Area Forecast Discussion
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102
FXUS62 KTAE 210818
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
ALTHOUGH POPS WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT,
SOME OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE FORCED OR AIDED BY A
VERY EARLY SEASON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE
INCREASING BY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
WITH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK
TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ISN`T ESPECIALLY COLD.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A COUPLE OF TRANQUIL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. IN FACT, LOW TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE QUITE COOL DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S IN A FEW
PLACES.

A WARMING TREND BEGINS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TO THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A STRONGER AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT`S STILL A LITTLE EARLY
TO SPECULATE ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH A MORE
ENERGETIC SOLUTION WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME SORT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, SO DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE BY SATURDAY. IN FACT, THERE`S SOME INDICATIONS
IN THE GUIDANCE THAT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD FEATURE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] EXTREMELY COMPLEX TAF PACKAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AS PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND YESTERDAY`S LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL HAS LEFT ALL OF THE THE
TERMINALS IN A NEARLY CONSTANT STATE OF FLUX FROM IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY BACK TO VFR LEVELS FROM NEARLY HOUR TO HOUR.
THIS HAS MADE KEEPING UP WITH THE TAFS A CONSTANT CHALLENGE WHICH
MAY NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN, AND WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT, ONLY HAVE VCTS GROUPS IN
DHN AND VLD FOR 4 HOUR PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS N PARTS OF THE CWA, WILL LIKELY NEED TEMPOS
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS AT DHN AND ABY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DESPITE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MODEST
RISES IN AREA RIVERS TO ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  64  81  62  78 /  30  40  70  70  60
PANAMA CITY   78  64  75  63  75 /  30  40  70  60  20
DOTHAN        83  62  75  59  70 /  30  60  90  90  40
ALBANY        80  61  73  58  67 /  20  70  90 100  60
VALDOSTA      85  64  80  61  75 /  30  40  80  80  70
CROSS CITY    86  62  82  62  78 /  30  20  40  50  60
APALACHICOLA  78  65  76  64  75 /  20  30  60  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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