Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 280942 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
442 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2013
...FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
Dropped SCA for offshore marine zones.
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Several locations in the local Tri-state region have already
dropped to the freezing mark or below and we are well on our way
to our first widespread light freeze for this fall season. The
coldest temperature as of 2 am was 29 degrees at Dothan. The
surface high pressure responsible for our cold weather will
continue to settle over the entire southeast CONUS. Aside from
possibly a few cirrus clouds streaming in from the west late this
afternoon in the nearly zonal flow aloft, skies will be clear.
Despite the abundant insolation, temps will remain quite cold with
highs only in the lower to mid 50s.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Surface high pressure will lift northward tonight. However, it still
looks like another light freeze is likely, mainly along and north of
I-10. Durations will be marginal along the southern fringe of
counties, but we did upgraded all that were in the watch to a
freeze warning. It still appears that areas that get cold enough
for frost will be too dry to see any form. A moderating trend in
temps will commence on Friday as high pressure moves off to the
northeast and our low level flow gains a more easterly component.
Highs Friday will range from the upper 50s north of a DHN-ABY line
to the upper 60s in Dixie County. Lows Friday night will dip back
into the 30s for all but the coastal counties. However, only
Coffee and Dale Counties are forecast to briefly touch freezing
that night. Saturday will run 3-5 degrees warmer than Friday with
highs ranging from around 60 north of ABY to the lower 70s south
of Perry. Rain chances will be NIL through the period.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The upper pattern will remain zonal while at surface, ridge
dominates region with temps returning thru normal thru Sun night.
A shortwave developing over Srn plains Sat night moves east and
weakens and crosses SE region Sun night into Mon before exiting
Ern seaboard late Mon night. At surface, a wave of low pressure
moves across Nrn most Gulf Sun into Mon brushing local area. At
this time, the impact of these systems would appear to be low with
relatively light rainfall amounts and no thunder forecast. In
their wake, deep layer ridging builds over SE region into Wed.
Will go with 30 pops Sun night, 40% on Mon and 20% Mon night...
otherwise no Pops. Lows from low 40s N to around 50 S Sat night
rising to mid 40s to low 50s Sun and Mon nights, low to mid 40S Tues
night and 45 to 50 Wed night. Highs at or above normal ranging from
low-mid 60s N to low-mid 70s S on Sun, mid 60s to low 70s on Mon,
and upper 60s to low-mid 70s Tues and Wed.
[Through 06Z Friday] VFR with clear skies through the TAF cycle.
Winds will be light from the northeast today.
Winds have been below advisory thresholds for a while now, and seas
recently followed suit. The small craft advisory has been cancelled.
Winds will remain moderate out of the northeast for a couple of days
and could periodically return to cautionary levels through Saturday
morning before we finally see a decided crop off in winds for the
remainder of the holiday weekend.
Although a dry airmass is in place across the region, minimum
relative humidity values will stay above critical levels and red
flag conditions are not expected at least through the weekend.
The heavy rains from earlier in the week did result in rises on many
area rivers, but in no case has a river reached even action stage.
In fact, many of the smaller rivers and streams are already in
recession. No rainfall is forecast over the weekend. While rain
chances do return early next week, flooding is not anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 55 31 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 54 37 62 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 51 29 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 52 28 60 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 54 31 62 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 58 37 67 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 54 37 63 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
FL...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 8 AM
EST /7 AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Jefferson-Inland Walton-Jackson-
GA...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM EST this morning for all zones.
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Friday for
AL...FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CST this morning for all zones.
FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Friday for
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Barry
Rest of Discussion...Wool