Area Forecast Discussion
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516
FXUS62 KTAE 100809
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Expect a large scale pattern change in the wake of upper trough
exiting into Atlc thru the day allowing a transition to near zonal
flow across the Srn stream. At surface...day begins with high
just to our west before it slides Ewd into Atlc by sunset. Per
RAP13 soundings...this yields low level flow shifting from
offshore to onshore thru the day with dry WNW flow above H8. PWATs
hover around 0.4 inches. All this translates to sunny
skies....light winds and high temps in the upper 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term. At the surface,
high pressure will gradually slide eastward through Saturday with
temperatures exhibiting a gradual warming trend, although
generally remaining within a few degrees of average for this time
of year.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The beginning of the period starts with zonal flow aloft,
transitioning into a ridging pattern early Sunday keeping
conditions benign. The next chance for rain will take place Monday
afternoon as the next upper trough approaches, with PoPs
remaining in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday morning. Although
the GFS and Euro handle the upper level patterns around this time
differently, they generally agree on the timing of rain and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain average for the time of
year until Tuesday when highs will drop about 10 degrees across
the area into the lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
Light northerly winds early will become southerly 5 to 10 MPH by
late morning...then calm after sunset.

&&

.Marine...
With high pressure forecast to remain in place through Saturday,
winds and seas will remain low. An increase in southeasterly flow
is possible on Sunday with winds up to 15 knots as high pressure
slides east of the area.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will be in place today with relative humidities
in the afternoon dropping into the low to mid 20 percent range.
While the duration criteria will be met in Florida, the ERC values
are quite low (with the exception of Leon/Wakulla). Similarly,
in GA/AL relative humidity values will approach/exceed critical
levels, but other required criteria will not be met. The airmass
will slowly moisten on Friday and throughout the weekend, thus red
flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Several basins continue to experience flooding or are forecast to
receive flooding at various points, including the Pea River,
Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Kinchafoonee Creek, and
Spring Creek. Other basins such as the Flint River, Ochlockonee
River, Aucilla River, and Withlacoochee River are in action stage
but are not currently forecast to reach flood stage, although
Thomasville and Concord on the Ochlockonee are forecast to crest
within a couple tenths of a foot of flood stage.

The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  47  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   74  55  76  59  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        78  49  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        79  48  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  47  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  53  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP/HELLER
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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