Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
891 FXUS62 KTAE 241617 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1217 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Analysis shows an upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes to northern Alabama this morning. This will likely help with afternoon/evening convection. With southerly flow dominant, there is ample moisture and instability with afternoon heating. Thus there is a higher chance for showers and thunderstorms today compared to the past few days. Convection currently over the panhandle region will likely spread throughout most of the CWA into the afternoon hours. Max temps may be slightly hampered in areas with more rain and cloud cover particularly the panhandle region. Although highs will still be in the low 90s inland. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... While initially, a typical summertime pattern will be in place across the Southern United States at the start of the period, expect the pattern to rapidly amplify by Monday as a large trough digs southward out of Canada. Some of the guidance suggests this trough will be strong enough to help push a cold front into and possibly past the forecast area on Tuesday delivering another brief but noticeable cool and dry period to the region through Wednesday. The upper pattern thereafter looks to stagnate with strong ridging building over the Rockies and across the Western North Atlantic keeping the deep trough in place from the Ohio Valley to the Northeastern Gulf. This will yield slightly cooler and less humid conditions by the end of the period with only modest rain chances.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [632 AM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in maintaining the base of a weak 500 mb trough over GA through Saturday, while a surface cold front stalls well to our north. The mean 1000-700 mb wind across our regions will be out of the southwest, which is often associated with above-climatology PoPs for portions of our forecast area (especially in FL). Curiously, there is considerable difference in the forecast PoP among the GFS, NAM, & ECMWF MOS each day, but it`s not that obvious (looking at the synoptic scale) why this is. We averaged the various PoPs together, as well as our local sea breeze climatology, and our PoP forecast changes very little between Friday and Saturday. Scattered evening thunderstorms (mainly in GA and AL) will dissipate before midnight tonight, but isolated showers/storms will begin to develop near the FL coast by dawn on Friday. PoPs both Friday and Saturday are around 40%, which is near climatology. Highs will be in the mid 90s and lows in the 70s. The prospects for organized severe thunderstorms continues to be low due primarily to weak winds aloft. However, the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all forecast some drying and steepening of the mid tropospheric lapse rates Saturday afternoon. SBCAPE values will likely exceed 2500 J/kg on Saturday, and delta theta-e values are forecast to reach or exceed 30 K. Together, these factors suggest a greater potential for strong/severe wet microbursts, albeit disorganized and "pulsey" in nature, and we will continue to monitor this threat. .Aviation... [Through 12z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the day with winds from the southwest around 8-10 kts in the afternoon. The typical summertime scattered diurnal convection will develop during the late morning and afternoon hours with VCTS shown at the terminals. The earliest start is expected at ECP with later start times farther to the north and east. .Marine... An east-west oriented surface ridge will remain across South FL and the southeast Gulf of Mexico through this weekend. Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating. Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although dispersion values will be high this afternoon across a large portion of the area away from the immediate coast. .Hydrology... Any heavy rain that occurs is likely to be too localized to significantly impact local rivers. The probability of Flash Flooding is very low.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 91 73 93 73 94 / 50 10 40 20 40 Panama City 87 77 89 77 89 / 50 10 40 20 40 Dothan 91 73 92 74 94 / 50 30 40 20 40 Albany 93 73 93 74 94 / 40 40 30 20 30 Valdosta 96 72 96 71 96 / 40 20 40 20 40 Cross City 92 74 91 71 92 / 30 30 40 20 40 Apalachicola 89 77 89 77 89 / 40 10 40 20 40
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.