Area Forecast Discussion
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626 FXUS62 KTAE 270743 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 343 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Northeasterly low-level flow will continue today with Hurricane Cristobal well offshore of the Carolinas coast (moving into the open Atlantic), and a surface ridge of high pressure over the southern and central Appalachians. This should continue dry air advection, with average boundary layer dewpoints falling into the 50s in the northeast half of our area, and in the low-mid 60s elsewhere. With deep mixing expected today, the surface dewpoints should be fairly close to that, and the end result is a more refreshing air mass than what we`ve seen recently, especially over the previous weekend. High temperatures will still be in the low-mid 90s, but relative humidity levels should be quite low for summer. The dry air advection should also generally act to suppress cloud cover and rain chances. We are expecting a dry and mostly sunny day. The mostly clear skies and dry weather will continue into tonight. Given the much drier air mass arriving today, lows tonight should be below normal, and some mid-60s are in the forecast for our Georgia counties. .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday]... The upper ridge with very dry air in the mid to upper levels will start to gradually break down during the short term. The low level flow which will be from the east to northeast today will gradually veer to the south by Friday and bring a gradual increase in moisture to the boundary layer. However, PoPs will generally remain below 20% over land until Friday as we have a ways to go to moisten the airmass back up again. By Friday, it appears as though sufficient moistening will have occurred to allow for a return to scattered afternoon convection. Temperatures will be rather warm through the period with mid 90s common, but with the dry air in place, heat indices will not be much higher than that on Thursday with a slight uptick on Friday as moisture increases. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The GFS and ECMWF show the Tri-State region residing on the western periphery of deep layer ridging through Saturday. After that the GFS expands the ridge westward while becoming less amplified. The ECMWF keeps the area under the western portion of the de-amplifying ridge. At the surface, low level flow will be southerly with the high situated well east of the Atlantic seaboard. Both solutions show a return of deep layer moisture to the area with near to above normal rain chances each day. Despite the increase in rain chances, max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to mid 90s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Thursday] Mostly clear skies are expected, but afternoon cumulus around 6000 feet are possible. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail. Some MVFR VIS will be possible at VLD in the 08-12Z timeframe this morning, but any fog should clear quickly.
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&& .Marine...
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Caution level easterly winds will gradually diminish through the morning hours with winds expected to drop below caution levels by late morning. Lighter winds and seas are then expected to prevail through the weekend with winds gradually veering to onshore.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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A dry air mass is expected to push into the area over the next couple days. Winds are not expected to be sufficient for red flag conditions, but the afternoon relative humidity should be quite low for this time of year.
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&& .Hydrology...
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There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is not expected at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 68 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 40 Panama City 92 75 92 75 91 / 10 10 0 10 40 Dothan 93 66 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 30 Albany 93 65 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 93 65 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 30 Cross City 93 67 94 69 94 / 0 10 10 20 50 Apalachicola 91 73 91 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...DVD

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