Area Forecast Discussion
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998
FXUS62 KTAE 182017
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

As a dry cold front crosses the tri-state area, winds from the
northwest may gust to around 20 MPH this afternoon. Skies will stay
mostly clear with this front though, allowing highs are expected to
peak in the mid 60s to around 70 in the eastern Florida Big Bend.
Tonight, as a cooler, drier airmass moves in and high pressure
settles along the Florida Panhandle, winds will calm we`ll see
temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

With nearly zonal flow aloft and a generally weak Sfc pressure
pattern, the majority of the period should be quiet and feature a
continued moderating trend in temperatures. In fact, high temps on
Tuesday may reach or exceed 70 degrees over much of the interior,
after morning lows begin from the middle 30s to the lower 40s. The
only question mark at this point is will a weak disturbance passing
through on Tuesday night be able to produce a slight chance of rain
across parts of the region or not. At this time, went with 20
percent PoPs to the north and 20 percent to the south, with a small
gap of no weather in between. Regardless, any rain that does fall
over our region will be very light, with total accumulations of a
few hundredths of an inch or less.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After one more fair and mild day on Wednesday, a developing low
pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico combined with cool high
pressure off to the northwest may make for yet another period of
cold and wet conditions across the region for the end of the week.
At this time, however, it appears this system should clear the
region by next weekend with a likely return to fair and seasonable
conditions.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Winds from the northwest may gust up to around 20 knots this
afternoon with a dry cold front passage, but will become light and
variable overnight as high pressure settles in along the Florida
Panhandle in its wake.

&&

.Marine...

After the brief surge in winds and seas dies off across the coastal
waters late this afternoon, light winds and low seas should be the
rule through mid week. By the end of the week, however, a developing
low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will likely tighten the
pressure pattern significantly over the marine area, with headline
conditions likely making a return to the waters by late Thursday or
Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With dry air in place behind the cold front, RH values will approach
critical values on Monday. However, winds and ERC values will not be
sufficient to reach red flag conditions. Moisture will increase on
Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area rivers and streams should continue to slowly subside across the
HSA for the next several days, with no significant rainfall on the
horizon. The next chance for a widespread wetting rainfall across
the basins is not expected until the very end of next week.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  69  35  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   39  65  46  68  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        35  65  41  68  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        33  66  38  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      35  68  36  70  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    34  69  34  72  47 /   0   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  38  65  44  66  52 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GOULD







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