Area Forecast Discussion
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353 FXUS62 KTAE 250336 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1036 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Current fcst is basically well on track with mostly cloudy and cool conditions dominating the region with a few patches of very light rain falling across parts of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend and especially over the northern Gulf of Mexico. As was the case last night, did make some slight downward adjustments to temps with values ranging from around 40 over most of SE AL and western portions of the FL Panhandle (similar to last night as of 10 pm EST), but unlike last night, the very cool and clammy air has progressed further to the south and east. Tonight, temps have already dropped into the upper 40s to the lower 50s over most areas to the south and east of the Apalachicola River.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday] Yet another complex Taf fcst over the next 24 hrs, with generally MVFR to possibly IFR Cigs (esp. at VLD) moving through from time to time underneath canopies of mid and upper level VFR Cigs. Did go with some lower Vis at VLD and now amended for ABY as their lower Cigs have dissipated for the time being. On Wed., rain will be moving in from west to east across the CWA with many Hi-Res WRF runs showing a fairly potent squall line during the late afternoon and early evening hours. At this time, have limited TSTMS to TLH and ECP.
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&& .Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Shortwave exiting the Desert Southwest will approach the Central Gulf Coast on Wednesday with surface low pressure deepening over the north central Gulf. Divergence aloft ahead of the upper system coupled with very strong isentropic forcing ahead of the surface low will lead to a large area of rain spreading over the forecast area during the day on Wednesday. A good soaking rain is in store for the region with rainfall totals generally in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. With the stationary frontal boundary nearly bisecting the forecast area, temperatures will vary widely on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the mid 40s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeastern Big Bend. Of mild concern is the very strong low level jet which is forecast to precede the surface low. H85 winds will exceed 55 knots across the Big Bend by late Wednesday, with 0-1km shear values exceeding 50 knots. Guidance also indicates that a small wedge of instability may push onshore in the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend late in the afternoon into the early evening. There may be just enough instability to generate a few severe thunderstorms during this period, with the best chance for damaging winds/isolated tornado generally south of a line from Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta. The rain will exit to the east by late Wednesday night with relatively weak high pressure building in for Thursday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably cool, with highs on Thursday ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to the mid 60s in the southeast. Lows are forecast to remain above freezing through Friday morning. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... For Friday into the weekend, a broad trough will be in place across the eastern half of the country with strong high pressure parked over the midwestern states. This sprawling high will keep the weather seasonably cool across the forecast area. A lingering stalled frontal boundary south of the region may wiggle back north just enough on Saturday to introduce a few showers into the southeastern half of the area. However, the next significant chance of rain is not expected until Sunday or Monday when the high breaks down and allows warmth and moisture to flow northward once again. .Marine... Light offshore flow overnight will shift to southerly and increase rapidly Wednesday afternoon, as low pressure approaches the waters from the west. Winds and seas will reach small craft advisory levels during the afternoon, with winds shifting to the northwest and diminishing Wednesday night. High pressure north of the waters will keep offshore flow in place through the end of the week, with conditions occasionally reaching exercise caution or advisory levels, especially as the weekend approaches. .Fire Weather... A developing low pressure system will traverse the Gulf Coast on Wednesday creating very high rain chances and Wet Flag conditions across the Tri-state area. Thereafter, no fire weather problems are expected for the remainder of the week as afternoon relative humidities will remain well above Red Flag levels. .Hydrology... A coastal low pressure system tomorrow is forecast to produce a widespread total of 1.5-2.5" of rain across the forecast area. No flooding is forecast, however, these totals will cause rises along our area rivers and bring several sites along the Kinchafoonee Creek and the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and Upper Withlacoochee Rivers into action stage. The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta is likely to crest near minor flood stage by the end of the week and could reach a higher and earlier peak if rainfall totals end up being higher than currently forecast.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 46 56 46 58 39 / 20 100 90 10 10 Panama City 47 55 46 56 41 / 30 100 90 10 10 Dothan 40 48 36 54 36 / 20 100 80 10 10 Albany 41 50 38 55 36 / 20 100 90 10 10 Valdosta 45 57 47 58 41 / 20 100 100 10 10 Cross City 49 62 54 64 43 / 30 40 100 20 10 Apalachicola 50 59 47 58 43 / 30 80 90 10 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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