Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 280211
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
911 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2013
.NEAR TERM [Overnight]...
Cold and sprawling area of high pressure is covering the
southeastern states this evening. The center of the high currently
stretches from western Tennessee into east Texas and is forecast
to shift eastward overnight. Temperatures have already fallen into
the mid and upper 30s for much of the forecast area, and
temperatures will continue to fall through the night. So far, the
temperatures are falling a bit faster than forecast, with a few
stations showing calm winds. Expect the winds to be sporadic
overnight, given the gradient in place across the area, so this
should keep temps from reaching the lower 20s. Otherwise, the
clear skies and very dry atmosphere (PWAT 0.18 inches) will allow
for temperatures to reach the mid to upper 20s for most locations
away from the coast. Have dropped min temperatures a degree or two
with the evening update, but still not anticipating a widespread
Hard Freeze. Will keep the previous Freeze Warning unchanged.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Saturday]...
The main weather story for this period will continue to be ample
sunshine but unseasonably cold air in the wake of yesterday`s
robust cold front. The period begins with large scale tight quasi-
zonal flow across the SE region with little change through Sat. At
surface, surface high across extreme Nrn AL with elongated ridge
stretched Swwd to Ern TX and Newd to Cntrl Appalachians. During
the rest of period, high lifts Newd to Carolina Coast Thurs night
with winds veering to ELY allowing local flow to decrease. By Sat
sundown, high off Nrn New England with axis ridging Swwd into SE
region. Thus expect temperatures to moderate each day.
No POPs forecast. Normal highs and lows at Tallahassee Airport for
this week are 70/45. Turkey day will remain quite cold with highs in
the low to mid 50s rising on Fri to around 60 north to mid 60s south
then rising further on Sat to low 60s north to around 70 south.
Local confidence tool has 100% chance of light freeze late Thurs
night to around Sunrise Fri for AL/GA counties and 60-90% for inland
FL counties. So will go from upper 20s north to mid 30s south with
wind chills from mid 20s to low 30s) and issue Freeze watch for
Thurs night into early Fri for all but FL Coastal and SE Big Bend
counties. Lows should moderate Fri night, from mid 30s north to
low-mid 40s south.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The upper pattern will remain zonal while at surface, ridge
dominates region with temps returning thru normal thru Sun night.
A shortwave developing over Srn plains Sat night moves east and
weakens and crosses SE region Sun night into Mon before exiting
Ern seaboard late Mon night. At surface, a wave of low pressure
moves across Nrn most Gulf Sun into Mon brushing local area. At
this time, the impact of these systems would appear to be low with
relatively light rainfall amounts and no thunder forecast. In
their wake, deep layer ridging builds over SE region into Wed.
Will go with 30 pops Sun night, 40% on Mon and 20% Mon night...
otherwise no Pops. Lows from low 40s N to around 50 S Sat night
rising to mid 40s to low 50s Sun and Mon nights, low to mid 40S Tues
night and 45 to 50 Wed night. Highs at or above normal ranging from
low-mid 60s N to low-mid 70s S on Sun, mid 60s to low 70s on Mon,
and upper 60s to low-mid 70s Tues and Wed.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...
Now that the sun has set, winds have begun to die down. Light to
moderate north winds will prevail through the period with clear
Winds and seas are forecast to finally drop to below advisory levels
on Thanksgiving morning. NE winds will remain at or near cautionary
levels especially offshore into Fri night before we finally see a
decided drop off in winds into Mon. Cautionary level winds are
again possible Mon night into Tues night in the wake of a passing
Although much drier is continuing to overspread the region today and
will linger over the Tri-State area for the next several days,
conditions are still not expected to meet the more stringent Red
Rainfall totals between 1.5-3" fell yesterday across the area, and
caused some quick rises to near and around action stage at some of
the area rivers. The rivers and creeks have already peaked and most
levels are currently falling. No river flooding is expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 28 55 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 31 54 37 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 26 52 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 27 53 29 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 28 55 32 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 29 58 35 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 31 55 38 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 10
FL...FREEZE WARNING from 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/
Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
FREEZE WATCH from late Thursday night through Friday morning
for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
Inland Jefferson-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Thursday for Calhoun-
Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
GA...FREEZE WATCH from late Thursday night through Friday morning
for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM EST Thursday for Baker-Ben Hill-
AL...FREEZE WATCH from late Thursday night through Friday morning
FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CST Thursday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay
or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River
Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.