Area Forecast Discussion
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239 FXUS62 KTAE 161606 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1106 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Just a few very minor updates this morning, as the low cloudiness is gradually burning off across the region. This should lead to a partly cloudy and milder day this afternoon with temps climbing up into the upper 60s well to the north to the lower to middle 70s elsewhere across the Tri-State area.
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&& .Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... For tonight and Monday, not much has changed from the previous thinking. The main question will be the recovery of the low level airmass from its current cool and rather dry state as both low level and deep layer shear looks like they will be sufficient to support severe weather. In terms of instability, guidance agrees that will be a narrow band of surface-based instability near the Gulf coast Monday morning with dewpoints recovering to the mid 60s. The CAM ensemble responds with SBCAPE values near 1000 j/kg along the coast with lesser values farther inland. With 0-1 km shear near 30 knots and 0-6 km shear near 50 knots expected, some severe weather is possible, including the potential for an isolated tornado or two. SPC has outlooked most of the area for a slight risk of severe storms for Monday. As the front moves through the area during the day, temperatures will be falling during the afternoon behind it with gusty northwest winds. As an example, the Dothan area is expected to start Monday morning in the lower 60s and end the day in the upper 40s. For Monday night and Tuesday, a much colder airmass will continue to advect into the area behind the front. With strong cold advection occurring, the official forecast used more of a raw model blend instead of MOS, although MOS was not overly different in this case. A light freeze is a distinct possibility across portions of the area Monday night followed by a very cold day on Tuesday relative to average with highs struggling to even reach 50. The northern portions of the forecast area may stay in the mid to upper 40s. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... A very cold and dry airmass will be in place at the start of the period with a widespread freeze likely on Tuesday night and again on Wednesday night. In fact, hard freeze conditions (locally defined as below 26 degrees for at least 2 hours) are looking more likely for Tuesday night across a large part of the area with center of the surface high pressure in a favorable area. These temperatures are around 20 to 25 degrees below average for this time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the end of the week. By next Sunday, the 00z GFS, Euro, and Canadian all have a rather strong system developing west of the area which could bring another round of storms just beyond the day 7 period into early next week. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Monday] MVFR cigs in the early morning hours at eastern terminals (VLD, TLH, and ABY) will improve to VFR by around 15-16Z, MVFR cigs will build again between 00-04Z, this time from the west ahead of our next cold front. By the end of the period, we will begin to see thunderstorms with IFR cigs possible, particularly at the eastern terminals. .Marine... Winds will veer to southeasterly today and then southerly tonight and increase to exercise caution levels overnight. Advisory level conditions are expected on Monday just ahead of a strong cold front as well as behind the front as winds shift to the northwest. Strong offshore flow will continue into Tuesday before diminishing into Wednesday as high pressure builds over the waters. .Fire Weather... A cold front will cross the area tonight through Monday night, with an arctic airmass pushing into the area in its wake. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a much colder, drier airmass will be in place over the tri-state area, but it may be too cold for relative humidity values to dip to red flag criteria for the durations needed. .Hydrology... Sunday night and Monday rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.5 and 1.25 inches, with the highest amounts over SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. With current river levels quite low, these amounts are not expected cause any problems.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 71 61 69 32 49 / 10 30 90 10 0 Panama City 70 66 68 35 49 / 10 60 100 10 0 Dothan 68 61 62 27 45 / 10 70 100 10 0 Albany 69 60 63 28 45 / 10 50 100 10 0 Valdosta 70 60 70 32 48 / 10 20 90 40 0 Cross City 75 62 72 39 52 / 10 10 80 50 0 Apalachicola 69 66 70 37 50 / 10 40 90 10 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...CAMP

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