Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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811 FXUS62 KTAE 231929 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 329 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. .SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]... THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN BACK SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TRAPPED UNDER THE SHALLOW INVERSION TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS, ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY, THE WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK AS THE HIGH RETREATS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING INSOLATION ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOST INLAND AREAS. THE WARMER TEMPS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KECP WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN IFR CONDITIONS, IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, AND RETURN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO AND AROUND SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO MVFR DURING THE DAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN ELEVATE TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE FROM ABOUT I-10 NORTHWARD...EXCEPT IN THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM DESTIN TO JUST WEST OF BLOUNTSTOWN. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. TODAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...WITH MOST OF THIS RAIN IN THE REGION THAT DID NOT GET MUCH RAIN SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON THE LOCAL RIVERS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 55 77 56 83 58 / 10 0 0 20 10 PANAMA CITY 57 73 60 76 61 / 10 0 10 10 10 DOTHAN 51 75 55 79 56 / 10 0 0 20 10 ALBANY 50 70 55 80 56 / 10 0 0 20 20 VALDOSTA 52 76 56 83 58 / 10 0 0 20 20 CROSS CITY 56 79 57 85 60 / 10 0 0 20 20 APALACHICOLA 59 74 62 75 62 / 10 0 10 10 20
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN/MERRIFIELD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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