Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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158
FXUS62 KTAE 130106
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
906 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS
SET UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATES THAT 4 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR IN WASHINGTON AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
HIGH REFLECTIVITIES WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ARE TYPICAL OF
HIGH RAINFALL RATES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOODING
CONCERNS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]... CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AND MVFR
OVERNIGHT. IFR IS EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG STARTING AT
08Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT DHN OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AT DHN, ABY AND ECP TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [401 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET AFFECTS THE REGION. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND PWAT VALUES CONTINUING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WIND FIELDS REMAINING
UNIMPRESSIVE. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...AND SOME OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE RESPONDS WITH ISOLATED VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION AND EXACT TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SUBTLE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET...WHICH CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY
AND 40-50 PERCENT AT NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...
THE UNSETTLED EL NINO-ISH PATTERN MAY CONTINUE ALL THE WAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ON THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE...THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
VERY WELL DEFINED ALL THE WAY WEST OF HAWAII AND WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR AVERAGE
DAYTIME HIGHS.


.MARINE...
IN GENERAL...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE AREAS MAY
NOT SEE A WETTING RAIN EACH DAY...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A WETTING
RAIN SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 60 IN THE AFTERNOONS.


.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK...HIGHEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH CONVECTION...LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY FORCE SOME RIVERS INTO
ACTION OR EVEN MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  80  68  83  69 /  60  60  40  50  30
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  79  69 /  60  60  40  50  30
DOTHAN        67  79  66  82  66 /  70  70  50  60  30
ALBANY        66  79  67  84  66 /  60  70  50  60  30
VALDOSTA      67  82  67  84  67 /  50  70  40  60  30
CROSS CITY    69  82  68  83  68 /  30  60  40  40  30
APALACHICOLA  72  79  72  81  70 /  50  60  40  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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