Area Forecast Discussion
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814
FXUS62 KTAE 240344
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1044 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With some fairly strong cold air advection developing off to our
west, it appears that the bulk of the Numerical Models have been a
bit underdone in bringing the CAA further off to the S and E.
Therefore, used a blend of the ADJECE and the ADJMEN for overnight
low temps tonight, which appears to better capture the
significantly colder temps over western portions of the CWA. Over
portions of SE AL and far western portions of the FL Panhandle,
temps could bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, though it should
be noted that NO precip of the frozen variety is expected. Further
to the east, lows will gradually climb into the 40s with even some
lower 50s over the far SE FL Big Bend. Did not make any changes to
PoPs, as the currently widespread likely category looks good at
this time, with just a few areas of chance PoPs well to the south.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]

Fairly gloomy Taf fcst over the next 24 hrs, as plenty of low
cigs, light rain and MVFR level Vis moves in from the west. Cigs
are expected to vary from MVFR to IFR for much of the period, but
gradually improve to MVFR and VFR from west to east during the
afternoon hours on Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [424 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Stationary frontal boundary will remain in place along the Gulf
Coast on Tuesday as the surface high pressure to the north
rapidly weakens. Showers will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period as a jet streak passes north of the forecast area. However,
cyclogenesis occurs off the southeast coast during the day, the
focus for precip will shift quickly east with limited rainfall
coverage expected by the afternoon. The cooler airmass to the
north of the front will hold temperatures in the lower to mid 50s
across the northern and western portion of the forecast area, with
upper 50s and lower 60s to the south of the boundary in the Big
Bend. Highs right along the boundary will be tricky with any
undulations having a significant impact on temperatures.

By Wednesday, a shortwave ejecting from the southwestern states
will force low pressure to develop over the western Gulf. The low
is forecast to track just offshore and then into the southeastern
Big Bend Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Divergence aloft
coupled with strong isentropic lift (thanks to a 50-60 knots 850mb
jet) will provide plenty of forcing for widespread rain on
Wednesday. A stripe of widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals are
likely somewhere, with current indications favoring the Big Bend
into South Central Georgia for the heaviest rainfall.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Seasonably cool and dry weather will be on tap to start the
extended period as the previously mentioned system exits the
region. The upper flow along the Gulf Coast is forecast to return
to a zonal configuration pretty quickly behind this system,
keeping the bulk of the arctic air confined well north of the
area. Should see a warming trend kick in by the weekend as heights
begin to rise and high temperatures reach back into the mid to
upper 60s.


.Marine...
Winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as a
cold front stalls over the waters. Conditions will remain below
headline levels until Wednesday, when winds and seas will increase
ahead of a low pressure system moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will build in behind the low pressure, keeping winds
and seas elevated into the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next
several days due to a series of frontal systems that will bring
rain to the area Tuesday and Wednesday.


.Hydrology...
On Wednesday, a low pressure system is poised to bring moderate
to heavy rainfall to the area with widespread totals in the 2-3"
range and isolated higher totals possible. This will cause several
of our area rivers to rise into action stage. At this time,
flooding is not expected, but if widespread rainfall amounts
exceed 3 inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek and Ochlockonee,
Aucilla, and upper Withlacoochee River basins could approach minor
flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  58  47  55  45 /  60  60  30  90  80
Panama City   45  54  45  56  45 /  50  50  40  90  60
Dothan        38  50  41  45  37 /  70  60  30  90  60
Albany        40  53  41  48  38 /  70  70  20  90  70
Valdosta      45  56  46  56  44 /  70  70  30  90  80
Cross City    53  62  49  62  53 /  30  30  30  70  80
Apalachicola  50  59  49  61  45 /  40  50  40  90  70

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP/MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE






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