Area Forecast Discussion
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701 FXUS62 KTAE 271814 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 214 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Expect a quiet evening and overnight across the region. Skies will gradually clear after sunset as the heating of the day is lost. The last couple of nights has featured areas of fog or stratus developing two or three hours before sunrise. Expect that this will occur again on Monday morning, primarily across the southeastern portion of the region. Should be another muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... This period will be characterized by strongly amplifying meridional flow with a deepening upper trough over the eastern half of the country and strong ridge across the west. This will push an unusually strong summer cold front across the forecast area late Monday through Tuesday. The front will be poised just to our north across south central AL and GA Monday evening, and will move to a position from around Albany to Destin after midnight. Tuesday morning the front will extend from Valdosta to Apalachicola and will exit the Big Bend area by midday Tuesday. The upper flow is so amplified the front is likely to make it as far south as Key West by late in the week. Ahead of the front, a very hot and humid airmass will be in place, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s Monday afternoon. With dewpoints in the mid 70s, we will still see heat indices exceed 105 degrees over a large portion of the area, with values as high as 108 degrees possible in our Florida counties, so another heat advisory may be needed for Monday afternoon. As the front approaches southern AL and southern GA tomorrow afternoon and evening, there will be broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the area. Cape values will approach 4000 J/Kg Monday afternoon and evening ahead of the front with nearly unidirectional deep west-northwest flow aloft and drying at mid levels. This scenario will result in some damaging straight-line winds as the main threat. There could be some hail reports due to very strong updraft values, but with the airmass being so warm it may be difficult to get large hail at the surface. Expect the threat of severe storms from early afternoon until around 9pm-10pm. A much drier airmass will push in behind the front on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with dewpoints dropping well into the 60s. Temperatures will be cooler as well, as 500mb heights drop a good 60 meters through this period. Highs will range from the upper 80s along the northern border, to lower to mid 90s along the coast and across the Big Bend. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The full latitude eastern CONUS trough will continue to amplify through the period. The front which will move across the area early in the week will usher in much drier and cooler air through Thursday, with the possibility of reaching some record morning lows. The long standing records for this period at Tallahassee are: July 30 - 67 (1927) July 31 - 63 (1896) Aug 1 - 64 (1993) Expect generally dry and relatively cool conditions for Wednesday and Thursday with very low PoPs. Thursday and Friday morning lows, July 31st and Aug 1st, will range from 65-70. By late Thursday, moisture will begin to increase once again across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main upper trough moves into the forecast area. For Friday through the weekend expect a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The increased convection for the end of the week and weekend will keep high temperatures in the 85 to 90 range across the area.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail through the evening and early overnight hours. Between 08z and 10z expect an area of MVFR-IFR cigs to develop between ECP-TLH-VLD. These restrictions should last through about 14z before VFR conditions will return. TSRA are expected after 18z Monday, particularly at DHN/ABY.
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&& .Marine...
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The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the south and the approaching cold front to the north will tighten tonight through Tuesday with westerly winds reaching exercise caution levels at times. Winds will gradually diminish and become offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Red flag conditions are not expected for the next couple of days. Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Relative humidity values may approach critical levels on Wednesday in North Florida.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Shoal River at Mossy Head has reached bank full stage but continues to fall. All other area rivers are below bank full stage. Thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall on Monday but widespread impacts are not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 78 96 73 95 67 / 10 50 50 20 10 Panama City 80 91 77 91 73 / 10 40 40 20 10 Dothan 76 96 70 91 67 / 10 50 50 10 0 Albany 77 96 70 91 66 / 10 50 50 10 0 Valdosta 77 96 71 93 65 / 10 50 50 20 10 Cross City 78 94 76 93 69 / 10 30 30 40 10 Apalachicola 80 91 77 92 73 / 10 30 30 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf- Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden- Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton- Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton- Washington. High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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