Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 150137
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Yesterday`s cold front has brought the CWA another shot of dry air
and below normal temps. Clear skies and light winds will allow for
temperatures to drop into the 30s for most of the region. Looking at
this evenings guidance, saw no reason to expand the freeze warning,
and the current forecast is on track. The freeze warning is in
effect for most locations away from the coast and northwest of a
line through Tallahassee and Valdosta (see bottom of AFD for
counties warned). Locations southeast of this line will see
temperatures in the upper 30s or near 40. With the winds not going
completely calm, we don`t expect a hard freeze. However, areas of
patchy frost in, and near, the freeze warning are possible.
[Through 00Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail for all terminals through
tonight and tomorrow. Throughout the TAF period, northerly winds
will veer and are forecast to be out of the east around 5-10kts by
tomorrow evening. Clear skies will prevail.
.Prev Discussion [408 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A brief warm-up is on tap for the weekend as the center of high
pressure slides to the Carolinas and the low-level flow shifts to
the east and then southeast. Highs on Saturday will range from the
upper 50s in the north and west to the mid 60s in the south and
east. By Sunday, highs will recover into the upper 60s to lower
Deep moisture will begin to increase late on Sunday as the next
potent shortwave digs into the Southern Plains and surface low
pressure develops along the central Gulf Coast. Expect a few
showers to make it into the western portion of the forecast area
by late Sunday afternoon, with the coverage increasing quickly
Sunday night as a leading shortwave exits the base of the trough
and lifts northeast across the area.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Active weather will be ongoing at the beginning of the period
Monday morning as a strong cold front moves across the forecast
area. Guidance is showing a quick surge of 60+ dewpoints into the
Panhandle and Big Bend during the morning hours, helping to
generate some surface-based CAPE near the coast. With deep layer
shear near 50 knots and 35 to 40 knot low-level jet, an isolated
strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out early in the day.
Otherwise, expect widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
ahead of and just behind the front. The rain will end from west
to east during the afternoon and evening.
Much colder air will rush into the area Tuesday night, with
temperatures remaining well below normal through Thursday, before
moderation kicks in at the end of the week. Widespread freezes
are likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with hard freezes
possible as well.
Winds and seas will diminish through Saturday before increasing
again Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The onshore winds
Sunday and Sunday night will become offshore Monday afternoon with
Small Craft Advisory conditions developing behind the front. The
strong offshore winds will continue through Tuesday before
diminishing Tuesday night.
A gradual moistening trend will preclude any hazardous fire weather
conditions over the next several days.
Dry conditions will persist through early Sunday before rain moves
into the area late Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches will be possible with this frontal passage. This may cause
some minor rises on area rivers and streams. However, with base
flows at low levels, no flooding is expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 36 63 44 70 57 / 0 0 10 10 50
Panama City 39 61 47 69 62 / 0 0 10 20 70
Dothan 29 58 40 67 55 / 0 0 10 20 90
Albany 30 60 39 69 54 / 0 0 10 20 70
Valdosta 35 61 45 69 55 / 0 0 10 10 50
Cross City 41 66 49 75 57 / 0 0 10 10 40
Apalachicola 43 61 49 69 63 / 0 0 10 10 50
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
CST/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Gulf.
GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-
AL...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for