Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

173
FXUS62 KTAE 200203
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1003 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Large stacked low just east of Jacksonville will slowly move away
from the region overnight. Wrap around moisture will continue to
keep a layer of low cloudiness in place through at least Sunday
morning. The lowest 4000 ft of the atmosphere is still essentially
saturated so expect pockets of light rain or drizzle to continue
through the overnight hours. The cloudiness and winds will keep
the temps from dropping too much overnight with lows generally in
the mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday] Low pressure near KJAX will keep north to
northeast wind elevated through much of the night. The low
pressure will also continue to generate MVFR to IFR cigs through
at least mid-morning on Sunday. VFR conditions should return to
most terminals during the afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [252 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Low clouds may linger into Sunday in association with wrap-around
moisture around the departing area of low pressure east of the
area. Otherwise, look for deep layer ridging, clearing skies and
seasonal temps to start the work week.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will start the night at cautionary levels, but a
gradual decreasing trend is expected as the night progresses. No
major systems are expected to affect the area through next week,
and winds are expected to stay generally around 15 knots or less
after tonight.


.Fire Weather...
Cloudy and cool conditions will continue into Sunday morning...
especially ERN areas. Red Flag conditions are not expected through
the upcoming work week.


.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher
amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and
Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to
rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with
many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is
expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along
the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage:
St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   52  70  51  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  71  56  76  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        50  73  52  79  57 /  10   0   0   0  10
Albany        51  72  51  79  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  70  50  79  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  75  52  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  69  55  74  58 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.