Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 191041
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
639 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed 1012 mb low pressure
system centered over Apalachee Bay. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a potent mid-upper tropospheric low over the FL
Panhandle, which was wrapping drying, sinking air around it. The
heavy rain has ended in our forecast area, but scattered showers
and patchy drizzle will continue through much of the day. The
occluding low will translate slowly east northeast, and although
there will be a substantial dry slot aloft, there will be enough
boundary layer moisture for the low cloud cover to remain all
day...keeping high temperatures well below average (mid 60s, as
opposed to climo highs in the lower 80s). There is a slight chance
of a thunderstorm in North FL or South Central GA this afternoon
due to steep lapse rates aloft.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The local area will still be experiencing some impact of the slowly
departing Mid/Upper level shortwave trough tonight through Sunday.
For tonight, we could see a few lingering showers mainly along and
east of Albany to Cross City. Otherwise, we now believe that it will
be mostly cloudy across the region through the remainder of the
weekend due to wrap around moisture associated with this feature.
Although it will be warmer Sunday, the clouds and offshore flow
will keep temps below seasonal levels. Look for deep layer
ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06z Sunday] Widespread IFR to VLIFR cigs will continue
through this morning. Patchy -DZ and even isolated SHRA are also
possible. Cigs may finally reach low-end MVFR levels this at KECP
and KDHN. It`s unlikely that conditions will get much better than
this, even this evening. Scattered SHRA and (even isolated TSRA near
KVLD) will diminish by sunset. Surface winds will be N around 10 KT.
IFR to LIFR cigs are likely tonight as well.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level conditions with gusty northwest winds will continue
to spread from west to east across the coastal waters in the wake
of a departing low pressure system. Winds and seas should
gradually drop below headline criteria tonight with mostly light
winds and low seas expected at least for the first half of next
week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain
already and the rain will last until late evening or even longer
for the northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers
are in minor flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to
reach major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint
River and the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin
to fall early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and
will do so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get
another 1-2 inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  52  73  52  80 /  40  10   0   0   0
Panama City   67  53  74  57  78 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dothan        67  50  74  54  79 /  40  10   0   0   0
Albany        65  51  73  51  79 /  40  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  52  72  51  81 /  40  30   0   0   0
Cross City    71  53  76  52  80 /  30  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  54  72  56  75 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT






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