Area Forecast Discussion
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919 FXUS62 KTAE 011931 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 331 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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It`s been a slow start so far with the afternoon convection, but this has been the pattern over the past couple of days. A few showers and storms have developed along the immediate coast, but limited activity has occurred inland. Visible satellite imagery show the east coast sea breeze starting to move inland west of I-95 and it is expected that storms between TLH-JAX will continue to develop through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Elsewhere, with limited forcing and drier air aloft, expect storms to end by sunset- if they even develop at all. After midnight, expect mostly clear skies and warm temperatures mainly in the lower 70s. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... A slowly weakening 594 dm Upper Level ridge (which is currently centered over the CWA) will continue to dominate the synoptic pattern over the region as it slowly slides to the west. However, there is still plenty of deep layer moisture under this ridge, which when combined with very weak low level flow will keep PoPs generally in the 30-50% range both Tuesday and Wednesday, with most of the convective forcing generated by the sea breeze circulation. Afternoon temps will remain on the hot side as well, with highs still in the mid to upper 90s away from the coast. Overnight lows will continue to range from the lower to middle 70s inland to the middle to upper 70s near the coast. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Although the synoptic pattern will be dominated by weak Upper Level ridging throughout most of the extended period, the positioning of the Bermuda High pressure system at the surface will still allow for an ample supply of deep layer moisture to advect in from the southeast. Additionally, the Upper ridge is expected to weaken and retrograde westward over time, which should trend daytime PoPs at or even above climo levels (generally in the 30-50% range). While high and low temps are not expected to be nearly as warm as they have recently been, they should still average above climo, with highs generally in the lower to a few middle 90s, with lows still in the lower to middle 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the period. A few storms may approach VLD late this afternoon/evening but confidence isn`t high enough to include more than a VCTS group for now. VSBY restrictions in the morning are unlikely.
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&& .Marine...
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A very weak surface pressure pattern will dominate the coastal waters for the next several days, allowing the diurnal sea breeze circulation to govern the predominantly light winds. Seas that have been slightly elevated by a long southeasterly fetch during the past couple of days will diminish as well.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Afternoon relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels, so red flag conditions are not expected through this week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as low in Florida, though with little or no significant rainfall expected this week, the downward trend should continue.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 96 73 96 73 / 30 30 30 40 20 Panama City 77 92 77 92 78 / 20 30 20 30 20 Dothan 72 98 73 96 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 Albany 73 97 73 97 73 / 20 30 20 40 20 Valdosta 71 96 72 96 71 / 40 40 30 40 20 Cross City 72 94 71 94 71 / 50 40 30 40 20 Apalachicola 74 90 77 90 77 / 20 30 20 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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