Area Forecast Discussion
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891 FXUS62 KTAE 100148 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 948 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... Much less convective coverage occurred today as drier air slipped over the northwestern half of the Tri-State region and the persistent mid-level wave faded away. Just a few light showers remain along outflow from today`s storms generated along a surface trough across north-central Florida, and a weak frontal boundary across south-central and southeast Georgia. There will remain the possibility for showers and an isolated thunderstorm offshore tonight in a weakly convergent easterly flow regime. && .Aviation... [Through 00Z Thursday]... With plenty of low-level moisture still in place, expect another round of low ceilings and visibilities tonight. All terminals are forecast to fall to IFR at some point through the night, gradually lifting through MVFR during the mid-morning hours, returning to VFR in the early afternoon. There is a low chance for storms tomorrow, only mentioning VCTS at TLH and ECP. && .Prev Discussion [206 PM EDT]... .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... The upper trough along the U.S. east coast will shift offshore and allow the ridge over TX to build back to the east. 590-dm heights will be over the area Wednesday and Thursday. This feature will tend to suppress convective coverage over what we have seen recently with PoPs generally in the 20-30% range both days. The reduction in storm coverage will of course be accompanied by an corresponding increase in afternoon temps. Look for highs to be 3-4 degrees above normal both days. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... The upper ridge will be weakened by a tropical wave that will pass south of the area across the Gulf of Mexico. Once the wave axis passes west of the region, we will see an increase in deep layer moisture. A front will also stall just northwest of the forecast area. These features will increase rain chances somewhat over the weekend, but particularly into early next week. .Marine... A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through the week. This will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity will remain above 40 percent this week, preventing us from reaching red flag conditions. .Hydrology... Recent rains have most area rivers rising now. However, overall coverage of showers and storms will drop off over the next couple of days, and with antecedent low flows, there are no imminent flooding concerns. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 72 93 73 94 73 / 30 20 10 30 10 Panama City 76 90 76 90 76 / 30 30 10 30 20 Dothan 71 91 72 94 72 / 40 20 10 30 10 Albany 71 92 72 94 73 / 40 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 70 92 71 93 72 / 30 20 20 30 10 Cross City 70 92 71 92 71 / 20 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 76 89 77 89 76 / 30 30 10 30 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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