Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 031121
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
615 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The primary feature of interest on the 03 UTC regional surface
analysis was a weak warm front approaching the FL Panhandle. This
system, combined with some Q-G forcing associated with an upper
level disturbance(s) were already beginning to generate scattered
light showers in GA and AL. There was good agreement among the
various MOS PoPs and QPF fields in continuing these scattered
showers through this afternoon, especially west of a line from
Apalachicola to Tifton (where the PoP is 50%). Some of the
Convection Allowing Models have isolated convective updrafts near 10
m/s where the SBCAPE is forecast to approach 600 J/kg- suggesting
the possibility of an isolated weak thunderstorm or two by late
morning or afternoon. Our QPF for this event is in the 0.10 to 0.40
inch range, with the highest values on the northwest fringes of our
forecast area. Despite abundant clouds, we expect high temperatures
to climb to above average- generally in the lower 70s (except mid to
upper 60s at the beaches, where the water temperatures are rather
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The short term period will feature ridging building aloft through
at least Thursday with low level southerly flow. This pattern will
tend to support widespread development of fog/low clouds by
midnight each night and then persisting into the morning hours.
The forecast each day is largely contingent on how quickly the
morning fog/low clouds mix out, which can be challenging to
predict. Given the building ridge across the region, if early
morning cloud cover clears out quickly enough, max temperatures
could easily approach or exceed 80 degrees, especially on
Thursday. Record highs for this time of year are generally in the
Rain chances are relatively low throughout the period, though some
isolated showers each afternoon are possible, especially on
Thursday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves near the
northwestern portion of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
The west/east trough/ridge pattern will continue through most of
the extended range. The strong ridge will hold enough of a grip
locally to allow for several days of near 80 degree temperatures.
The trough will make only gradual eastward progress after multiple
impulses eat away at the ridge. At the surface, between the trough
and ridge a quasi-stationary front will inch closer to the region.
This will be a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms with
each passing impulse. Expect the area of showers to remain rather
broad, possibly spreading into our northwest forecast area. Thus,
through the weekend, have kept a northwest to southeast PoP
gradient with essentially no rain expected southeast of a line
from Tifton to Apalachicola.
.AVIATION [Through 12 UTC Wednesday]...
Updated at 620 am EST-
Where there were breaks in the mid layer clouds early this morning,
patchy fog and/or low clouds formed. We expect any fog/low clouds to
dissipate by mid morning. Scattered SHRA continued to develop around
KDHN, KECP, and KABY, and will continue into this afternoon before
tapering off. Brief MVFR vis/cigs are possible in heavier SHRA,
otherwise the prevailing conditions will be VFR into this evening.
Conditions appear favorable for widespread dense fog and/or low cigs
later tonight, so we expect VLIFR conditions at all terminals,
possibly interfering with landing minimums.
Southerly flow at 15 knots or less will persist through the
forecast period. A cold front will approach the marine area on
Saturday evening, but should stall north of the waters. Sea fog
will be a possibility each night and early morning near the coast
starting Tuesday night.
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
With no significant rainfall this week, river levels will continue
to drop after last week`s rains.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 57 78 63 79 / 40 10 10 10 20
Panama City 71 62 74 66 74 / 50 10 10 10 20
Dothan 72 57 79 64 80 / 50 20 10 10 20
Albany 71 56 78 62 79 / 50 20 10 10 20
Valdosta 72 57 79 60 80 / 20 10 10 10 20
Cross City 74 56 78 59 78 / 20 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 68 62 71 65 71 / 40 10 10 10 10