Area Forecast Discussion
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434
FXUS62 KTAE 241404
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Forecast is on track for a cool, clear fall day. A weak pressure
pattern is in place over the southeast at the surface with light
winds from the north. At upper levels, a shortwave trough is
deepening as it passes over the southeast. This is helping develop
and keep upper level clouds over the area, which will move
eastward through the day as the trough does.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with cigs around 20kft. Winds today will be from the NNE
at less than 10 knots, calming again overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [226 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Upper trough over the region tonight will slide eastward through
the weekend and be replaced by an upper ridge by Sunday. A very
dry and seasonable airmass will remain in place with slowly
modifying temperatures. Low temperature in the mid to upper 40s
tonight will warm to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning.
Highs in the upper 70s on Saturday will rise to the lower 80s by
Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday.
At that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this
trough will slide eastward. However, there are differences among
the models in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high
pressure over the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the
Southeast U.S. coast early next work week. The position of the
deep layer ridging just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum.
Slight chance PoPs do not return return to the forecast until
Wednesday and Thursday. A front will be approaching from the
northwest on Thursday. However, the 12Z run of the GFS is now
much less progressive than earlier runs to bring it through the
forecast area. The consensus of the current suite of model
guidance keeps any weak tropical lows confined to the Caribbean
Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.


.Marine...
High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south
will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the
weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the
overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High
pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday
with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides
eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will continue through the next few days across the
region. Relative humidity values will approach critical levels in
North Florida on Friday and Saturday afternoons, but red flag
criteria are not expected to be met.


.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  44  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  54  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  46  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  46  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  46  78  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  46  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  52  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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