Area Forecast Discussion
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035 FXUS62 KTAE 151407 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1007 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Dry air continues to advect into the area, as indicated by the 12Z Tallahassee sounding, particularly in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Precipitable water - a measure of the total amount of water vapor in the troposphere - on the sounding has fallen to 1.53", which is about 80% of normal and below the 25th percentile historically for August. In general during the summer months, it is difficult to develop and sustain robust convection when PWATs fall that low in the historical distribution. Therefore, we continue to expect convective development this afternoon to be suppressed over most of the area. However, the GOES blended total PWAT product does indicate higher values - in excess of 1.8" - to the southeast of the Aucilla River (the eastern Big Bend region). 30-50% PoPs have been outlined in this area of deeper moisture that is also in relatively close proximity to a stalled surface front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-20% PoP) have been included as far northwest as a Tyndall AFB - Thomasville - Alapaha line (roughly PAM-TVI-DQH). Highs in the low-mid 90s look likely again today with the limited cloud cover and rain. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Nearly zonal flow will gradually be replaced by building upper level ridging across the SE U.S. through the entire extended period, while a weak Sfc high pressure system generally remains in place across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This type of synoptic pattern with potential stacked ridging should result in a prolonged period of hot and humid conditions across the entire CWA, with below normal PoPs forced only by the diurnal sea breeze circulation. High temps should at least be in the mid 90s away from the coast, with some upper 90s certainly possible by mid to late week. Overnight lows will mainly be in the very muggy mid to upper 70s.
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&& .Prev Discussion [204 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in building an east-west oriented deep layer ridge across the FL Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. What`s left of the quasi-stationary front (currently across our forecast area) will drift very slowly to the north and gradually dissipate. Both global models forecast dry, sinking air aloft on Saturday- especially along and north of a line from Panama City to Valdosta (where our forecast PoP is 20% or less in the afternoon & evening hours). It won`t be quite as dry across north FL, and the boundary layer will still be very moist, so scattered storms are expected (30% PoP). Deep layer moisture will begin to gradually increase from southwest to northeast on Sunday, though there will still be some residual warm/dry air aloft. The forecast PoP is 20-30%, though with the weakening front we don`t expect to see as sharp a difference in the moisture/PoP distribution. Highs temperatures will be in the mid 90s inland (around 90 at the coast), and lows will be in the 70s. .Aviation... [Through 06Z Saturday] MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected once again this morning at TLH and VLD. Shortly after sunrise, VFR will return to all terminals. There is a relatively low chance of a thunderstorm impacting TLH and VLD this afternoon, with essentially no chance of rain at ECP, DHN, and ABY. .Marine... Winds will generally be west to southwest around 10 KT into early next week, as a high pressure ridge builds across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will be 2 ft or less. .Fire Weather... The Tri-State region will be bisected northeast to southwest for a couple more days by a front dividing dry air to the north and more saturated conditions to the south. However, even in the driest locations relative humidity levels should remain above critical levels precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions. .Hydrology... Through Saturday we expect the heaviest rain around Cross City and Mayo, where 0.50 to 1 inch is likely. Locally heavy rain is possible, which could cause brief, localized flooding of low-lying urban areas. Elsewhere the showers & storms will be too isolated to make a significant dent in our summer dry spell, and area rivers remain well below flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 73 93 73 95 / 20 10 10 10 30 Panama City 90 76 90 77 90 / 20 10 10 10 30 Dothan 93 70 94 73 94 / 10 0 10 10 20 Albany 94 70 96 72 94 / 10 0 10 10 20 Valdosta 95 71 95 71 95 / 30 20 20 20 20 Cross City 89 73 91 72 93 / 40 30 30 20 20 Apalachicola 88 77 90 77 90 / 30 20 20 10 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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