Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 170740
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Slightly cooler and much drier air is advecting into the CWA behind
a rare mid-July Cold Front. As of early this morning, the front was
located approximately along a NE to SW line from Tifton GA, to
Bainbridge GA, to Bonifay FL, to Panama City FL. It is still fairly
warm and humid out ahead of it with temps in the middle 70s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s as of 300 AM EDT, but behind it, both
temps and dewpoints are already falling into and through the 60s in
many locations. This dry air will continue its SE push today, and
outside of some passing layers of Cirrus at 25,000ft, a mostly
sunny, seasonably hot, but unseasonably dry day is expected across
the entire region, resulting in a very rare PoP free day for the
heart of July.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
The dry airmass in place overnight will result in temperatures
dropping into the low to mid 60s over interior areas, which will
be near record minimums for July 18th. By Friday, moisture will
be on the increase across the region, but still expect rain
chances to be below normal for mid July. Limited convective
activity and partly cloudy skies should allow temperatures to warm
into the low to mid 90s across inland areas.

By Saturday, model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that
an upper level trough will move over the region. This trough will
combine with increasing deep layer moisture to produce at least
scattered showers and storms across the region. With convection
expected to start early in the day, high temperatures on Saturday
will only approach 90.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Saturday morning a low pressure system will move into the region,
bringing plenty of clouds and increasing rain chances. The sfc low
will move out by Monday morning but the cold front will likely stall
out over the southeast states supported by an upper level trough.
This upper level trough will linger throughout the remainder of the
forecast period increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs around 90.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday]
Outside of the very pessimistic conditions that still exist at
VLD out ahead of the cold front with IFR to LIFR level Vis and
Cigs, nearly unlimited VFR conditions with light winds have
arrived and are here to stay at the Taf sites through at least the
next 24-36 hours. VLD should begin to improve to VFR levels as
well once the Cold Front passes on through, which should occur
sometime between 12 and 15 UTC this morning.

&&

.Marine...
A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in
place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas
for the next several days.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Despite the influx of the much drier air, Red Flag conditions are
still not expected to occur over the Tri-State area during the next
couple of days during the peak of this air mass. Thereafter,
moisture and rain chances will be back on the increase over the
weekend allowing relative humidities to return to above normal
levels.

&&

.Hydrology...
Scattered storms will return to the forecast by the weekend, but
widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time. While some
storms may result in some localized rises on area creeks and
streams, the mainstem river will continue to remain below flood
stages.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  65  94  73  91 /   0   0  20  20  40
Panama City   89  70  90  73  89 /   0   0  20  20  50
Dothan        91  66  92  71  90 /   0   0  20  20  50
Albany        92  65  92  72  91 /   0   0  20  20  50
Valdosta      93  67  93  70  91 /   0   0  20  20  40
Cross City    90  67  92  71  93 /   0   0  20  20  40
Apalachicola  89  68  90  73  89 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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