Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 210102
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Isolated convection from earlier activity is gradually
diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. Boundary
interactions along the Southeast Florida Big Bend resulted in a
strong thunderstorm across Taylor County this evening but this has
since dissipated. Expect a quiet night across the region with the
potential for some patchy fog, especially in locations that saw
some rain today, mainly into Southern Georgia and the Florida Big
Bend. Temperatures will be quite mild with lows in the mid to
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Slow moving mid level low pressure area will transition into a
low amplitude trough as it shifts slowly ewd across the
southeastern U.S. over the next several days. This will keep
unsettled weather around into at least Thursday with a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will be a bit
greater over our eastern counties where moisture will be more
plentiful. Clouds and residual outflow boundaries may make
afternoon highs a bit tricky to forecast, however in general
expect similar temperatures from today with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. A few stronger storms
can not be ruled out each afternoon, although overall severe
threat will remain fairly low.
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
Unsettled weather pattern will continue into the late part of the
week, but will replaced by drier weather for the weekend as a
slow moving trough finally shifts away from the area. A mid/upper
level ridge of high pressure will begin to establish itself over
the area for the holiday weekend into next week which should
preclude more than isolated afternoon showers/tstms. Temperatures
are expected to remain seasonal with highs in the upper 80s/lower
90s and overnight lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION [Through 00 UTC Wednesday]...
Convection is no longer expected to threaten the terminals this
evening. A period of MVFR visibility is possible from about
09-12Z. Scattered convection will develop mainly east of the
aerodrome tomorrow. However, we did include explicit 30 percent
chances for storms at VLD during the afternoon hours.
Pleasant weather and seas will remain the norm through the weekend
with light winds.
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days, as
minimum RH values will likely remain above locally critical levels.
Unsettled weather pattern will continue into the late week and
support scattered, slow moving thunderstorms each afternoon.
Although some localized flooding could occur with the heavier
storms, overall impacts should remain minor and no meaningful rise
is expected along area rivers.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 67 90 66 89 67 / 20 20 10 40 20
Panama City 70 84 69 83 70 / 20 20 10 20 20
Dothan 68 92 68 92 68 / 20 20 10 30 20
Albany 69 91 69 90 68 / 20 20 30 40 20
Valdosta 66 88 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 50 20
Cross City 66 89 65 87 64 / 30 40 30 40 20
Apalachicola 69 82 68 82 69 / 20 20 10 20 20