Area Forecast Discussion
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727
FXUS62 KTAE 151942
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A strong cold front will push southeastward through the entire CWA
overnight with much colder and drier air building in from the
northwest on strong cold air advection. Any lingering low
cloudiness will also dissipate from west to east after sunset, and
temperatures will steadily fall as the NW winds will continue to
persist. By sunrise, low temps are expected to bottom out in the
middle 30s across the NW 1/3 of the region to the upper 30s to
lower 40s further to the south and east. These unseasonably cold
temperatures when combined with at least 5 to 10 mph winds will
produce wind chill readings between 28 and 35 degrees at most
locations over the tri-state area. However, since we are no longer
expecting any actual low temperatures at or below freezing (mainly
due to the elevated winds and saturated ground), have cancelled
the Freeze Watch which was in effect for much of SE AL and the
interior of Walton county in the FL Panhandle. Furthermore, no
frost is anticipated to form overnight as the winds will remain
too high and relative humidities too low.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A ridge of high pressure and a briefly drier air mass will control
the regional weather through Wednesday evening with mostly sunny
skies. The morning hours are likely to be quite chilly, but by
afternoon we should warm into the 60s to perhaps around 70 degrees
in the Florida Big Bend. The surface high pressure ridge will
erode quickly from early Thursday morning onward. Easterly
boundary layer flow and increasing moisture should lead to
gradually increasing chances of rain showers, although PoPs
through the entire period are below 50%. With a slight amount of
instability Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, we included
isolated thunderstorm wording in those periods as well. There are
still significant differences between various models on the
possible development of a surface low in the Gulf associated with
a digging shortwave trough on Thursday. For now, we have adopted a
consensus approach that reflects gradually increasing easterly
flow and chances of rain showers.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Both the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement showing a
low over the Gulf phasing with a trough extending down from the
Great Lakes on Friday. This will kick off another round of showers
and storms through Friday evening. Ridging settles in by Saturday
and temperatures begin to trend towards climo. On Monday, zonal
flow brings another weak system north of our CWA but it appears
there will only be a slight chance of rain with this system.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] MVFR CIGS will continue for all terminals
and will begin clearing to VFR from west to east tonight. Rain
showers over VLD will continue for the next few hours. Expect
northwest winds to change over to easterly winds by tomorrow
morning with VFR CIGS and VIS.

&&

.Marine...

N-NW flow 20-25 knots will continue through the night, and
gradually veer to the NE before diminishing on Wednesday morning.
After that, an extended period of easterly flow will set up for
the rest of the week with periodic SCEC or perhaps brief advisory
level winds - especially at night.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although much drier air will push into the region from the
northwest tonight and Wednesday, soil moisture will be very
high due to the widespread heavy rainfall which fell during the
past 24 hours. Additionally, high temperatures on Wednesday are
not expected to be warm enough for relative humidities to reach
critical levels. Thereafter, a gradual warming and moistening
trend is expected with no fire weather concerns for the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

A band of heavy rain set up across the Florida Panhandle overnight.
Many areas in Florida got 2 to 3 inches of rain overnight and this
morning, with isolated amounts of 4 to 5 inches. The Georgia and
Alabama counties got less rain, 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts
of 2 to 3 inches. The Chipola River near Altha is rising quickly and
will likely crest in moderate flood stage. The St. Marks River
near Newport is also rising quickly and will also likely crest in
moderate flood stage. Moderate flooding is occurring along the
Choctawhatchee River near Bruce. Otherwise where flooding was
occurring it was generally in minor flood stage. Many rivers will
stay elevated through the week. Next chance for rain is Friday.
Rain totals Friday are expected to be around half an inch.

The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   40  71  48  73  59 /   0   0  10  30  40
Panama City   43  69  53  73  61 /   0   0  10  30  40
Dothan        36  67  45  71  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Albany        37  67  44  71  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
Valdosta      40  69  48  72  58 /   0   0  20  30  40
Cross City    42  72  52  77  60 /  10   0  20  30  50
Apalachicola  43  68  54  71  64 /   0   0  20  30  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for all zones.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/WALSH
AVIATION...GOULD/WALSH
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT






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