Area Forecast Discussion
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800
FXUS62 KTAE 161326
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Forecast is on track this morning for another clear and cool day. At
the upper levels, a negatively tilted trough lies over the Ohio
Valley, giving us northwest flow aloft. At the surface, there is
high pressure along the western Gulf coast, keeping a weak pressure
pattern in place over our area. This pattern will keep us clear and
dry with light winds from the northwest and highs in the upper 70s
to around 80.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR will prevail with winds from the northwest
at 10 knots or less.

&&

.Prev Discussion [302 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal through Friday as
the upper low over the Great Lakes lifts northeast. By Saturday,
the eastern trough is forecast to deepen and push a dry cold front
towards the Gulf Coast.

For tonight, temperatures will cool into the upper 40s as high
pressure centered over the forecast area will allow for good
radiational cooling conditions. The increasingly zonal upper flow
for Friday into Saturday will yield milder temperatures (lower 80s
Friday afternoon to mid 80s Saturday afternoon). No rain is
expected through Saturday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A deep trough will remain over eastern CONUS bringing strong
northwesterly flow aloft. At the sfc, no significant features are
expected to develop. This means drier cooler air through the
extended period with no rain expected. A low is expected to develop
over the Gulf and linger there for several days. The coastal
waters could see some cloud cover from this low, but rain is
unlikely. Highs will hold steady in the upper 70s/low 80s, which
is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly
below normal, in the lower to middle 50s.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will continue to diminish today as high pressure
east from the western Gulf of Mexico. Light winds and low seas
will then continue through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
RH values the next couple days should fall to between 30-35% at
most locations. While this is a dry air mass, it is not sufficient
for red flag conditions. Increasing moisture is expected this
weekend, although chances for rain will remain low.


.Hydrology...
There are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   79  47  81  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   80  56  81  62  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  48  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  48  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  50  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    80  48  81  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  55  79  61  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...CAMP






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