Area Forecast Discussion
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439 FXUS62 KTAE 141520 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Just made a few minor tweaks to the current fcst which is essentially well on track. Both local and close proximity soundings as well as the GOES Blended TPW (Total Precipitable Water) product, show a tremendous gradient in the PWAT fields from NW to SE across our CWA. As for the actual 12 UTC soundings, TAE`s came in with 1.78" which is down from 2.28" from 12 UTC Wed., while FFC is down to am extremely low 0.50", down from a still below climo value of 1.19". Across just our CWA, using the TPW product exclusively, as of 1250 UTC this morning, our lowest value was in Quitman county GA (far NW) with 0.88" which is 54% of climo for this time of year, while our highest values of 2.00" to 2.04" are showing up across much of the SE FL Big Bend. So, our PoP gradient of 10% to the NW to 70% is quite obvious. The only changes of note to this package were to raise afternoon PoPs over the Marine area, and High temps around Valdosta given the expected later start to the convection.
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&& .Prev Discussion [233 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... The GFS and ECMWF forecast our region to remain north of a deep layer ridge. A weakening, quasi-stationary front will remain oriented east-northeast to west-southwest across our forecast area, keeping the FL coast and north FL in the warm sector. Any cooler air associated with this front will remain far north of our region, but some slightly drier dewpoints (mid 60s) are expected in south GA & AL. Although isolated, mainly afternoon & evening showers & thunderstorms will develop near the front each day, dry, subsiding air aloft will limit most of the deep moist convection to the region south and east of Tallahassee. In fact, rain is possible at almost any time of day (or night) around Cross City and Perry (as well as over the northeast Gulf of Mexico) with persistent, moist, onshore flow through Saturday. The PoP will range from 10% at Dothan and Albany, to 40% at Cross City Friday and Saturday. With drying and subsidence aloft, high temperatures will climb into the mid 90s each day (except around 90 at the coast). The chances for organized severe storms is low due to weak winds aloft. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... Deeper moisture should return on Sunday and into early next week as southwest flow develops once again in the low-mid levels. From Sunday to Wednesday, the forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms, highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. .Aviation... [Through 06Z Friday] MVFR fog will be possible primarily at VLD this morning. DHN, ABY, and most likely ECP will remain storm-free and VFR today. There is a non-zero chance mid-afternoon for a quick hitting storm at ECP so have included VCTS there. At TLH and DHN expect MVFR to IFR conditions in thunderstorms later this afternoon. All sites will return to prevailing VFR around sunset. .Marine... An east-west oriented high pressure ridge will remain situated across South FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico into early next week. This will help to maintain west to southwest winds around 10 kt across the coastal waters, with 1 to 2 ft seas. Some increase in onshore winds and chop is possible each afternoon & evening with the heating of the land. .Fire Weather... The Tri-State region will be bisected northeast to southwest over the next few days by a front dividing dry air to the north and more saturated conditions to the south. However, even in the driest locations relative humidity levels should remain above critical levels precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions. .Hydrology... Despite locally heavy rain the past few days, local Flash Flood Guidance remains rather high- generally 3.5 to 5 inches (3 hr) across north FL. The late-night run of our Ensemble Convection Allowing Models (ECAM) indicates a less than 15% chance of exceeding Flash Flood Guidance through Friday. However, with still plenty of boundary layer moisture, rainfall rates could be locally heavy and cause some flooding of in urban areas, low-lying spots, or in small basins and streams. Area rivers were well below flood stage, and this is likely to continue at least through this weekend.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 92 72 94 72 94 / 50 30 30 20 30 Panama City 88 76 90 76 90 / 30 10 20 10 20 Dothan 92 69 94 71 94 / 10 0 10 10 10 Albany 94 68 95 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 94 71 92 70 93 / 60 30 30 20 30 Cross City 88 73 91 72 90 / 70 40 40 30 40 Apalachicola 88 77 89 77 89 / 40 20 30 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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