Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

521
FXUS62 KTAE 161845
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A few showers and thunderstorms have developed along the sea breeze
in southern Okaloosa County just west of our area early this
afternoon. To account for this, we have added "isolated storms" to
the forecast along the sea breeze in Walton County and western
Washington and Bay Counties with a 10% PoP. Other than that, the
very dry air in the mid-levels will continue to suppress convection
over much of the area through 06Z. Late tonight, especially after
09-10Z, an increase in low-level moisture and isentropic ascent may
lead to some isolated-scattered showers and storms in the southwest
part of our area - particularly the coastal waters and the western
Florida Panhandle.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
With low level high pressure and generally zonal flow aloft, the
sea-breeze will take over. Forecast 1000-700 mb flow is forecast to
be from the west-southwest at around 10 knots both days, making them
borderline regime 4/regime 5 days. A dry airmass in place will keep
PoPs slightly lower than normal for these usually very wet patterns
for our area. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s near the
coastline, lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Stacked high pressure through the period will allow the sea-breeze
circulation will once again become the main driving force for our
local weather. With a drier than normal airmass in place, chances
will be somewhat lower than climo and temperatures will be slightly
warmer than climo. Highs will be in the mid 90s, low 90s along the
immediate coast, and lows will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along
the immediate coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of
the afternoon and most of tonight. Late tonight - after 10Z - an
increase in lower stratus clouds is possible at ECP with MVFR CIGS,
as well as some scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR CIGS also
couldn`t be ruled out at DHN and TLH, but that is less likely. Rain
showers and thunderstorms may spread to the other terminals later on
Sunday, especially after 18Z.


&&

.Marine...
With high pressure over the northern Gulf for most of the period,
winds will generally be from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less,
with surges along the coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings.
Waves will stay in the 1 to 2 feet range through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. The
lack of significant, widespread rain the next few days will continue
to allow fuels and soil moisture to dry.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals through Monday are expected to range from .25 to .50
inches. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  94  75  95  76 /  10  40  10  30  10
Panama City   78  89  78  90  78 /  30  50  20  30  20
Dothan        72  94  74  94  74 /  10  40  10  30  20
Albany        71  95  75  94  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      71  97  73  97  74 /  10  20  10  30  10
Cross City    74  93  74  93  74 /  20  30  10  30  10
Apalachicola  77  89  77  90  77 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER/LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.