Area Forecast Discussion
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796
FXUS62 KTAE 101412
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will generate a
beautiful spring day in the Deep South. After a cool start in the
40s this morning, temperatures are warming nicely, and are
expected to reach the upper 70s by mid-afternoon. Only exception
will be along the immediate coast, where cool water temperatures
will keep highs in the lower 70s.

&&

.Prev Discussion [443 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term. At the surface,
high pressure will gradually slide eastward through Saturday with
temperatures exhibiting a gradual warming trend, although
generally remaining within a few degrees of average for this time
of year.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The beginning of the period starts with zonal flow aloft,
transitioning into a ridging pattern early Sunday keeping
conditions benign. The next chance for rain will take place Monday
afternoon as the next upper trough approaches, with PoPs
remaining in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday morning. Although
the GFS and Euro handle the upper level patterns around this time
differently, they generally agree on the timing of rain and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain average for the time of
year until Tuesday when highs will drop about 10 degrees across
the area into the lower 70s.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
Weak seabreeze should generate few-sct cu especially near the
coast. Light northerly winds early will become southerly 5 to 10
MPH by late morning...then calm after sunset.


.Marine...
With high pressure forecast to remain in place through Saturday,
winds and seas will remain low. An increase in southeasterly flow
is possible on Sunday with winds up to 15 knots as high pressure
slides east of the area.


.Fire Weather...
A noticeably drier airmass will be in place today as mixing down of
mid/upper level air will cause dew points to plummet. Inland
afternoon relative humidities will drop into the mid 20s. While the
duration criteria will be met in Florida, critical ERC values and 20
foot wind values will not be realized. Similarly, in GA/AL wind and
humidity criteria, respectively, will not be met. The airmass will
slowly moisten on Friday and throughout the weekend, thus red flag
conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Several basins continue to experience flooding or are forecast to
receive flooding at various points, including the Pea River,
Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Kinchafoonee Creek, and
Spring Creek. Other basins such as the Flint River, Ochlockonee
River, Aucilla River, and Withlacoochee River are in action stage
but are not currently forecast to reach flood stage, although
Thomasville and Concord on the Ochlockonee are forecast to crest
within a couple tenths of a foot of flood stage.

The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  47  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   74  55  76  59  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        78  49  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        79  48  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  47  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  53  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP/HELLER
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...DVD







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