Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 200033

833 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Sunday]...
Short wave, which helped to generate the widespread precipitation
across the region today, has moved east of the forecast region
this evening. As a result, radar returns have diminished
significantly over the past couple of hours. Expect activity to
remain minimal through at least midnight, so have lowered PoPs
for the first half of the night. After 06z, the next shortwave
(currently over coastal Louisiana) will begin to approach the
Florida Panhandle. Expect to see convection increase over the
coastal waters by 06-09z, spreading inland over the western half
of the forecast area by 12z. Have adjusted PoPs slightly upward
during the time frame for many locations.

The approaching shortwave, coupled with deep and moist
southwesterly flow, will lead to another wet day on Sunday, with
showers and thunderstorms spreading from the Panhandle early in
the morning to the the remainder of the forecast area by mid to
late morning. Guidance is in good agreement on rather high rain
chances for Sunday, so have adjusted PoPs upward. Couple with the
higher rain chances, have adjusted max temps down a few degrees
for Sunday.

.Short Term [Sunday night through Monday night]...
Weak upper trough over the southeastern states will gradually
pinch off along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. While the
western half of the forecast area may get a respite from the wet
pattern as some drier air works down the backside of the trough,
the eastern half will likely remain unsettled with likely PoPs
expected once again. Max temperatures will likely reflect this as
well, with slightly warmer temperatures over the western portion
of the forecast area.


[Through 00Z Monday] Rain and thunderstorms from this afternoon
have diminished, but a moist environment will remain in place
overnight with the MVFR to IFR cigs expected to develop after
midnight. In addition, another round of rain with embedded
thunderstorms is expected to develop near ECP close to dawn and
spread east and north through the day on Sunday.


.Prev Discussion [333 PM EDT]...

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The first two days of the long term will be near or above climatology
in terms of rain chances while temperatures are expected to be below
climatology. The increased chances for rain will be due to general
long wave troughing over the Eastern CONUS and an upper low that is
forecast to cut off from the mean 250mb flow and move southwest. As
this low rotates around a fairly anomalous ridge over the Western
US, rain chances will remain high through Wednesday. After Wednesday
afternoon, models diverge slightly but both the Euro/GFS suggest a
return to near normal climatological rain chances. For the end of
the long term took an equal blend of HPC, Euro, and GFS guidance.

A low pressure system off to our west will increase onshore winds
slightly to the west of Apalachicola thru tonight, and a long
fetch of southerly winds deep into the Gulf of Mexico will
increase seas over our western coastal waters into the 2 to 4 foot
range. However, this will be below any headline levels, and
further to the east, winds and seas will remain significantly
lower. By Sunday and beyond, a weaker pressure pattern more
typical for summertime will return, resulting in light winds and
low seas for the rest of the period.

.Fire Weather...
A moist pattern is expected to persist for the next several days
with increased rain chances each afternoon and evening.

Radar estimates of 2 to 4 inches of rain have fallen across the
coastal counties of the FL Panhandle with lesser amounts to the
north and east. An additional 1-1.5 inches of rain is possible
through Sunday. Some minor rises are forecast on the smaller
creeks and streams, but stages will remain well below flood stage.
The coastal Panhandle counties will be most susceptible to flash
flooding is additional echoes train over that area through
tomorrow morning.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  86  73  89  72 /  40  70  40  60  50
Panama City   77  86  77  88  74 /  70  80  40  50  40
Dothan        72  87  72  91  71 /  60  70  30  40  20
Albany        72  88  71  88  72 /  40  70  40  50  30
Valdosta      71  87  72  89  71 /  30  70  50  70  50
Cross City    72  88  72  88  71 /  30  60  40  60  50
Apalachicola  77  86  75  87  75 /  60  70  40  50  50


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.




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