Area Forecast Discussion
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855 FXUS62 KTAE 180613 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 213 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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A short wave currently over the western Great Lakes will drop southeastward into the Tennessee Valley further amplifying the east coast trough. This will send a dry cold front down from the north which will push into our Georgia and Alabama zones this afternoon. Ahead of the front, we can expect the warming trend to continue with light westerly winds and plenty of sunshine. Max temps will be in the mid 80s except possibly lower 80s for our northernmost zones and along the immediate coast. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... Upper trough moving through the eastern U.S. will drive a dry cold front through the area tonight, ushering in a slightly cooler airmass for Sunday and Monday. Following the cold front, expect temperatures to be near seasonal normals with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in eventually carving out a broad 500 mb low that will be centered over the Mid Atlantic Region mid to late week. Our forecast area will be under the influence of dry, northwest flow aloft for much of this period. A weak, dry cold front will pass through our region on Wednesday, bringing a reinforcing surge of slightly cooler, drier air. High temperatures will be near average Monday (mid 70s to around 80), a little above average Tuesday (lower to mid 80s), then near average for the remainder of the week (mid to upper 70s). Lows will be near average (lower to mid 50s) through Wednesday, then a little below average (upper 40s) for the remainder of the week. PoPs will be 10% or less.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail under mostly clear skies through the period. Winds will be light westerly becoming northerly in the wake of dry cold front later today and tonight.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds and seas will increase tonight and Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Exercise caution conditions will be possible late tonight into through midday tomorrow. Winds will diminish and become easterly by Monday and remain below headline criteria through mid-week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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There are no fire weather concerns at this time.
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&& .Hydrology...
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For the most part the crest waves from the heavy rain on Tuesday have already occurred or were beginning to decline, and did so below action stage. The exception is the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce, which is forecast to reach action stage on Sunday, but still remain about 3 ft below flood stage. Otherwise, having had a dry period since Wednesday, and expecting no rain through next week, there are no river issues.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 86 52 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 84 58 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 84 50 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 49 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 85 52 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 53 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 82 59 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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