Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 141411
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EDT Tue May 14 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Strong surface high pressure across the region will sustain
another day of dry and very pleasant weather. Temperatures have
already rebounded over 20 degrees from record or near record lows
early this morning, and should top out in the lower to mid 80s
this afternoon. This type of diurnal temperature swing /near 40 degrees/
is due to the very dry air in place. Temperatures will once again
drop noticeably after sunset but are not expected to dip quite as
low with minimums bottoming out in the lower 50s inland and around
60 on the coast /which is still around 10-15 degrees below normal/.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...
An upper ridge will build over the region tonight through
Wednesday, keeping the weather dry. After one more cool night,
temperatures will return to near normal levels for Wednesday into
By early Thursday, a weak upper trough is forecast to cross the
Mississippi River and move across the deep south. This may help
kick off some isolated convection on Thursday, primarily over
northern portions of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Upper level flow will remain progressive with a short wave trough
moving east across the Gulf Coast states Thursday and Thursday
night. A period of ridging will follow. However, the axis never
quite makes it this far east and keeps the area in northwest flow.
The next long wave trough then builds into the Southeast on
Monday. At the surface, the ridge axis will remain in place just
south of the coast through the entire period. That will protect
the forecast area from any widespread precipitation. However, we
will actually being seeing temps and dew points typical for mid to
late May. This will provide enough moisture and instability to
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop on the sea breeze
and other boundaries, possibly aided by impulses coming into the
area in the northwesterly flow aloft. PoPs will generally be in
the 10-20 percent range on Thursday, rising to 20-30 percent from
Friday through the weekend. With the sea breeze being a primary
catalyst, areas along the immediate coast may stay dry through the
.AVIATION [Beginning 14Z Tuesday]...
[Through 12z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected through the
period with prevailing winds of 10 knots or less.
High pressure will remain over the waters for the next several
days, keeping winds and seas minimal through the weekend.
Long durations of low relative humidity will couple with high ERC
values in a few northwest Florida counties this afternoon to
provide red flag conditions. On Wednesday, durations of critically
low RH do not appear to be likely and the airmass will gradually
moisten through the remainder of the week. Thus, red flag
conditions are not anticipated after today.
With little rain expected through the next seven days, no
hydrologic problems are anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 82 51 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 81 61 82 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 84 57 88 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 82 56 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
Valdosta 80 52 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 83 52 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 78 58 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 10
FL...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-