Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 140108

908 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014


.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The forecast still looks like it is mostly on track with no
changes to the current watches or previous thinking below. One
addition is that we are more concerned for isolated tornadoes
across the Florida Panhandle given a mesoscale warm frontal
boundary stretching across the area (east wind at ECP). We have
already seen a few brief tornadoes (confirmed with dual-pol data),
but so far they have been in forested areas with no damage to
structures reported.

A strong frontal system will affect the area over the next 24 hours,
bringing with it a threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall. In
terms of severe weather, the main threat will come late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon in the form of the squall line that
is currently back across the MS/LA area. Straight line winds will be
the main threat, but we cannot rule out a small chance of an
isolated tornado either with rather high low-level shear values in
place. SPC has the entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe
storms. The flash flood threat will come from the potential for
training convection from south to north out ahead of the main squall
line. WPC has roughly the same area as the flash flood watch
outlooked for a moderate risk of excessive rainfall.


[Through 00Z Wednesday] Rain showers with isolated thunder are
already over the westernmost terminals. Overnight TS will become
more widespread as a cold front approaches from the west. MVFR
conditions are expected overnight and during the morning hours. IFR
conditions will likely be brief. A stronger line of TS will likely
develop in the morning and move through the area from west to east.
Some storms could be severe. Gusty winds are the primary threat with
these storms.


.Prev Discussion [422 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
There may be some lingering convection into early Tuesday night
across the eastern portions of the area just ahead of the front.
Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will be moving into the area
in the wake of the front.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Dry weather is expected through the period with high pressure in
the wake of the strong cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will
be within a few degrees of average for this time of year.

Winds and seas will continue to increase in response to a sharp
pressure difference between the approaching low pressure from the
west and high pressure over the western Atlantic. Winds and seas
should fall below advisory levels Tuesday evening as the pressure
pattern becomes weak behind the departing low.

.Fire Weather...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with
drying conditions for Wednesday. Red flag conditions are not
expected at least through the remainder of the week.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts in excess
of 6 inches in a short period of time are possible across the flash
flood watch area through Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere, around 1 to
2 inches of rain is expected. River levels are starting out
fairly low, so even though some decent rises are expected across
the western basins, main stem river flooding is not expected at
this time.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  82  58  80  50 /  70 100  50   0   0
Panama City   75  81  60  79  57 / 100 100  10   0   0
Dothan        70  80  53  78  51 / 100 100  10   0   0
Albany        72  80  57  78  52 /  60 100  40  10   0
Valdosta      71  82  61  79  51 /  30 100  70  10  10
Cross City    71  84  68  81  52 /  30  80  70  10  10
Apalachicola  76  82  62  79  57 /  90 100  30   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Clay-Decatur-

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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