Area Forecast Discussion
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603
FXUS62 KTAE 210029
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An inverted trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will touch off
some isolated to scattered showers overnight, mainly across our FL
zones. PoPs were lowered from the previous forecast. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions initially this evening will
drop to MVFR after 06Z mainly due to cigs. Some light rain may
result in a brief drop in vsby at the TLH/ECP terminal before 12Z,
but ceilings should be the main concern. Cloud cover will take
some time to thin on Wednesday, with VFR conditions not likely
returning until 16Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.Prev Discussion [324 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Zonal flow will be in place at the start of the period. An inverted
surface trough will be in place just south of the forecast area and
could touch off some isolated showers Wednesday morning. The balance
of the day will be dry and mild with highs within a couple of
degrees either side of 70. This pattern will hold Wednesday night
with mild rain-free conditions and lows 8-10 degrees above normal.
By Thursday, cyclogenesis will occur off the South Texas coast in
response to an upper trough deepening over the Southern Plains. As
this low tracks across the northern Gulf of Mexico, frontogenetic
forcing will increase across the forecast area. Slight chance PoPs
in the afternoon for our western zones will transition to likely for
much of the forecast area by dawn Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Most models bring the gulf low northeast across the forecast area
Friday afternoon and evening. PoPs will be categorical. We could
easily see 2-3 inches of rain from this system. However, thunder
will be restricted to our southeastern zones closer to the low level
instability. As the low moves off the Carolina Coast, drier and
cooler air will arrive in its wake for the weekend. A clipper system
will then dive southeast across the Carolinas on Monday, possibly
bringing some isolated showers to the northeast gulf region.


.Marine...
Winds will be light but shifting through the night as a trough moves
east across the waters. East to northeast winds will increase to
cautionary levels Thursday night. Expect more shifting winds on
Friday as low pressure moves northeast across the marine area. As
the low pulls northeast of the area, northwest winds in its wake
will increase to advisory levels behind it for Friday night and
Saturday.


.Fire Weather...
Moisture levels will slowly increase throughout the week as a storm
system approaches the region on Thursday night into Friday. After
widespread rain across the region on Friday, drier air will begin to
arrive late Saturday. With cooler temperatures expected late in the
weekend, red flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...
All area rivers are below flood stage and either steady or falling.
A low pressure system could bring widespread 2-3 inch rainfall
totals from Thursday night into Saturday morning. This would cause
rises on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  71  50  68  55 /  20  10   0  10  60
Panama City   53  67  52  64  55 /  30  10   0  20  70
Dothan        48  67  46  62  50 /  10   0   0  20  70
Albany        46  68  45  62  50 /  10  10   0  10  60
Valdosta      47  69  47  67  54 /  20  10   0  10  50
Cross City    49  72  50  72  56 /  20  10   0  10  40
Apalachicola  53  69  54  67  58 /  30  10   0  20  60

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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