Area Forecast Discussion
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325 FXUS62 KTAE 261910 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 310 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a decaying, quasi-stationary front across central FL and off the Southeast coast, and increasingly higher pressure (from south to north) across the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed precipitable water values (which have been below climatology the past few days) gradually increasing from southeast to northwest. Local radars were showing some rain along the northeast FL coast, and we expect isolated to scattered showers & thunderstorms to develop across north FL later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, after occasional breaks in the clouds this afternoon, low clouds will return to the entire forecast area overnight. The non-zero wind speeds and clouds will prevent temperatures from cooling too much, with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. After this evening, rain chances will be confined mainly to the coastal waters. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Deep moisture will be in place throughout the period with forecast PW`s in the 2.0" to 2.3" range. As the upper trough approaches, a weak surface low is likely to develop just south of New Orleans on Sunday. This feature will slide eastward over or near our Florida zones by Sunday evening further enhancing showers and thunderstorms across our local region. Some heavy rainfall amounts could occur, especially Sunday and Sunday night over the Florida panhandle. QPF amounts are currently in the 1-3 inch range through the next 48 hours for these ares with the potential of isolated amounts up to 6 inches. There is still a lot of uncertainty with amounts and location and will be monitored closely on the next few model runs. PoPs will be in the likely to categorical range. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows around 70. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The surface low is forecast to continue to track eastward across our Florida zones Monday with a continuing threat for some heavy rainfall, especially along the Gulf coast. As the surface low and upper trough shift to our east Monday night into Tuesday we will see a gradual decrease in deep layer moisture along with significantly lower rain chances through the remainder of the week. Expect temperatures to run near or just above normal.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18z Saturday] Mainly VFR cigs (3200-4000 ft AGL) are expected through this evening. Isolated TSRA are possible across north FL. There is excellent agreement among MOS and the dynamical models in low cigs developing overnight, though how low is still in question. We used a blend of persistence, MOS, high-res NWP, and SREF for the timing & cig height, and we expect low-end MVFR cigs to develop at all terminals between 3z and 9z, with occasional IFR (or lower) cigs. Cigs will slowly lift through MVFR levels late Saturday morning and afternoon. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop mainly after 18z Saturday.
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&& .Marine...
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Northeasterly flow will continue through tonight before shifting to easterly on Saturday and southeasterly Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions will likely reach exercise caution levels beginning tonight and continuing at least through Saturday for all but Apalachee Bay. Light to occasionally moderate winds can be expected as they swing around from the east to west Saturday night into early next week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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As we transition to a very wet pattern, there will be no fire weather concerns through at least early next week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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General rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across the forecast area through Monday, except 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not expected to result in any river flooding due to low flows from the recent dry summer. However, isolated instances of flash flooding cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday, mainly along the panhandle coast. It is too soon to consider any watches, but this trend will have to be monitored.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 69 86 72 86 71 / 10 50 50 70 60 Panama City 71 84 74 85 74 / 10 60 70 80 60 Dothan 65 85 70 84 69 / 10 40 60 80 60 Albany 66 85 70 85 69 / 10 40 40 70 60 Valdosta 68 86 70 86 70 / 20 50 30 60 50 Cross City 71 86 71 87 70 / 30 60 40 60 50 Apalachicola 72 84 75 84 75 / 20 60 70 80 60
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...DVD

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