Area Forecast Discussion
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248
FXUS62 KTAE 211944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO FOR MANY DAYS NOW IS FINALLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL INDUCE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY FORM AN A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST ALL THE WAY TO NORTH FLORIDA AND BEYOND. IT
IS THE LATTER FEATURE AND THE SEA BREEZE THAT WILL TOUCH OFF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEER
AROUND 40 KT, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH
THE FRONT EDGING GRADUALLY INLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS
DPVA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. POPS WILL RANGE
FROM LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.


.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS AND AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT
AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY STRONG.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER A COOL TUESDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT BEFORE COOLING AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
06Z. AFTER THAT TIME, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DESPITE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. MODEST
RISES IN AREA RIVERS TO ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  82  62  77  52 /  40  70  70  60  10
PANAMA CITY   65  74  65  72  55 /  30  70  60  20  10
DOTHAN        61  75  59  67  51 /  70  90  70  40  10
ALBANY        60  73  57  63  49 /  60  90  90  60  10
VALDOSTA      63  80  61  69  51 /  50  80  80  70  10
CROSS CITY    63  83  64  80  52 /  20  30  50  60  10
APALACHICOLA  65  77  66  76  58 /  20  50  60  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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