Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261910

310 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a decaying,
quasi-stationary front across central FL and off the Southeast
coast, and increasingly higher pressure (from south to north) across
the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed precipitable
water values (which have been below climatology the past few days)
gradually increasing from southeast to northwest. Local radars were
showing some rain along the northeast FL coast, and we expect
isolated to scattered showers & thunderstorms to develop across
north FL later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, after
occasional breaks in the clouds this afternoon, low clouds will
return to the entire forecast area overnight. The non-zero wind
speeds and clouds will prevent temperatures from cooling too much,
with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. After this evening,
rain chances will be confined mainly to the coastal waters.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep moisture will be in place throughout the period with forecast
PW`s in the 2.0" to 2.3" range. As the upper trough approaches, a
weak surface low is likely to develop just south of New Orleans
on Sunday. This feature will slide eastward over or near our
Florida zones by Sunday evening further enhancing showers and
thunderstorms across our local region. Some heavy rainfall amounts
could occur, especially Sunday and Sunday night over the Florida
panhandle. QPF amounts are currently in the 1-3 inch range through
the next 48 hours for these ares with the potential of isolated
amounts up to 6 inches. There is still a lot of uncertainty with
amounts and location and will be monitored closely on the next few
model runs. PoPs will be in the likely to categorical range. Max
temps will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows around 70.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The surface low is forecast to continue to track eastward across
our Florida zones Monday with a continuing threat for some heavy
rainfall, especially along the Gulf coast. As the surface low and
upper trough shift to our east Monday night into Tuesday we will
see a gradual decrease in deep layer moisture along with
significantly lower rain chances through the remainder of the
week. Expect temperatures to run near or just above normal.



[Through 18z Saturday] Mainly VFR cigs (3200-4000 ft AGL) are
expected through this evening. Isolated TSRA are possible across
north FL. There is excellent agreement among MOS and the dynamical
models in low cigs developing overnight, though how low is still in
question. We used a blend of persistence, MOS, high-res NWP, and
SREF for the timing & cig height, and we expect low-end MVFR cigs to
develop at all terminals between 3z and 9z, with occasional IFR (or
lower) cigs. Cigs will slowly lift through MVFR levels late Saturday
morning and afternoon. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop mainly after
18z Saturday.



Northeasterly flow will continue through tonight before shifting
to easterly on Saturday and southeasterly Saturday night into
Sunday. Conditions will likely reach exercise caution levels
beginning tonight and continuing at least through Saturday for all
but Apalachee Bay. Light to occasionally moderate winds can be
expected as they swing around from the east to west Saturday
night into early next week.


.Fire Weather...

As we transition to a very wet pattern, there will be no fire
weather concerns through at least early next week.



General rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across the
forecast area through Monday, except 2 to 3 inches with locally
higher amounts along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not
expected to result in any river flooding due to low flows from the
recent dry summer. However, isolated instances of flash flooding
cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday, mainly along the panhandle
coast. It is too soon to consider any watches, but this trend will
have to be monitored.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  86  72  86  71 /  10  50  50  70  60
Panama City   71  84  74  85  74 /  10  60  70  80  60
Dothan        65  85  70  84  69 /  10  40  60  80  60
Albany        66  85  70  85  69 /  10  40  40  70  60
Valdosta      68  86  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  60  50
Cross City    71  86  71  87  70 /  30  60  40  60  50
Apalachicola  72  84  75  84  75 /  20  60  70  80  60


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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