Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 112351
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
751 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Little additional convective development is expected this evening
despite the myriad outflow boundaries out there. The storms over
the Panhandle should be the last to die off and the radar should
be rain-free by 02Z. Our local WRF wants to bring some of the
convection over North GA and central AL tantalizingly close to our
northern zones later tonight, but most models do not support this
and we did not put it in the forecast grids. Isolated storms will
once again develop after midnight over the marine area.
[Through 00Z Friday] With convection finally winding down around
ECP, all sites should remain restriction free to start the night.
Expect MVFR visibilities at ECP and DHN tonight, clearing quickly
around sunrise. Most of the day tomorrow should be free of storms
at all terminals, with a late afternoon arrival of storms possible
at ABY and VLD.
.Prev Discussion [318 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The tropical wave trying to get itself organized off the east coast
of FL north of the Bahamas will likely not have much success as it
tracks west-southwestward across South FL and into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico by Friday evening. The wave will pass west of our
longitude on Saturday. Meanwhile, the front over the Ohio Valley
will push southeastward into central GA and southern AL Saturday
night. Sensible weather on Friday will be similar to today with the
upper ridge largely suppressing convection and allowing temps to
reach the lower to mid 90s. Our position to the east of the tropical
wave and the approaching front will increase PoPs for Saturday with
highest PoPs near the front.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The elongated east-west oriented ridge axis will still be in place
at the start of the period. However, it will begin to break down
early in the work week as a long wave trough begins to amplify into
the Southeast. This trough will help push the front currently draped
across the Ohio Valley toward the Gulf Coast. It is still uncertain
just how far south the front will make it before stalling. There
appears to be model consensus that there will be enough energy
upstream in the long wave trough to induce weak waves on the front
that will help inhibit its southward progress. The proximity of the
boundary through much of the period will result in unsettled
conditions with above normal PoPs for the most part. Max temps will
correspondingly be generally below normal from Monday onward.
A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place. This
will keep winds and seas well below any headline criteria.
No fire weather concerns at least through the middle of next week.
Rainfall totals over the next few days are expected to be below
normal and not have an impact on area rivers. However, QPF is
expected to increase next work week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 73 94 74 93 72 / 10 20 20 40 30
Panama City 76 91 77 90 76 / 10 20 20 40 30
Dothan 72 94 73 92 72 / 10 20 20 50 30
Albany 73 95 73 92 72 / 10 30 20 50 30
Valdosta 71 94 72 92 71 / 10 30 20 40 20
Cross City 71 93 71 92 70 / 10 20 20 30 20
Apalachicola 75 90 76 88 76 / 10 20 20 30 20