Area Forecast Discussion
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883
FXUS62 KTAE 150108
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

As the cold front passes through the Tri-State region tonight,
cooler and drier air will overspread in its wake. There is a
little bit of re-development expected along the front later
tonight in the southeast Big Bend, primarily Dixie county.
However, it should just be a few showers and be rather quick to
move southeast out of the region. Expect lows to range from near
50 degrees across southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle, to
the lower-to-middle 60s at Cross City.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

IFR ceilings at VLD will move east away from the terminal within
the next few hours. VFR conditions will then prevail at all
terminals through the remainder of the TAF.

&&

.Prev Discussion [249 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A large upper level low pressure system will cover the eastern
third of the country on Wednesday. It will only gradually be
absorbed back into the mean longwave trough through Thursday. At
the surface, high pressure will nose into the Tri-State region on
Wednesday, with the surface ridge overspreading the entire
Southeast by Thursday night. No rain and seasonable temperatures
are expected. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s each
afternoon, with overnight lows around 50 degrees away from the
coast.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally
through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will
remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold
steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of
year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle
50s.


.Marine...

Advisory level winds will subside through cautionary levels
tonight, before headline conditions are no longer met late
tonight. Winds will remain near headline levels through Thursday
when the calm center of high pressure moves closer to our Gulf
waters. Thereafter, low winds and seas should prevail into next
week.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will dip through the week behind a cold
front passage. The forecast at this time is that they will not dip
into the lower 30s or upper 20s until Friday by which time the post
frontal winds will have already subsided. No red flag conditions are
forecast this week.


.Hydrology...

Several area rivers have shown sharp rises in response to the rain
that fell over the past 24-36 hours. However, prior to this rain
event river levels were so low that it is unlikely any of our
forecast points will reach minor flood stage. In fact, only a few
points along the Shoal and Choctawhatchee rivers are forecast to
remain in, or reach action stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  80  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   61  77  56  77  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        52  77  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        54  77  50  77  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      56  79  51  77  50 /  10   0  10   0   0
Cross City    65  80  52  79  52 /  60  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  60  77  56  76  57 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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