Area Forecast Discussion
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034 FXUS62 KTAE 151947 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 347 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A noticeably cooler, drier airmass is in place in the wake of a cold front. The 12Z TAE sounding had an 850mb temperature of 8C, which is beyond 2 standard deviations below normal for us for October. The sounding reflected the drier air as well, with a PWAT of 0.45" (down from 2.14" at 12Z yesterday!), which is below the 25th percentile for October. With so much dry air aloft, skies will stay mostly clear today. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in our northwestern zones to upper 80s in our southeastern zones. Winds will pick up a bit early in the afternoon to around 10 MPH, with gusts of 15-20 MPH possible. Winds will weaken overnight and overnight temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to around 50. .Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... Deep cut-off low over the Ohio Valley will slowly migrate northeastward through Thursday keeping deep northwesterly flow in place across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over the western Gulf today will progress eastward through Friday bringing a more westerly wind flow. With a very dry airmass in place, no precip is expected. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the upper 70s for Thursday and lower 80s for Friday. Lows around 50 Thursday night and lower 50s Friday night. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... A deep trough will remain over eastern CONUS bringing strong northwesterly flow aloft. At the sfc, no significant features are expected to develop. This means drier cooler air through the extended period with no rain expected. A low is expected to develop over the Gulf and linger there for several days. The coastal waters could see some cloud cover from this low, but rain is unlikely. Highs will hold steady in the upper 70s/low 80s, which is near average for this time of year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle 50s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds from the west. Winds will generally be around 10 knots today with gusts to around 15 knots possible at Nrn terminals. Although winds will fall to around 5 knots briefly overnight, they will increase again tomorrow after sunrise.
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&& .Marine...
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West-northwest flow near exercise caution levels will continue today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. Conditions will improve tonight and Thursday with light winds and minimal seas continuing through the weekend. Exercise caution conditions may briefly occur Thursday afternoon.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Despite a drier air mass across the region through the weekend, RH values are not expected to fall to critical levels. RH values on Friday may approach red flag thresholds in the western part of our area, but winds should have decreased sufficiently such that red flag conditions are not expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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While we did get a lot of rain yesterday, the rivers were already very low. There are no flooding concerns at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 50 79 48 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 59 78 56 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 49 77 49 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 50 77 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 50 77 50 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 53 79 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 58 77 55 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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