Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
503 FXUS62 KTAE 142108 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 408 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
With clear skies and low dewpoints expected overnight, we`ll be primed for another freeze for portions of the region. Although the aforementioned conditions would suggest the possibility for a widespread freeze, veering low layer flow will transport a slightly more maritime airmass into parts of south-central Georgia and the eastern Big Bend of Florida. Further, the more northeasterly flow will also cutoff any significant CAA over the remainder of the area. With the calm center of the ridge positioned over the Central Appalachians overnight, optimal radiational cooling is not expected. The most favorable areas for a freeze tonight will be where the driest air resides, along with the lightest winds. Thus, a freeze warning remains in effect for inland portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Lows will range from the upper 20s across southeast Alabama, to around 40 degrees near Cross City. Light winds will result in apparent temperatures around 5 degrees below actual readings. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... A brief warm-up is on tap for the weekend as the center of high pressure slides to the Carolinas and the low-level flow shifts to the east and then southeast. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 50s in the north and west to the mid 60s in the south and east. By Sunday, highs will recover into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Deep moisture will begin to increase late on Sunday as the next potent shortwave digs into the Southern Plains and surface low pressure develops along the central Gulf Coast. Expect a few showers to make it into the western portion of the forecast area by late Sunday afternoon, with the coverage increasing quickly Sunday night as a leading shortwave exits the base of the trough and lifts northeast across the area. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... Active weather will be ongoing at the beginning of the period Monday morning as a strong cold front moves across the forecast area. Guidance is showing a quick surge of 60+ dewpoints into the Panhandle and Big Bend during the morning hours, helping to generate some surface-based CAPE near the coast. With deep layer shear near 50 knots and 35 to 40 knot low-level jet, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out early in the day. Otherwise, expect widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of and just behind the front. The rain will end from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Much colder air will rush into the area Tuesday night, with temperatures remaining well below normal through Thursday, before moderation kicks in at the end of the week. Widespread freezes are likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with hard freezes possible as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Northwesterly winds around 10KT this afternoon will become light and northeasterly into the overnight hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas will diminish through Saturday before increasing again Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The onshore winds Sunday and Sunday night will become offshore Monday afternoon with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing behind the front. The strong offshore winds will continue through Tuesday before diminishing Tuesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
A gradual moistening trend will preclude any hazardous fire weather conditions over the next several days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry conditions will persist through early Sunday before rain moves into the area late Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with this frontal passage. This may cause some minor rises on area rivers and streams. However, with base flows at low levels, no flooding is expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 36 63 44 70 57 / 0 0 10 10 50 Panama City 39 61 47 69 62 / 0 0 10 20 70 Dothan 29 58 40 67 55 / 0 0 10 20 90 Albany 30 60 39 69 54 / 0 0 10 20 70 Valdosta 35 61 45 69 55 / 0 0 10 10 50 Cross City 41 66 49 75 57 / 0 0 10 10 40 Apalachicola 43 61 49 69 63 / 0 0 10 10 50
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-Washington. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Gulf. GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill- Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-Turner- Worth. AL...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.