Area Forecast Discussion
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074 FXUS62 KTAE 190123 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 825 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2014 .Update...Nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions setting up with the center of high pressure settling in overhead. We should see our coldest temps since Feb 13 2012 by daybreak. .Near Term [Through Tonight]... Although the anomalous 500 mb trough was already beginning to lift out to the northeast, our coldest temperatures will be tonight as an area of high pressure becomes centered over southwest GA. The deep, dry airmass and calm winds will allow rapid radiational cooling to occur, sending record low temperatures into the upper teens to lower 20s inland (away from the cities). Only the beaches will escape a long, hard freeze, and even there we expect a light freeze. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... The aforementioned surface high will remain nearly stationary through Thursday, so we expect another freeze (lows in the 20s) Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The shallow cold airmass will limit vertical mixing (and warming), so high temperatures on Wednesday will still be below average (mid 50s). A gradual warming trend will begin Thursday afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s. Lows Thursday night will "only" reach the mid 30s. Given the forecast for low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s Thursday morning, we`ve issued a hard freeze watch for the FL Big Bend, North FL, and extreme south central GA. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... A deep layer ridge will develop over the Southeast on Friday as a warming trend continues. Aside from some minor timing differences, the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in bringing a vigorous southern stream trough (and associated cold front) through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. However, it does not look like this will be a "clean" frontal passage, as another, weaker system will translate quickly eastward across the Gulf Coast states early next week. After a relatively cool start Saturday morning (lows around 40 inland), temperatures will generally be above average. Highs will be in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Rain appears likely Saturday night and Sunday, with a chance of rain lingering into early next week. The Q-G forcing and jet stream magnitudes appear impressive in both models for Sunday`s system, which would suggest a threat of severe storms. However, both models forecast unimpressive SBCAPE values (less than 500 J/kg). && .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday] Unlimited cigs and unrestricted vsbys at least Wednesday evening. Winds will be less than 10 KTs through Wednesday.
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&& .Marine... Winds and seas have fallen just below advisory levels across the nearshore coastal waters, but will remain at advisory levels offshore through tonight. Moderate northeast winds will continue through Thursday as high pressure remains north and northeast of the marine area. && .Fire Weather... A red flag warning continues across the southeast corner of Alabama and portions of northwest Florida this Tuesday afternoon. Although max temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Wednesday, dew points will be very low resulting in minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens to lower 20s throughout the Tri-state region. Red flag conditions are likely across the same areas on Wednesday and the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to the Red Flag Warning. Increasing low level moisture starting on Thursday will offset any fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend. && .Hydrology... Any "bumps" in the local river stages from Monday`s rain will be minor. The next chance for rain will be Saturday night and Sunday. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 19 55 23 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 29 54 37 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 23 53 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 21 53 28 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 21 54 25 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 20 57 24 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 29 54 36 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Wednesday for Calhoun-Central Walton- Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf- Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden- Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf- Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton- Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton- Washington. Red Flag Warning from Noon EST /11 AM CST/ to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ Wednesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay- Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington. Hard Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison. GA...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay- Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier- Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole- Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. Hard Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Brooks-Lowndes. AL...Hard Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM CST Wednesday for Coffee- Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...BARRY NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.