Area Forecast Discussion
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017
FXUS62 KTAE 200833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

We are on track to see a widespread hard freeze across the region
this morning. In fact, the hard freeze is already underway in some
areas. The massive upper low will lift northeast today with nearly
zonal flow in place across the Gulf Coast states by day`s end.
Surface high pressure will slide southeast from the Tennessee Valley
to coastal North Carolina today which will veer our winds to a more
mild easterly direction. We therefore expect a greater temperature
recovery today under full sun. Max temps in the 40s will be limited
to areas north of a Valdosta to Dothan line with lower 50s to the
south of that line.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Over the course of the short range forecast, the anomalous eastern
CONUS trough will lift out of the Southeast with mostly zonal flow
prevailing aloft as the southern stream lifts north. By Sunday, a
northern and southern stream anomaly will merge over the Southern
Plains and move east into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. At the
surface, high pressure will follow behind the departing trough,
veering flow to the south Saturday through Sunday. Through the day
Sunday, a cold front will near the Tri-State region associated
with the aforementioned merging systems.

As far as rain chances are concerned, we`ll remain mostly dry
through Sunday. Saturday features no chance for rain, while a
slight chance exits on Sunday as weak isentropic ascent may occur
with the veering low-layer flow and some rain may creep into our
westernmost counties associated with the approaching frontal
system. So, the best chance for rain on Sunday will be west of the
Apalachicola river in Florida, and across southeast AL and extreme
southwest GA.

A drastic change in temperatures is expected during the period.
Both Saturday and Sunday will feature above average daytime
temperatures, with highs in the low 70s on Saturday, and possibly
in the middle to upper 70s on Sunday. While we`ll have one more
night in the 30s tonight, Saturday night will likely be in the 50s
everywhere.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a lot of uncertainty in the extended range forecast as
the GFS and ECMWF cannot agree on the strength of a northern
stream anomaly diving through the Plains. Thus, this difference
propagates into just how the northern stream will affect the
southern stream, and subsequently how the surface patterns evolve
locally. Either way, it appears as though we`ll be transitioning
over to a wet period with the possibility for two frontal systems,
one early next week, and another later in the week. With a more
active pattern, expect average temperatures to be slightly below
normal, though the coldest air would likely be behind the second
system late in the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will gradually increase through today, eventually to
advisory levels tonight as the calm center of high pressure moves
east. Expect headline conditions to cease as a weak area of low
pressure moves through the Gulf late in the weekend. We`ll likely
see a couple rounds of headline levels next week as a couple of
frontal systems move into and through the Gulf.

&&

.Fire Weather...

The dry airmass will continue to encompass the region today. Red
flag warnings continue for Southeast Alabama and Walton County
Florida and have now also been issued for Leon and Wakulla Counties
in Florida. ERC values were observed very near criteria in the
latter two counties yesterday and another very dry afternoon with RH
down in the teens is expected to bump this fuel moisture component
to critical levels today. Onshore flow will increase humidity levels
substantially for Saturday with red flag conditions not expected
next week. Dispersion indices will be relatively low today and high
on Saturday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rivers are currently running low. While rain chances will return
over the weekend, rainfall totals are not expected to be sufficient
to cause any flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  36  70  51  77 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   52  45  66  58  70 /   0   0   0  20  40
Dothan        49  36  68  52  72 /   0   0   0  30  50
Albany        48  33  67  50  73 /   0   0   0  20  40
Valdosta      50  34  69  50  77 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    53  35  71  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  53  45  65  58  70 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
     afternoon for Central Walton-Inland Walton-South Walton.

     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
     afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM EST this evening until 7 PM
     EST Saturday evening for waters from Destin to the
     Ochlockonee River out to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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