Area Forecast Discussion
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886 FXUS62 KTAE 221947 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 347 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2014 ...Heat Wave to Continue Through the Weekend... .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The TAE 12Z sounding showed a PWAT of 1.69", only slightly less than normal for August, but the 850mb temperature was in the 75th percentile- in the normal range, but on the higher end. The 1000-700 mb flow on the sounding was light and variable, which would render a type 1 sea-breeze day. Although the atmosphere is slightly drier than normal, there is plentiful low level moisture, so increased PoPs slightly to a chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms, focused over north Florida, where we normally see the highest coverage on regime 1 sea-breeze days. This is still a below normal chance of precipitation for this time of year. Temperatures will rise to the upper 90s and around 100 this afternoon, which will feel even hotter when humidity is taken into account. We want to caution people to stay hydrated and reduce their exposure to the heat today by staying indoors. Tonight, lows will only dip to the mid 70s. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Deep layer high pressure will remain centered over the Deep South through the weekend. As a shortwave moves off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, the upper ridge will propagate eastward and build a surface ridge down the U.S. east coast. This will force a front into the Tri-State region late Sunday afternoon into Monday. High temperatures on Saturday will likely be just as warm as today, if not warmer. Widespread 100 degree readings should be expected, with heat indices around 108 degrees for most locations. The highest heat index values will likely be concentrated across north Florida, nearer to the Gulf moisture source and away from the drier air aloft that will likely get mixed down across south Georgia and parts of southeast Alabama. A heat advisory will remain in place across the entire region but should be marginal across south Georgia. Isolated to scattered storms can be expected along the Big Bend seabreeze fronts on Saturday afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected on Sunday associated with the passing front, though it will most likely arrive much later in the day. Expect our northeastern GA counties to get in on the showers and thunderstorms by mid- afternoon, possibly not reaching the Tallahassee area until late Sunday evening. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The aforementioned front will finish its passage through our region by Monday evening bringing with it drier air and more seasonable afternoon high temperatures. By mid to late week, scattered seabreeze storms should be expected once again.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm near ECP or TLH, but chances are low. Winds will generally be from the north or west and remain below 10 knots.
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&& .Marine...
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Sub-headline level westerly/northwesterly flow will veer easterly and increase to cautionary levels by Monday morning. Headline conditions should last through mid-week under the influence of nocturnal wind surges.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through the period.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Widely scattered showers and storms can be expected through most of the weekend. On Sunday, a front will pass through the region from northeast to southwest bringing with it a good chance for rain for most locations across the Tri-State region. However, rainfall amounts will be insignificant and all area rivers will remain below action stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 101 77 100 77 / 10 30 20 40 50 Panama City 79 95 80 96 79 / 10 30 10 20 40 Dothan 75 100 76 99 75 / 10 10 10 20 50 Albany 76 101 76 99 75 / 10 10 20 60 40 Valdosta 74 101 75 98 74 / 10 30 20 60 40 Cross City 75 98 77 98 74 / 10 30 20 50 50 Apalachicola 78 95 79 95 80 / 10 30 20 30 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Dixie- Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Lafayette-Madison. Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson- Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson- Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson- Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton- Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton-Washington. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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