Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 150705

305 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
In the wake of the cold front that has pushed through the area, a
drier air mass is advecting in. The drying through a deep layer
should lead to relatively clear skies. Models are very consistent
in showing 850mb temperatures around 8-9C this afternoon near the
top of the mixed layer, which usually corresponds to highs in the
upper 70s on well-mixed days. This was very close to the result of
00Z model consensus, so our forecast did not stray far from that.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Deep cut-off low over the Ohio Valley will slowly migrate
northeastward through Thursday keeping deep northwesterly flow in
place across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the western Gulf today will slide eastward through Friday. With a
very dry airmass in place (PWAT below 1 inch), no precip is
expected. Temperatures will be close to normal, with highs in the
upper 70s for Thursday and lower 80s for Friday, and lows around
50 the next two nights.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally
through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will
remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold
steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of
year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle


[Through 12Z Thursday] Other than a few lingering clouds, skies have
mostly cleared out overnight. VFR conditions should prevail through
the TAF period with westerly winds.


Offshore flow near exercise caution conditions will continue
today as high pressure builds over the western Gulf. Conditions
will improve tonight and Thursday with light winds and minimal
seas continuing through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Although a drier air mass is expected across the region,
especially Wednesday to Friday, RH values are not expected to fall
to critical levels. RH values on Friday may approach red flag
thresholds in the western part of our area, but winds should have
decreased sufficiently such that red flag conditions are not


Several area rivers have shown sharp rises in response to the
rain that fell over the past 24-36 hours. However, prior to this
rain event river levels were so low that it is unlikely any of our
forecast points will reach minor flood stage. In fact, only a few
points along the Shoal and Choctawhatchee rivers are forecast to
remain in, or reach action stage.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  50  79  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   77  56  78  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  50  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  50  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    80  50  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  77  57  77  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South




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