Area Forecast Discussion
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311 FXUS62 KTAE 231025 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 625 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]...EXTENSIVE LIFR CEILINGS ARE IMPACTING DHN/ABY THIS MORNING AND MAY SPREAD INTO VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER DAYBREAK, CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY 16Z. TLH/ECP SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON TO VFR, BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ELSEWHERE. LOW CEILINGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD BACK TO TLH/ECP AFTER SUNSET WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [410 AM EDT]...
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.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]... A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AL/GA STATE LINE. WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT LOW CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN FLORIDA, THE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THICK AND THUS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PREVENT A CLOUDY DAY - BUT THIS HEATING WILL ALSO GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH FL AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES RATHER ZONAL OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FL. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS RATHER SHALLOW...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH FL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...AND ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...THEN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]... THE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING MID WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANINED BY RAIN. MUCH COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. .MARINE... MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THEY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS. .HYDROLOGY... 24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE FROM ABOUT I-10 NORTHWWARD...EXCEPT IN THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM DESTIN TO JUST WEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. TODAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST OF THIS RAIN IN THE REGION THAT DID NOT GET MUCH RAIN SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON THE LOCAL RIVERS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 78 55 75 58 81 / 50 10 0 0 10 PANAMA CITY 75 57 70 59 75 / 30 10 10 10 10 DOTHAN 69 51 70 55 77 / 20 10 0 0 10 ALBANY 67 50 70 56 76 / 30 10 0 0 10 VALDOSTA 73 52 72 57 81 / 50 20 10 0 20 CROSS CITY 80 56 75 59 83 / 70 20 10 0 10 APALACHICOLA 76 59 72 61 75 / 40 10 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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