Area Forecast Discussion
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720 FXUS62 KTAE 132022 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 422 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014 ...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA... .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A strong frontal system will affect the area over the next 24 hours, bringing with it a threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall. In terms of severe weather, the main threat will come late tonight through early Tuesday afternoon in the form of the squall line that is currently back across the MS/LA area. Straight line winds will be the main threat, but we cannot rule out a small chance of an isolated tornado either with rather high low-level shear values in place. SPC has the entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe storms. The flash flood threat will come from the potential for training convection from south to north out ahead of the main squall line. WPC has roughly the same area as the flash flood watch outlooked for a moderate risk of excessive rainfall. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... There may be some lingering convection into early Tuesday night across the eastern portions of the area just ahead of the front. Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will be moving into the area in the wake of the front. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Dry weather is expected through the period with high pressure in the wake of the strong cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of average for this time of year.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Tuesday] Best chance for TS will be near the coast this afternoon. Overnight TS will move in from the west as a cold front approaches. MVFR conditions are expected overnight and during the morning hours. IFR conditions will likely be brief. A stronger line of TS will likely develop in the morning and move through the area from west to east. Some storms could be severe.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will continue to increase in response to a sharp pressure difference between the approaching low pressure from the west and high pressure over the western Atlantic. Winds and seas should fall below advisory levels Tuesday evening as the pressure pattern becomes weak behind the departing low.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with drying conditions for Wednesday. Red flag conditions are not expected at least through the remainder of the week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts in excess of 6 inches in a short period of time are possible across the flash flood watch area through Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere, around 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected. River levels are starting out fairly low, so even though some decent rises are expected across the western basins, main stem river flooding is not expected at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 82 58 80 50 / 70 100 50 0 0 Panama City 75 81 60 79 57 / 100 100 10 0 0 Dothan 70 80 53 78 51 / 100 100 10 0 0 Albany 72 80 57 78 52 / 60 100 40 10 0 Valdosta 71 82 61 79 51 / 30 100 70 10 10 Cross City 71 84 68 81 52 / 30 80 70 10 10 Apalachicola 76 82 62 79 57 / 90 100 30 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through Tuesday afternoon for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty- South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday afternoon for Clay-Decatur-Early-Miller-Seminole. AL...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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