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505
FXUS62 KTAE 220131
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
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A little more active afternoon and evening across the area today.
An energetic east coast sea breeze was a big driving force behind
a lot of the convection this afternoon across Southeastern Georgia
and eventually later into South Central Georgia. The Gulf Coast
sea breeze was a little less intense today and as a result most of
the boundary collisions with this front yielded less robust
storms.

Convection will gradually wind down this evening but still enough
instability to support a few more storms until at least midnight.
Debris cloudiness will gradually dissipate overnight with the
potential for patchy fog by sunrise.
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&&

.SHORT TERM [7 AM Wednesday Morning Through Thursday Night]...
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Tricky forecast for the middle part of the week as low amplitude
shortwave trough progresses across the region and shifts a weak
surface cold front into our area. This system will increase clouds
and chance of showers/thunderstorms as it approaches Wednesday
through Thursday with drier air moving in by Friday. Although an
isolated stronger storm can not be ruled out, overall severe risk
with this system appears marginal for our region at this time.
Expect highs to range around 90f inland and mid 80s along the
coast each afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
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Rather pleasant/benign weather will settle over the region through the
holiday weekend and into early next week. This will occur as a
large ridge of high pressure develops aloft, and drier air settles
in at the surface. Overall, afternoon high temperatures will remain
seasonal in the upper 80s and lower 90s away from the coast with
overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...
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After evening convection dissipates, there is potential for IFR
restrictions at most sites before sunrise. Any fog will diminish
shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions expected throughout the
day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the
late afternoon hours but confidence in the placement of storms is
not high enough at this time to include tempo groups in the TAFs.
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&&

.MARINE...
A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected for
Wednesday through Thursday, especially near-shore.
Otherwise, expect offshore flow and dry conditions will settle
over the region by Friday and continue into the weekend with low
seas and relatively light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No Red Flag concerns are expected for the next several days, with
Afternoon Relative Humidities remaining safely above critical
levels. Dispersion values may exceed 75 by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No flooding issues are expected along or near area rivers. Minor
localized flooding could occur near any slow moving storm which forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   65  89  66  89  66 / 30  30  20  30  10
Panama City   69  86  70  86  70 / 20  10  10  20  10
Dothan        65  91  68  91  66 / 10  20  30  30  10
Albany        66  91  69  90  65 / 40  30  30  30  10
Valdosta      64  88  65  90  65 / 40  40  30  30  10
Cross City    64  87  65  88  65 / 30  30  20  30  10
Apalachicola  69  83  67  85  67 / 20  10  10  20  10
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&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Evans
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Evans