Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 170751

251 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2014

...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Today...

...A Hard Freeze with Record Cold Temperatures Expected This Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional 04Z surface analysis showed an area of low pressure on the
south-central border between Mississippi and Alabama, with a cold
front extending southwestward from it across Mississippi and
Louisiana and out over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A warm front
extends eastward from the low, across southern Alabama and Georgia.
Southerly flow out ahead of the cold front/south of the warm front
has brought a return of warm, moist air to the area. With this
return flow, we have already seen the lowest temperatures we will
see for the night and surface dew points have already risen back into
the 60s. Scattered convection in this warm sector will be seen
overnight, with the main line of storms associated with this front
moving west to east across the area after sunrise.

The models continue to show a fairly tight gradient of SBCAPE along
the coast, with 500-1000 J/kg likely along the coastline, with
higher values offshore and lower values further inland. In addition
to this available energy, we`ll also have a good amount of
shear. GFS 0-1 km shear will be around 30-35 kt today ahead of the
front with 0-6 km shear around 50-60 kt. The environment is
favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms. The main
threat for severe weather today will be damaging straight-line
winds, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. SPC
continues to show a slight risk for these severe storms, with the
higher likelihood of these storms closer to the coastline with
instability is higher. A tornado watch is in effect through 9 AM
CST or 10 AM EST west of a line from Albany to Tallahassee.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The front should clear southeast of our zones early in the period
taking any precipitation with it. An arctic air mass will then
quickly make its way across the region. By daybreak, freezing
temperatures will have made it as far southeast as VLD and inland
portions of the FL Panhandle. Coffee County will actually flirt
with hard freeze criteria, but should fall just shy of duration
requirements. We upgraded all counties that were in the freeze watch
to a freeze warning. Total freeze durations will range from about 2
hours along the southeast boundary of the warning to about 8 hours
in Coffee County. When wind is factored in, wind chill readings will
drop into the teens northwest of a line from Albany to Marianna to
Destin. A wind chill advisory will be issued later today. Max temps
will be quite cold by November standards. Look for mid 40s across
Southeast AL tapering gradually upward to the lower 50s in Dixie
County. The predicted high of 50 at TLH would tie it for the 4th
coolest max temperature ever recorded within the first 20 days of
November. This will set the stage for a widespread hard freeze
Tuesday night and a hard freeze watch has been issued for the entire
forecast area. Min temps by daybreak Wednesday will mainly be in the
upper teens and lower 20s. This is exceptionally cold for November.
In fact, the predicted low of 20 degrees at TLH would be the coldest
temperature ever recorded that early in the season. Total freeze
durations for this event will be as long as 14 hours well inland
with even the Panhandle beaches getting a few hours of freezing
temperatures. Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 50s north to
the mid 50s south.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
We will see a moderating trend in temps through this period as the
upper trough lifts away. In fact, we will actually see some upper
ridging by Saturday. We should see one more freeze Wednesday night
with min temps increase by a few degrees each night after that.
Daytime highs will increase from the lower to mid 60s on Thursday to
the lower 70s on Sunday. Surface high pressure will be in control as
well keeping rain chances at a minimum through Saturday. However, by
Saturday night and Sunday, another energetic system will be
approaching from the west and initial indications are that there
will be some potential for severe weather with this system as well.


[Through 06Z Tuesday] Conditions will bounce up and down between
MVFR and IFR ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered
convection may affect terminals in the morning ahead of the main
line of thunderstorms ahead of the front, which will move west to
east across the area between 13-20Z. MVFR cigs may linger for a
few hours after the line has passed, but will improve to VFR by
around 00Z. Winds will be gusty today, especially with the main
line of storms and in the wake of the front, shifting from
southerly to northwesterly with the frontal passage.


Onshore winds will increase to advisory levels later this morning
across the western waters. Winds will shift during the day with the
passage of a strong cold front some strong storms could precede the
front. Frequent gale-force gusts are expected in the offshore flow
behind the front across our offshore marine legs from late this
afternoon into Tuesday morning and a gale warning has been issued.
Winds will not drop below advisory levels until Wednesday morning.
High pressure will then build into the region keeping winds and seas
below headline criteria from midday Wednesday through the end of the
work week.


.Fire Weather...
A significantly colder, drier air mass will move in quickly behind
today`s front. Relative humidity values will drop into the teens and
twenties on Tuesday and Wednesday. Red flag conditions are likely.


Rainfall totals today will stay around 0.75-1.00 inches, which will
cause minor rises on area rivers, but is not expected to cause
flooding given how low our area rivers currently are.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  34  50  20  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
Panama City   69  33  50  29  54 / 100  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  26  46  22  52 /  90  10   0   0   0
Albany        67  28  48  21  53 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      72  33  49  20  54 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    74  38  52  21  56 /  90  40   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  35  51  27  55 /  90  10   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for Baker-Ben Hill-

AL...Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday for

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM.



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