Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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740
FXUS62 KTAE 230117
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
917 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE
GA AND AL COUNTIES. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN AND ANOTHER INCH IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY
IN AL AND GA. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AND VERY LOW CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MVFR LIKELY LATE MORNING AND VFR LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [349 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
DRAGGING A SWWD TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH IT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
POPS WILL BE CHANCE TO LIKELY IN THE MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE, IT
WILL BE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ON
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. THIS WILL SERVE TO BRING COOLER TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER GA ZONES.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
MOVING EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
EARLY FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS THE AXIS TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND COULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS RANGING FORM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER TO
MID 60S SOUTH. A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY EVEN SEE A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL SHOW THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST GEORGIA ZONES.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO BECOME EAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ELEVATE TO
AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA.


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODEST RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH A FEW FORECAST
POINTS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REACHING
ACTION STAGE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   62  78  53  74  56 /  80  50  10   0   0
PANAMA CITY   62  73  52  70  59 /  50  40  10   0   0
DOTHAN        57  73  48  71  54 /  80  50  10   0   0
ALBANY        56  66  48  68  54 /  90  50  10   0   0
VALDOSTA      61  71  50  71  56 /  90  70  20   0   0
CROSS CITY    64  79  53  76  58 /  70  60  20   0   0
APALACHICOLA  64  79  55  70  59 /  60  40  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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