Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 060145
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
845 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Under SW steering flow...the earlier H5 shortwave exited east of
local area resulting in lull in rain this evening. H5 trough
continues to amplify ESE towards Lwr Ms Valley into TX. Next
shortwave ejects ewd from base of trough evolves into closed low
overnight and strengthens over LA near base of trough reaching
AL/GA by sunrise. At the surface...as second shortwave digs SEWD
it will deepen surface low south of LA coast. Warm front extends
from this low across Nrn Gulf of Mex. Persistent SW-NE thermal
trough noted across GA/AL.
As shortwave moves Ewd overnight enhancing lift...1)it interacts
with thermal trough and 2)it kicks invigorated gulf low ewd towards
ne gulf waters by sunrise lifting warm front further nwd with Wrn
segment approaching coast overnight. With shortwave and gulf low
approaching local are thru the night...both scenarios increase
overunning yielding and increase in drizzle then rain both in area
and intensity after midnight. Per RAP13 soundings, area PWATS
increase from around 1 inch 02z to around 1.2 inches 12z. Any
surface based Tstms should remain south of FL border.
Expect likely to Catergorical rain POPs...except somewhat less NE
Tier GA counties. Overnight QPF amounts will likely range from a
half inch along the Panhandle coast, to a quarter of an inch or less
further northeast. Generally light fog is possible especially
wherever heavier rain sets up. Cold air wedge down Appalachians into
GA will aid in isentropic lift and keep cloudy and cool weather
especially for our NE Tier GA counties. Overnight lows will show
small decrease west half but hold steady east half with lows
generally in the low-mid 40s GA/AL and mid 40s to 50 over FL.
[Through 00Z Friday]...This TAF cycle looks very pessimistic with
prevailing IFR/LIFR cigs and prevailing MVFR vsbys. Additionally,
widespread light to moderate rain will develop and overspread the
region late tonight and continue into at least late morning or
early Thursday afternoon.
We`re expecting 1-2" of rain through Friday, with isolated,
locally higher amounts possible. Because these amounts will be
spread out over a few days, the threat of flash flooding is low.
However, several points along area rivers may rise to "action"
stage by next week, meaning that some of our rivers could be
"primed" for flooding for the next round of soaking rain. The next
system to look out for comes mid-next week, although at this time
WPC QPF forecast is low, around 0.5-1.0", with higher rainfall
totals over the coastal waters.
.Prev Discussion [347 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Primary weather maker for the next couple of days over our area will
be the pronounced upper low now over the srn high plains as it
ejects rapidly enewd across the Gulf of Mexico as an open wave
through Friday. Models have been consistent with this feature and
associated surface low which is expected to develop over the
northeast Gulf and shift along a near stationary front extending
from near Cedar Key towards JAX during the day, keeping our area
is cool, e-ne flow. Rain chances will steadily increase through
the day with categorical PoPs CWA-wide as perhaps several bands
of showers move across the area. Primary area/band of storms
should move enewd through the afternoon with moderate to heavy
rainfall in the stronger cores. Although this activity will remain
elevated atop cool/stable surface air in place, it is not out of
the question for a few rumbles of thunder. However expect most of
the tstm activity will remain over the water or off to our s-se
where modest instability will be in place over the FL peninsula.
Pattern will remain unsettled into Friday as second round of
lighter showers will likely accompany main upper low/mid level trough as
it shifts over the area through Friday morning. Clearing will
shift from west to east across the tri-state region through the
day Friday. Most locations could see 1.5-2 inches of
rain with this event.
All in all expect continued cloudy, wet and cool
conditions for this time of year through Friday morning, with
general clearing and gradual warming as we get into the weekend.
With the clouds, rain and cool air entrenched north of the main
front/low track into Friday, have pushed max Ts down a bit Thu and
Fri with highs well below normal into the weekend. In fact it
would not be surprising if our northern counties fail to get out
of the 40s tomorrow.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
We should finally see some warming to around normal levels for the
weekend as pattern becomes more zonal. Unsettled weather will
move back into the area by mid week ahead of yet another system.
There remain differences between the operational GFS and Euro
with this next system as the Euro phases with a nrn stream
impulse and GFS does not. However, both bring another shot of rain
during the mid week period. Expect highs to return to the 70s Sat
through mid week.
Expect moderate east to northeast winds will increase tomorrow to
exercise caution levels as a surface low develops just south of the
area, with an increasing offshore component late Thursday into
Friday as the surface low moves across north FL. Much lower winds
and seas are expected this weekend. Rain chances and possibly an
a few thunderstorms can be expected tomorrow with weather clearing
from west to east through the day Friday.
Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
though dispersions will remain low through Friday.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 47 55 42 59 40 / 70 90 70 30 0
Panama City 51 56 45 59 49 / 80 90 70 10 0
Dothan 45 50 39 59 43 / 70 80 70 20 0
Albany 43 48 40 57 40 / 50 90 70 40 0
Valdosta 44 51 41 59 42 / 70 90 70 40 0
Cross City 50 61 48 63 42 / 70 90 60 30 0
Apalachicola 52 59 46 59 48 / 80 90 70 20 0