Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
571 FXUS62 KTAE 060238 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 938 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
The 01 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front across the eastern portion of the forecast area, from just west of Cross City extending up into the South Carolina low country. Much cooler and drier air was moving in behind this front with a temperature range in the upper 30s across our Southeast Alabama counties to the upper 60s in the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Expect this front to continue moving east with cooler air overspreading the area. Fortunately, radar imagery over the last couple of hours has showed what post-frontal precipitation was lingering across Southwestern Alabama has largely dissipated as drier air moves further south. The freezing line is still well to the north of the area, and it doesn`t look like much if any of our SE Alabama counties would have a shot at reaching freezing before sunrise on Friday. Temperatures overnight should range from the mid 30s in our western zones to the mid 50s in the southeastern areas.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Saturday]...Ceilings between 1kft and 1.5kft will prevail through the overnight hours with these MVFR conditions continuing well into Friday afternoon. Some break in the cloud cover should occur after 18z with the cloud deck potentially scattering out late in the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [439 PM EST]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... High pressure will be in place this forecast period. Northerly flow means cool, dry air will be invading the region. Skies will clear out on Friday from west to east and will remain mostly clear for the remainder of the forecast period. Highs on Friday will be well below average in the lower 50s for northern portions and mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s. Lows Friday night will be in the 30s. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... Gulf moisture will move into the region on Sunday as a developing Gulf Low moves closer. Clouds will move in Sunday afternoon/evening and will remain in place for the rest of the forecast period. The best chance for rain will be from Sunday night through Tuesday particularly in the northwest portion of the CWA as a Gulf Low lingers in the western Gulf and a warm or stationary boundary will likely be near the Florida Gulf Coast. Beyond Tuesday this boundary will weaken and rain chances will decrease. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s. Lows will generally be in the 50s. .Marine... A cold front is moving across the area. As a result winds are increasing and becoming northerly from the west to the east. Advisory conditions are expected until mid morning tomorrow with cautionary conditions lasting through Saturday morning. Light to moderate winds are expected for the rest of the forecast. .Fire Weather... A cold front will move through the region this evening bringing cooler conditions back to the area. After light rain this evening and cloudy conditions on Friday, drier weather will return by the weekend. Relative humidity values may approach critical levels on Saturday, but other necessary red flag criteria are not expected to be met. .Hydrology... All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are still in action or bank full stage. Rainfall totals with the cold front are less than
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 48 57 38 68 41 / 20 10 0 0 0 Panama City 44 54 40 63 47 / 10 10 0 0 0 Dothan 36 53 34 65 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 Albany 40 53 32 65 38 / 10 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 48 54 36 65 40 / 20 20 0 0 0 Cross City 58 60 41 69 45 / 30 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 49 57 43 65 48 / 20 10 0 0 0
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...GOULD/MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.