Area Forecast Discussion
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201 FXUS62 KTAE 171845 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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As a result of the dry air that has spread in behind the cold front, expect low temperatures to fall into the upper 60s away from the coast tonight. To put this into perspective, it is around 3-5 degrees below average. The impacts from this front are clearly realized more in moisture levels than air temperature. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... During this period, we will see a gradual return to more typical summer rain chances and modest increases in humidity. However, Friday will still be a dry day for most of us. The front currently stalled across the northern Gulf of Mexico will edge northward allowing some return flow across the central Gulf Coast. Isolate PoPs are included across our far northwestern zones. We also could see some isolated convection make it into our South Central GA zones in an area where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes collide. The reduced convective coverage will allow temps to rise to above normal levels, mainly mid 90s. By Saturday, return flow will be well underway and PW will be back to climatological norms, if not above. PoPs will increase to 30 southeast to 60s northwest. Max temps will be near normal. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... The long term period will be fairly active for our CWA as long wave troughing continues its grip on the Eastern CONUS with ridging in the West. This typically features rain chances that are above climatology for our CWA so went with blend of higher HPC guidance with GFS/Euro which yields rain chances near 70 percent each day in the period. With higher chances for rain, temperatures are expected to be below climatology as well with most locations likely reaching AOB 90.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF.
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&& .Marine...
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A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas for the next several days.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Another relatively dry day is expected tomorrow, though RH values will likely remain above critical levels. Thereafter, moisture levels will increase to seasonal norms or above, as will rain chances.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Scattered storms will return to the forecast by the weekend, but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time. While some storms may result in some localized rises on smaller area creeks and streams, the main stem river will continue to remain below flood stages.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 68 95 71 92 71 / 0 10 10 40 30 Panama City 76 90 75 88 74 / 0 10 10 40 30 Dothan 66 92 70 90 71 / 0 10 20 50 30 Albany 67 94 71 91 71 / 0 20 20 50 30 Valdosta 69 96 70 94 70 / 0 20 20 40 30 Cross City 71 93 70 92 71 / 0 10 10 30 20 Apalachicola 74 89 73 88 73 / 0 10 10 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL/DOBBS AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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