Area Forecast Discussion
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288 FXUS62 KTAE 181126 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 726 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014 .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions and light winds should prevail at the terminals through much of the upcoming TAF period, except for the possibility of a brief period of MVFR visibility after 08Z. This is most likely at VLD, but possible at the other terminals as well.
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&& .Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...
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.Near Term [Through Today]... With the Sfc cold front expected to be pushed further to our south today, much drier air will advect in from the northwest. This will allow dew points to mix out into the lower to middle 60s away from the coast this afternoon. Although dry, it will still be quite warm across the region today, with high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s under partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should also be limited to the coastal waters, with PoPs no higher than 20-30%. .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Two distinct features will play an important role in the evolution of the synoptic pattern and subsequently convective coverage through Saturday. The first is an upper level +PV anomaly, or shortwave, currently centered over eastern South Dakota. The second is a ribbon of mid-level +PV created by convection along a stationary boundary draped northwest to southeast through the central Plains. These two features will "merge" as they enter the Southeast, with the mid-level anomaly forcing the upper shortwave to cutoff from the more progressive northern stream flow. On Friday, expect the best deep layer synoptic ascent associated with the shortwave to be just south and east of our southeast Big Bend counties. This will place the main +PV anomaly directly over the Tri-State region by the afternoon. The result of this will be a strengthening surface ridge and associated wedge of cooler air pressing southwest into our region. This relatively weak boundary should be strong enough to initiate some convection along its leading edge. Though, the vertical extent of these storms should be limited with plenty of dry air slipping in aloft. On Saturday, the mid-level anomaly will have amplified the upper- level cutoff low over southeast Georgia. Both of the aforementioned features will have induced low-level cyclogenesis over the western Atlantic, placing the the region under a fairly strong low-level northeasterly flow regime. The northeasterly flow will lift from the warm western Atlantic, over the "cool" wedge that established itself over the Southeast. This will likely spread an area of showers inland, moving from northeast to southwest through the day. It is unlikely that these showers will make it too far west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany. Expect afternoon highs on Friday to range from around 90 degrees along the Florida Panhandle and across southeast Alabama, to the middle 80s across much of Georgia. On Saturday, the middle 80s will be more common area-wide. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday. Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will likely return. .Marine... Relatively light winds today will shift northeast and increase to near cautionary levels Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, the pressure pattern will weaken again, lowering winds well below headline levels. .Fire Weather... The influx of drier air into the region will peak this afternoon, but relative humidities and other critical fire weather parameters will not approach Red Flag levels during the next several days. .Hydrology... With generally light rainfall amounts expected through the weekend, stream flows will be in recession for the next few days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 92 68 89 68 84 / 10 10 40 30 40 Panama City 89 71 88 71 86 / 10 10 30 40 30 Dothan 90 66 88 67 85 / 10 0 40 30 10 Albany 89 67 86 67 84 / 10 10 40 20 40 Valdosta 92 68 86 66 83 / 10 10 40 20 50 Cross City 91 70 86 65 84 / 10 30 50 40 60 Apalachicola 89 71 87 71 83 / 10 10 30 50 40 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...GOULD/WOOL MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/GODSEY

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