Area Forecast Discussion
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758 FXUS62 KTAE 100843 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 443 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014 .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Friday]...VFR conditions expected at all terminals. Weak seabreeze should generate few-sct cu especially near the coast. Light northerly winds early will become southerly 5 to 10 MPH by late morning...then calm after sunset.
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&& .Prev Discussion [409 AM EDT]...
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.Near Term [Through Today]... Expect a large scale pattern change in the wake of upper trough now well NE of CWA deamplifying and exiting into Atlc thru the day. This allows a transition to near zonal flow across the Srn stream. At surface...day begins with high just to our west before it slides overhead this morning then Ewd into Atlc by sunset. Assocd ridge W-E along vcnty of I-10. Per RAP13 soundings...this yields low level flow shifting from offshore to onshore thru the day with dry WNW flow and strong subsidence above H8. Expect good mixing down of mid/upper level air with inland dew points dropping into the upper 30s. PWATs will hover around 0.4 inches. All this translates to sunny skies...light winds and inland high temps in the upper 70s. With surface ridge across CWA expect a noticeably weakening gradient so a weak seabreeze should develop later today keeping coastal sites closer to 70 degrees. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Dry weather is expected through the short term. At the surface, high pressure will gradually slide eastward through Saturday with temperatures exhibiting a gradual warming trend, although generally remaining within a few degrees of average for this time of year. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The beginning of the period starts with zonal flow aloft, transitioning into a ridging pattern early Sunday keeping conditions benign. The next chance for rain will take place Monday afternoon as the next upper trough approaches, with PoPs remaining in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday morning. Although the GFS and Euro handle the upper level patterns around this time differently, they generally agree on the timing of rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain average for the time of year until Tuesday when highs will drop about 10 degrees across the area into the lower 70s. .Marine... With high pressure forecast to remain in place through Saturday, winds and seas will remain low. An increase in southeasterly flow is possible on Sunday with winds up to 15 knots as high pressure slides east of the area. .Fire Weather... A noticeably drier airmass will be in place today as mixing down of mid/upper level air will cause dew points to plummet. Inland afternoon relative humidities will drop into the mid 20s. While the duration criteria will be met in Florida, critical ERC values and 20 foot wind values will not be realized. Similarly, in GA/AL wind and humidity criteria, respectively, will not be met. The airmass will slowly moisten on Friday and throughout the weekend, thus red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .Hydrology... Several basins continue to experience flooding or are forecast to receive flooding at various points, including the Pea River, Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Kinchafoonee Creek, and Spring Creek. Other basins such as the Flint River, Ochlockonee River, Aucilla River, and Withlacoochee River are in action stage but are not currently forecast to reach flood stage, although Thomasville and Concord on the Ochlockonee are forecast to crest within a couple tenths of a foot of flood stage. The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be found on the AHPS page at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 78 47 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 74 55 76 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 78 49 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 79 48 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 48 82 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 79 47 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 53 76 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...CAMP/HELLER AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK HYDROLOGY...DVD

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