Area Forecast Discussion
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303
FXUS62 KTAE 210944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
444 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will persist through most of
this period, although ceilings will gradually lower late in the
period. DHN and ECP should see some MVFR ceilings develop tonight
with some IFR possible at DHN late in the period. Gusty south-
southeast winds are forecast during the late morning and afternoon
hours, perhaps as high as 25-30kt.

&&

.Prev Discussion [418 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A warm front will lift gradually northeast across the region today
with noticeably milder temps the result. It will also not be nearly
as dry as recent days. However, any mentionable rain chances should
hold off until after sunset.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Tonight will begin with generally zonal flow aloft across the
Southeast, and a large, broad trough covering the northern half of
the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
northwest Atlantic will yield southerly flow across the Tri-State
region. A weakening area of low pressure will be present across
the lower Mississippi Valley, the result of a departing southern
stream anomaly. Through Monday, the northern stream trough will
essentially remain confined to the northern CONUS while one more
southern stream anomaly will pass through the Southeast in the
zonal flow regime. The aforementioned area of surface low
pressure will continue to weaken and drift east until Monday when
a combination of the passing southern stream anomaly and surface
high pressure building south, move the surface trough out of the
region.

As far as rain is concerned, the southerly flow around the ridge
tonight will force a ribbon of isentropic rain within the 295-300K
window. This rain will be rather light and should remain confined
to the Panhandle (west of the Apalachicola River) and southeast
Alabama. As the previously mentioned surface trough drifts into
the region on Sunday, rain chances will spread east. The best
chance for rain on Sunday will be along and north of a line from
Berrien through Bay county. The "heaviest" rain will likely be
Sunday night into Monday morning as the second southern stream
anomaly moves through the Southeast. This round of rain will
mostly be limited to southeast Alabama and south Georgia. Rain
chances will taper from west to east across south Georgia on
Monday as the system departs to the east. Storm total rainfall
amounts shouldn`t exceed a half of an inch.

Temperatures will be quite warm on Sunday, with middle and upper
70s across south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.
Elsewhere, lower 70s will be more common. On Monday, highs will
range from the upper 50s across Alabama and most of Georgia where
the most rain is expected, to the lower 70s in the southeast Big
Bend. Overnight lows will run around 10 degrees above normal.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There`s finally starting to be some agreement between the primary
global models as to the evolution of the extended range forecast
period, though there remains plenty of uncertainty w.r.t. the
finer details. We`ll start out with zonal flow continuing across
the Southeast. The northern CONUS trough will have split into an
essentially cutoff low over the Central Great Basin and the
primary northern stream anomaly over the Northeast. The anomaly
out west will elongate as it drops into the zonal flow regime
across the southern CONUS and gradually weaken through its trek
across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through
Wednesday. The remnant shortwave will pass through the Southeast
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With the passage of this
system, the Southeast will return to a rather benign zonal pattern
to finish the period.

Aside from the possibility of some very light rain on Tuesday,
forced way up on the 320K surface from a weak southern stream
anomaly, the resultant surface pattern and sensible weather will
feature cyclogenesis along the western Gulf coast as the primary
shortwave moves east. Low-level isentropic ascent over the
developing warm front will begin Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, with the low moving across the northeast Gulf and north-
central Florida Wednesday afternoon and night. At this time it
appears as though all rain will come to an end by Thursday
morning. Severe weather does not seem likely with this system due
to the low track and the meager instability even in the warm
sector.

With the unsettled pattern through the extended range, expected
average temperatures to remain below normal. This means we probably
won`t have any really cold nights, but our afternoon temperatures
will most likely remain 10 degrees or so below average.


.Marine...

Solid Advisory conditions currently ongoing across the Gulf will
gradually weaken through the day with seas following around 6
hours behind. Expect Advisory level seas to last into the night
tonight. High pressure will build south into the Gulf early next
week, increasing seas once again to at least Cautionary levels. A
more substantial increase in winds and seas will come mid to late
week next week as a strong area of low pressure passes through the
northern Gulf.


.Fire Weather...

Onshore flow will increase humidity levels substantially today
compared to recent days with red flag conditions not expected in the
near future.


.Hydrology...

A round of light rain is possible early next week, but totals will
be too low to cause significant rises on our area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  51  77  58  67 /   0  10  20  30  20
Panama City   65  59  71  57  63 /  10  20  40  30  20
Dothan        67  56  72  51  56 /   0  30  70  40  30
Albany        66  52  73  52  57 /   0  20  60  40  40
Valdosta      69  51  78  58  65 /   0  10  20  20  30
Cross City    71  49  78  58  73 /   0  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  65  58  70  59  65 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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