Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 091510

1110 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional 12Z analysis shows the remnants of the frontal boundary
over our area roughly from Apalachicola to Valdosta. With drier air
moving in behind the front, chances of rain will be much lower today
to the north and west of this line. Near and ahead of this boundary
in the south central Georgia and Florida Big Bend region, we will
once again see afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but they will
have much lower rainfall rates than what we saw this weekend.
Highs today will be about normal staying around 90.


[Through 12Z Wednesday] MVFR-IFR cigs are expected to break out over
the next hour or two, with VFR prevailing at ECP, DHN, and ABY,
behind the frontal boundary. Thunderstorms may effect ECP, but
conditions are expected to stay VFR. MVFR conditions are likely once
again this afternoon during thunderstorms at TLH and VLD and
MVFR-IFR cigs and vsbys once again in the early morning at DHN, ABY,
and VLD.


.Prev Discussion [208 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The subtropical upper ridge axis will become re-established as it
stretches east to west from the western Atlantic across the entire
Gulf Coast region. A ribbon of deeper moisture will reside over our
easternmost zones on Wednesday where PoPs will be at their highest
(40%). Otherwise, with the increasing heights and subsidence drying
we will see a notable decrease in convection across the Tri-state
region (20-30%). Temps will be a few degrees above normal through
the period.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The upper ridge will be in place at the beginning of the extended
period. Then, the models continue to show a trend toward shifting
the long wave trough axis from the central to the eastern U.S.
over the weekend with a slight amplification into the Southeast.
The associated cold front will edge toward the region and
eventually stall/wash out over the forecast area. While our
northwestern zones will see some relief from the humidity and
lower PoPs, the southeastern half will not be so lucky with more
unsettled conditions keeping PoPs at or above climo from Friday
onward. Temps will be close to normal, but dip below normal across
our northern zones late in the period.


A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through
most of the week. This will keep winds and seas well below any
headline criteria.

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns.


Recent heavy rainfall across the forecast area has lowered flash
flood guidance (FFG) slightly into the 2-3"/hr range in many
spots, with a few spots below 2"/hr in the vicinity of Albany.
Radar estimates indicate that we have seen values close to these
values already today, so we will continue to monitor for isolated
flash flooding. The recent rains also now have most area rivers
rising. However, it will take quite some time before we need to be
concerned about any river flooding.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  72  93  73  93 /  50  50  30  10  20
Panama City   88  74  92  76  89 /  40  20  30  10  20
Dothan        90  72  92  72  93 /  30  20  20  10  20
Albany        90  72  93  73  93 /  40  20  20  10  20
Valdosta      88  70  93  71  92 /  50  30  40  10  20
Cross City    88  71  92  71  91 /  60  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  87  73  90  76  88 /  50  30  20  10  30


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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