Area Forecast Discussion
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012
FXUS62 KTAE 200043
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
843 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY] AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS APPEAR LIKELY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z. CONDITIONS WILL
GRAUDALLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...MORE SLOWLY IN GA
AND AL. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT FOR A 10 KT ONSHORE BREEZE
AT KECP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [353 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG (OR JUST INLAND
FROM) THE GULF COAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION AS
THEY TRANSLATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ATOP THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. THE
HIGHEST POPS (30 TO 50 PERCENT) WILL GENERALLY BE IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...AS THIS REGION
WILL BE CLOSER TO THESE IMPULSES AND FURTHER INTO THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE THE POPS WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS...AS ANY
FORCING WILL COME FROM MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HOWEVER...HIGHS AT THE BEACHES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE COOL COASTAL WATERS AND
ONSHORE SEA BREEZES.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING WITH
IT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. BUT FOR
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY (WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


.MARINE...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RIVER FLOODING...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF
1-2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW RIVERS TO
REACH ACTION STAGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS AS THOUGH
IT WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   62  86  63  86  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY   65  76  65  76  65 /  10  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN        60  80  62  81  62 /  20  30  30  20  40
ALBANY        59  81  61  80  60 /  20  20  30  20  30
VALDOSTA      62  83  63  82  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
CROSS CITY    61  84  62  84  63 /  10  10  20  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  76  65  76  66 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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