Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231924

324 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The surface cold front that was analyzed south of the region this
morning has largely dissipated. High pressure is building across
the Mid Atlantic States and moderate northeasterly flow prevails
across the region. Though it has taken some time, the low
cloudiness has finally scattered out across the region with
temperatures now in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight, even
though it remains quite dry aloft, model guidance still shows
plenty of low level moisture remaining to generate a 2nd round of
stratus. Temperatures will continue to be noticeably cooler with
lows around 60 in our northern zones to the mid 60s in North

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Upper low currently over the Carolinas is forecast to gradually
weaken and lift northeastward over the next several days. At the
surface, a trough of low pressure will remain in place along the
southeastern U.S. coast. Combined with high pressure centered over
New England, this will keep northeasterly flow in place across the
forecast area through Thursday night. With the trajectory of the
low-level flow, and little upper support for precipitation, expect
most of the rainfall to be concentrated over northeast Florida.
However, showers may occasionally get far enough east to impact
the southeastern Big Bend so have include slight chance to low
chance PoPs through the forecast period. Rain chances may begin to
increase a bit more for this region by late Thursday as deeper
moisture begins to return to the area.

High temperatures will remain near near (or a degree or two below)
normal for Wednesday before warming slightly on Thursday (with
highs in the mid to upper 80s).

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Guidance is in pretty good agreement through the weekend, with
deep moisture gradually increasing across the forecast area from
south to north. The increase in moisture (as well as PoPs) will be
due to a combination of a weak tropical wave approaching from the
southeast and deepening southerly flow across the southeastern
states ahead of a digging trough over the southern Plains. Expect
to see an increase in PoPs south of I-10 on Friday, spreading to
the remainder of the forecast area by Saturday and Sunday. The
weather is likely to remain wet and unsettled into early next week
as the upper trough and associated front slowly moves eastward.
Temperatures should remain near seasonal norms for early fall.


[Through 18Z Wednesday] MVFR cigs finally have lifted at DHN/ABY
and expect VFR conditions to prevail through at least 06z.
Thereafter, some of the model guidance indicates a redevelopment
of the stratus deck across the region with at least MVFR
conditions at all sites before sunrise. These MVFR restrictions
should last til at least 15z, if not a little longer on Wednesday


Winds and seas will continue to increase overnight as the
gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and a trough
of low pressure off the southeast coast. Expect to see Small
Craft Advisory conditions overnight, with conditions remaining
near exercise caution levels through the remainder of the week.


.Fire Weather...
Gradually increasing moisture levels over the next several days
will preclude red flag criteria from being reached. Dispersion
indices could exceed 75 across parts of the Apalachicola National
Forest on Wednesday.


Rainfall totals through Friday will be minimal. More significant
rainfall will be possible over the weekend into early next week.
However, this rain is not expected to have a significant impact on
river levels at this time.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  85  65  87  69 /  10  10  10  10  20
Panama City   68  85  68  86  71 /  10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        61  83  62  84  65 /   0   0  10   0  10
Albany        62  81  62  85  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      63  82  63  86  68 /   0  10  10  10  20
Cross City    66  86  66  88  69 /  10  20  20  30  30
Apalachicola  70  85  69  86  72 /  10  10  10  10  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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