Area Forecast Discussion
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371
FXUS62 KTAE 140749
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 11 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from the southeast LA coast, through Columbus, GA, to the east
coast of NC. Outflow from the numerous storms Saturday evening had
flipped the winds across much of our forecast area to the north, but
that was not the cold front, and we expect these winds to return to
light E-SE flow later this morning. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a narrow ridge along the Gulf Coast, so we don`t expect any
further progress of the aforementioned front, and very little (if
any) Q-G forcing. However, deep layer moisture remains plentiful,
and mesoscale forcing and/or weak convergence near the nearby front
will help generate scattered deep moist convection this afternoon.
Our PoP is in the 30-50% range, with the highest PoP north of Dothan
and Albany (nearest the frontal system), and around the Panama City
area (where the CAMs show more favorable sea breeze forcing). Highs
will be in the lower to mid 90s. The synoptic environment doesn`t
appears favorable for widespread flooding and/or severe storms,
though we can`t completely rule out an isolated, marginal incident
of either.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Rain chances will be gradually increasing through the short term
period as the "dirty" upper level ridge (with plenty of deep layer
moisture still underneath it) continues to weaken over the next
couple of days, before being replaced by a slowly steepening trof
over the SE U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lingering PoPs this
evening will range from 30% over much of the interior, with a small
area of 40%s across N portions of our AL and GA zones. On Monday, as
the southerly flow increases over the region, PoPs will rise from
40% south and 30% north in the morning, to 50% south and 60% north
by the afternoon, and once again linger well into the evening hours.
On Tuesday, as the upper level trof begins to become better
established, widespread 60% PoPs (with even a few areas of 70%) are
expected across the CWA. This pattern change could result in the
potential for more widespread heavy rainfall over the region through
mid week, before a significant punch of drier air works into the
area from the northwest by the end of the week as mentioned in the
long term discussion below. Initially, temps should still average a
few degrees above climo, but high temps on Tuesday may need a slight
downward adjustment based on the final cloud cover and rainfall
chances.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...

Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a
stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients
point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance
of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is
possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture
expected to be in place. A drying trend is possible for most of
the area with the exception of the southeast big bend near the end
of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south.
Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal
through most of the week.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 06z Monday] There were some mixed signals among the latest
NWP guidance for the overnight and early morning period. Based on
recent rain and satellite imagery (which showed a gradual clearing
trend across much of our forecast area), we think there is a good
chance for periods of low-end MVFR cigs and vis at KDHN, KECP, and
KABY between 10z and 14z. (The 02z HRRR forecast LIFR conditions,
while most of the MOS forecast high-end MVFR conditions). Generally
VFR conditions are expected by late morning through afternoon and
evening, except in isolated to scattered TSRA. The highest PoP is at
KECP. Elsewhere the PoP is currently too low to mention TSRA in the
TAFs.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will remain a bit elevated across the offshore legs
today and Monday, as a trough of low pressure (the remnants of a
weak tropical disturbance) passes well to the south of the marine
area. Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected over the
coastal waters as a weak surface pressure returns to the marine
area.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least mid week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although areas of locally heavy rainfall will be possible through
mid-week, at this time it does not appear as though there will be
enough time or organization to this precipitation to cause a
widespread impact on our area rivers and streams. However, the
situation does still bear monitoring, and if the steepening of the
upper level trof and subsequent cold frontal passage are slightly
slower than expected, the hydrological outlook may need to be
re-visited.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  72  93  72  91 /  30  30  50  30  60
Panama City   90  77  89  76  88 /  50  30  50  30  60
Dothan        91  71  92  71  91 /  30  30  60  40  60
Albany        91  71  92  72  92 /  40  40  60  40  60
Valdosta      92  71  93  71  92 /  30  30  60  30  60
Cross City    92  71  91  71  91 /  30  30  50  30  60
Apalachicola  89  77  88  77  87 /  30  30  50  30  60

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






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