Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

720
FXUS62 KTAE 132022
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A strong frontal system will affect the area over the next 24
hours, bringing with it a threat for severe storms and heavy
rainfall. In terms of severe weather, the main threat will come
late tonight through early Tuesday afternoon in the form of the
squall line that is currently back across the MS/LA area. Straight
line winds will be the main threat, but we cannot rule out a small
chance of an isolated tornado either with rather high low-level
shear values in place. SPC has the entire area outlooked in a
slight risk for severe storms. The flash flood threat will come
from the potential for training convection from south to north out
ahead of the main squall line. WPC has roughly the same area as
the flash flood watch outlooked for a moderate risk of excessive
rainfall.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
There may be some lingering convection into early Tuesday night
across the eastern portions of the area just ahead of the front.
Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will be moving into the area
in the wake of the front.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Dry weather is expected through the period with high pressure in
the wake of the strong cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will
be within a few degrees of average for this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] Best chance for TS will be near the coast
this afternoon. Overnight TS will move in from the west as a cold
front approaches. MVFR conditions are expected overnight and
during the morning hours. IFR conditions will likely be brief. A
stronger line of TS will likely develop in the morning and move
through the area from west to east. Some storms could be severe.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will continue to increase in response to a sharp
pressure difference between the approaching low pressure from the
west and high pressure over the western Atlantic. Winds and seas
should fall below advisory levels Tuesday evening as the pressure
pattern becomes weak behind the departing low.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with
drying conditions for Wednesday. Red flag conditions are not
expected at least through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts in excess
of 6 inches in a short period of time are possible across the flash
flood watch area through Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere, around 1 to
2 inches of rain is expected. River levels are starting out
fairly low, so even though some decent rises are expected across
the western basins, main stem river flooding is not expected at
this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  82  58  80  50 /  70 100  50   0   0
Panama City   75  81  60  79  57 / 100 100  10   0   0
Dothan        70  80  53  78  51 / 100 100  10   0   0
Albany        72  80  57  78  52 /  60 100  40  10   0
Valdosta      71  82  61  79  51 /  30 100  70  10  10
Cross City    71  84  68  81  52 /  30  80  70  10  10
Apalachicola  76  82  62  79  57 /  90 100  30   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through
     Tuesday afternoon for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-
     South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for Clay-Decatur-Early-Miller-Seminole.

AL...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.