Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
953 FXUS62 KTAE 230123 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 923 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are slowly winding down this evening, with the remaining activity situated primarily in southwestern Georgia. This activity should contine to wane through late evening, with a mostly quiet night expected thereafter. Have made only a few minor changes to the grids this evening to account for ongoing convection.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through around 11Z when MVFR fog development is anticipated at our Nrn terminals- DHN, ABY, and VLD. Fog should clear by around 13Z and VFR conditions will prevail once again with light winds from the southwest.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [232 PM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The period commences aloft with Wrn Atlc ridge building Wwd into the local area. In response, mid-upper level low over Ern LA Wed will continue to retrograde WWD along the Gulf coast and eventually get sheared out near coastal Louisiana or Ern TX by Thursday. This will allow another trough to begin to dig into the region from the NW which could provide some additional large scale forcing for storms. At surface, Wwd progression of upper ridge allows surface reflection to also build Wwd across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. All this increases local flow and shifts it to more WLY (Wed) then WSW (Thurs) sfc-mid levels with PWATs dropping to around 1.5-1.7 inches or closer to seasonal norms. With drier air moving especially on Wed, POPs will be below climo but enough moisture and instability exists with diurnal Gulf seabreeze for 20-30% W-E Wed and 30-40% Thurs. Weak steering flow would favor heavy rain with any boundary clashes. Temperatures should be warmer than in recent days, with highs in the mid 90s likely, a little higher on Wed. Lows in the low-mid 70s. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The region will be dominated by high pressure at the sfc and an upper level ridge through Sunday. As a result, expect only a slight chance for afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Late Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip chances for the remainder of the forecast period. A stationary boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s. .Marine... Winds and seas should be relatively calm during the period, winds generally 10 knots or less and seas generally 2 feet or less. .Fire Weather... High dispersion values are forecast across the Florida zones Wednesday afternoon and the entire tri-stare region on Thursday. Aside from the high dispersion, there are no fire weather concerns for the remainder of the week. .Hydrology... The Shoal River at Mossy Head briefly approached flood stage early yesterday morning, but the river levels are now falling. There will likely be some heavy rain rates today, and the storm motion will be unusually slow (around 5 kt). This would suggest at least some potential for flooding. However, there appears to be one negative factor that will keep the risk of flooding rather low- the influx of dry air aloft from the south and west. This should help dampen deep moist convection somewhat, preventing updrafts from persisting over any one location for too long. We think the probability of exceeding local flash flood guidance today is about 5% (within 25mi of a point), which is not high enough for a watch.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 71 95 74 94 73 / 10 30 20 30 20 Panama City 75 90 76 89 77 / 10 20 20 30 20 Dothan 72 93 73 93 73 / 20 20 20 40 20 Albany 72 94 73 94 73 / 20 30 20 40 20 Valdosta 70 96 72 94 73 / 30 30 30 40 20 Cross City 70 94 73 93 73 / 10 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 74 88 76 88 77 / 10 20 20 30 20
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.