULATE ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH A MORE
ENERGETIC SOLUTION WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME SORT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, SO DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE BY SATURDAY. IN FACT, THERE`S SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE GUIDANCE THAT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD FEATURE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING.


.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DESPITE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGH.


.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MODEST
RISES IN AREA RIVERS TO ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  64  81  62  78 /  40  40  70  70  60
PANAMA CITY   78  64  75  63  75 /  20  40  70  60  20
DOTHAN        83  62  75  59  70 /  30  60  90  90  40
ALBANY        80  61  73  58  67 /  20  70  90 100  60
VALDOSTA      85  64  80  61  75 /  30  40  80  80  70
CROSS CITY    86  62  82  62  78 /  20  20  40  50  60
APALACHICOLA  78  65  76  64  75 /  10  30  60  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION..GOULD/MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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