385
FXUS62 KTAE 190944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
544 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The shortwave trough that has been gradually moving through the
eastern U.S. will remain north and east of the Tri-State region
today as upper level ridging moves in from the west. This will
result in very few places receiving rain this afternoon. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will reside across portions of
south-central Georgia where outflow from storms to the north may
spark some convection later this afternoon. With less in the way of
cloud cover and showers, and rising heights, expect warmer
temperatures than yesterday with most inland locations climbing into
the low 90s. Overnight, showers will come to an end and temperatures
will fall into the lower to middle 60s. Fog development is expected
once again tonight. Although the showers and thunderstorms that do
develop today are expected to remain below severe limits, there may
be just enough instability and lift with some of the outflow
boundaries associated with the shortwave trof to produce a few
strong storms across our extreme NE GA zones, where the 5% outlook
area from SPC just encroaches on a few our our counties. Therefore,
we cannot rule out small hail or brief gusty winds at this time,
even though the more significant weather should remain to our north.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...
Fairly interesting (though mostly uneventful) forecast over the
short term period, as the early summerlike conditions are expected
to continue across the Tri-State area. High Temps should reach the
lower 90s over many interior locations, with rain chances limited to
the 20-30 percent range across the eastern half of the CWA, with
only silent 10 PoPs over our western area. This activity will
manifest itself in the form of isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, associated with a shortwave trof of low
pressure, which is currently pushing southeastward through northern
and central portions of GA.

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...
Long range models in general agreement with the overall pattern for
this time period. An upper level ridge prevails across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday with an upper low in the northern/central
plains. This pattern shifts east later in the week resulting in a
weak trough across the area for Thursday and Friday. By Saturday
current trends are pointing toward ridging across the central CONUS.
POPs will increase for the Thursday-Friday period to 30-40% and drop
off to isolated activity for Tuesday and Saturday. Expect
typical diurnal cycle convection with highs and overnight lows both
slightly above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
Low ceiling and visibility restrictions will lift shortly after
sunrise this morning. All sites will then remain VFR through the
evening hours. Later tonight, fog development is expected once
again, and may be more widespread with the reduction of mid/upper
level clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate
our coastal waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected in the
foreseeable future.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little widespread rain in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  64  90  66  90 / 10  10  20  10  20
Panama City   83  68  85  69  84 /  0   0  10  10  10
Dothan        91  66  92  66  92 / 10  10  10  10  10
Albany        91  66  91  66  91 / 20  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      93  64  92  65  91 / 20  10  30  20  30
Cross City    91  63  88  64  89 / 10  10  30  20  30
Apalachicola  81  66  84  68  82 /  0   0  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan/Gould
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Hollingsworth
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould