Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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309 FXUS62 KTAE 150716 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 316 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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THE LONG WAVE PATTERN FEATURES A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN, A FILLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THAT GENERAL AREA AS WELL RIDING WESTWARD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN MCS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS BRUSHING THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER TODAY. ONE SUCH WAVE IS OVER THE AREA NOW AND WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NEXT IN LINE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING DAYTIME HEATING AND MAY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY EVERYWHERE, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND LATER FURTHER EAST. IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HUMID ACROSS THE REGION. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]... A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH THE LOCAL AREA REMAINING IN DEEP MOIST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WILL KEEP POPS ATYPICALLY HIGH (60-70%) FOR APRIL WHICH IS ON AVERAGE OUR DRIEST MONTH. THIS APRIL IS ALSO ON TRACK TO BE OUR HOTTEST ON RECORD AND TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. .LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]... THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] WE ARE LOOKING FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS (DHN AND ECP) WITH MVFR FURTHER TO THE EAST. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z OR SO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, MAINLY FROM MIDDAY TO SUNSET.
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&& .MARINE...
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LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 83 68 81 67 82 / 70 40 70 50 60 PANAMA CITY 77 68 78 68 78 / 70 30 60 50 50 DOTHAN 79 65 77 62 78 / 70 50 60 60 60 ALBANY 81 65 77 62 77 / 70 60 60 50 60 VALDOSTA 83 65 80 63 81 / 70 50 60 50 60 CROSS CITY 85 67 82 67 83 / 60 40 70 50 60 APALACHICOLA 81 71 79 71 78 / 70 30 50 50 50
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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