Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 240118
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Just made a few minor tweaks to the current fcst which is
essentially well on track. PoPs over the interior ended right bfr
00 UTC as fcst perfectly by the day shift. The only change of any
significance was to add in 20% PoPs over the Coastal Waters after
2 AM EDT to account for possible land breeze convection with the
[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions expected to deteriorate to
MVFR with BR development around 09-11Z from west to east at DHN,
ABY, TLH, and VLD. IFR cigs may develop at these sites as well,
but confidence is lower, so kept coverage scattered with this
package. VFR conditions expected to return around 13Z and prevail
through the day with winds from the southwest around 8-10kts in
.Prev Discussion [250 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The large scale period commences aloft with dissipating cutoff
low to our west, however remnants become increasingly absorbed by
Nrn stream trough Thurs and deepening into full latitude trough
over SE states thru the period. At surface, Mid-South cold front
drops Swd, albeit with limited moisture, to Srn AL/GA by end of
period shunting Ern ridge progressively SEWD into Atlc. All this
results in strengthening deep layer WSW flow with PWATs hovering
around 1.9 inches. Expect 30-50% POP gradient, S-N on Thurs and W-E
on Fri focused across east half of CWA and in aftn. With increased
dynamics, steeper lapse rates and higher dew points, strong storms
with ample lightning and gusty winds are possible each day and we
cant discount isold pulse severe with damaging winds and locally
heavy rain especially with seabreeze/boundary clashes. High temps
will reach the low to mid 90s, a little higher on Thurs with heat
indices from 90 to 103 highest Thursday and east.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The region will be dominated by a typical summer pattern through
Sunday. As a result, expect isolated afternoon/evening rain and
thunderstorms. Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases
afternoon/evening precip chances. A stationary boundary is expected
to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing increased
rain chances in the Big Bend Region. In addition to the increased
rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. It will be slightly cooler
and less humid Tuesday and Wednesday...particularly in the Alabama
and Georgia counties.
Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT through this
weekend, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during
the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating.
Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less.
No fire weather concerns.
River flooding will not be a concern with all area rivers below
flood stage and high rainfall amounts not expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 73 93 74 93 73 / 10 30 20 30 20
Panama City 76 88 77 88 77 / 10 30 20 30 20
Dothan 72 92 73 93 73 / 10 50 20 30 20
Albany 73 93 74 93 73 / 10 50 30 30 20
Valdosta 71 95 73 93 73 / 10 30 20 50 40
Cross City 72 92 72 92 73 / 10 30 20 40 20
Apalachicola 77 88 78 88 78 / 10 30 20 30 20