Area Forecast Discussion
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197 FXUS62 KTAE 280221 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more moisture will bring about light rain.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Sunday]... VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night. The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.
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&& .Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool, and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon. This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon. Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of the period. .Marine... A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage. Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .Hydrology... Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend. Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend. With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 45 58 50 68 58 / 10 20 20 10 20 Panama City 45 59 51 63 58 / 10 10 10 10 20 Dothan 37 55 44 60 54 / 0 10 10 10 30 Albany 38 51 44 59 53 / 0 10 20 30 30 Valdosta 45 54 48 67 59 / 10 20 30 20 20 Cross City 47 61 54 73 60 / 40 50 30 10 20 Apalachicola 49 60 55 65 61 / 20 30 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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