Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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659 FXUS62 KTAE 251054 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 654 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] OUTSIDE OF VLD...THE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS DID NOT DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL VFR CIGS MOVED IN. AT VLD...MVFR CIGS DID DEVELOP AND MAY HOLD IN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT NO WORSE THAN MVFR LEVEL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [400 AM EDT]...
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.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]... AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF, ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MIDDLE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS TONIGHT...AND BECOME VERY DEEP AND RATHER BROAD ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST SUFFICIENT...IF NOT SPECTACULAR...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COULD PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE FORECAST 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KT...WHICH IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIMITED (BUT NOT ZERO). SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME RATHER SPLIT AND MORE ZONAL IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE GFS INDICATES A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. .MARINE... FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. .FIRE WEATHER... SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IF THIS AIR MASS IS INDEED DRY ENOUGH, AND OTHER CRITICAL PARAMETERS ARE MET, RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. .HYDROLOGY... NEARLY ALL OF THE LOCAL RIVERS WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR RISES ON THE RIVERS. WE EXPECT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 84 58 79 62 72 / 10 10 40 60 50 PANAMA CITY 75 63 74 60 68 / 10 10 50 60 40 DOTHAN 81 59 77 55 64 / 10 10 40 60 30 ALBANY 80 57 78 58 66 / 10 10 30 60 30 VALDOSTA 80 58 81 63 71 / 20 10 30 60 50 CROSS CITY 81 59 81 66 75 / 10 10 30 60 70 APALACHICOLA 74 63 76 64 71 / 10 10 40 70 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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