Area Forecast Discussion
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280
FXUS62 KTAE 170221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

In the wake of a cold front, dry air is spilling into the region.
Some weak cold air advection will be responsible for the fall of
temperatures to start the night, with marginal radiational cooling
to end the night as winds calm. Expect middle 30s north and west
of a line from Albany to Panama City, and upper 30s to around 40
degrees away from the coast elsewhere.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under clear skies and light winds will prevail
through the TAF.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.


.Marine...

Winds around SCEC levels will be possible west of Apalachicola
tonight, before the winds diminish through Thursday Night. On
Friday, the winds will increase again with the approach of a low-
pressure system with SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night
or Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   44  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        37  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    40  66  38  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  44  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS






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