Area Forecast Discussion
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061 FXUS62 KTAE 191917 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 317 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Moisture-rich environment combined with diffluent flow aloft and isentropic ascent to generate widespread rains today with scattered embedded thunderstorms. Lapse rates have been anemic and shear is gradually weakening, so stronger storms are no longer anticipated, except perhaps over the Gulf of Mexico. The abundant cloud cover and precipitation have kept temps in the 70s for much of the area, with 80s over our eastern and westernmost zones. Some recovery is anticipated late in the day once the large rain shield over the FL Big Bend pushes east. It will be replaced by more cellular convection moving in from the west. PoPs are likely to categorical. Overnight, PoPs drop back to the chance (scattered) category after sunset. However, most CAMs show another area of convection developing over the Gulf and moving ashore into the FL Panhandle. We bring likely PoPs back to that area after midnight. .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... A generally stagnant upper level pattern will lead to unsettled weather and elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms during. the short term period. Locally, this will be highlighted aloft by a very strong upper ridge over Rockies and another weaker ridge over Wrn Atlc. In between, an amplified trough dominates Ern states. Shortwave energy diving into base of trough amplifies axis ESE thru at least Monday before beginning to weaken. At surface, shortwave pushes surface low to across SE AL on Sun, Srn GA at night and extending into adjacent waters on Mon with stationary front W-E. All this yields SSW flow sfc to at least H5 with PWATs generally 2.2 to 2.3 inches thru the period. This upper/lower scenario will favor deep layer inflow, upper forcing and outflow boundary/seabreeze clashes producing locally heavy rain and will still have to keep an eye on Storm Total Rainfall for some potential minor/nuisance flooding in any low lying and poor drainage areas. Cannot discount strong storms with ample lightning and gusty winds especially with boundary clashes. Will go W-E POP gradient thru the period with 50-70% W-E POP gradient each day, 30-50% Sun night and 20-40% Mon night. High temps tricky and will depend on the amount of cloud cover and rainfall, with any areas that do not see any/many breaks in the overcast remaining in the upper 80s. A few areas that do see a couple hours of insolation could break the 90 degree mark. Lows in the low 70s. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The first two days of the longterm will be near or above climatology in terms of rain chances while temperatures are expected to be below climatology. The increased chances for rain will be due to general longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS and an upper low that is forecast to cut off from the mean 250mb flow and move southwest. As this low rotates around a fairly anomalous ridge over the Western US, rain chances will remain high through Wednesday. After Wednesday afternoon, models diverge slightly but both the Euro/GFS suggest a return to near normal climatological rain chances. For the end of the long term took an equal blend of HPC, Euro, and GFS guidance.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Sunday] This forecast is more pessimistic than the last. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the aerodrome through much of the forecast period with a lull during part of the night. We no longer expect VFR conditions overnight. The latest model data indicates that IFR ceilings will be likely at most TAF sites. An early start to convection is indicated for Sunday morning.
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&& .Marine...
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A low pressure system off to our west will increase onshore winds slightly to the west of Apalachicola thru tonight, and a long fetch of southerly winds deep into the Gulf of Mexico will increase seas over our western coastal waters into the 2 to 4 foot range. However, this will be below any headline levels, and further to the east, winds and seas will remain significantly lower. By Sunday and beyond, a weaker pressure pattern more typical for summertime will return, resulting in light winds and low seas for the rest of the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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A moist pattern is expected to persist for the next several days with increased rain chances each afternoon and evening.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Rain chances will be quite a bit higher than recently through the weekend and into early next week. Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the western half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches to the east through Monday. These rainfall amounts should not be widespread enough to cause any river flooding, although some localized minor flooding in the usual flood prone areas will be possible.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 89 73 89 72 / 30 60 40 60 50 Panama City 77 87 77 88 74 / 40 60 40 50 40 Dothan 72 88 72 91 71 / 40 60 30 40 20 Albany 72 88 71 88 72 / 40 60 40 50 30 Valdosta 71 90 72 89 71 / 30 70 50 60 50 Cross City 72 90 72 88 71 / 20 60 40 60 50 Apalachicola 77 87 75 87 75 / 30 50 40 50 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...BLOCK/DOBBS AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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