Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KTAE 100148
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Much less convective coverage occurred today as drier air slipped
over the northwestern half of the Tri-State region and the
persistent mid-level wave faded away. Just a few light showers
remain along outflow from today`s storms generated along a
surface trough across north-central Florida, and a weak frontal
boundary across south-central and southeast Georgia. There will
remain the possibility for showers and an isolated thunderstorm
offshore tonight in a weakly convergent easterly flow regime.
[Through 00Z Thursday]...
With plenty of low-level moisture still in place, expect another
round of low ceilings and visibilities tonight. All terminals are
forecast to fall to IFR at some point through the night, gradually
lifting through MVFR during the mid-morning hours, returning to
VFR in the early afternoon. There is a low chance for storms
tomorrow, only mentioning VCTS at TLH and ECP.
.Prev Discussion [206 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The upper trough along the U.S. east coast will shift offshore and
allow the ridge over TX to build back to the east. 590-dm heights
will be over the area Wednesday and Thursday. This feature will tend
to suppress convective coverage over what we have seen recently with
PoPs generally in the 20-30% range both days. The reduction in storm
coverage will of course be accompanied by an corresponding increase
in afternoon temps. Look for highs to be 3-4 degrees above normal
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The upper ridge will be weakened by a tropical wave that will pass
south of the area across the Gulf of Mexico. Once the wave axis
passes west of the region, we will see an increase in deep layer
moisture. A front will also stall just northwest of the forecast
area. These features will increase rain chances somewhat over the
weekend, but particularly into early next week.
A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through
the week. This will keep winds and seas well below any headline
Relative humidity will remain above 40 percent this week, preventing
us from reaching red flag conditions.
Recent rains have most area rivers rising now. However, overall
coverage of showers and storms will drop off over the next couple of
days, and with antecedent low flows, there are no imminent flooding
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 93 73 94 73 / 30 20 10 30 10
Panama City 76 90 76 90 76 / 30 30 10 30 20
Dothan 71 91 72 94 72 / 40 20 10 30 10
Albany 71 92 72 94 73 / 40 20 10 20 10
Valdosta 70 92 71 93 72 / 30 20 20 30 10
Cross City 70 92 71 92 71 / 20 30 20 30 20
Apalachicola 76 89 77 89 76 / 30 30 10 30 20