Area Forecast Discussion
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634 FXUS62 KTAE 020050 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 850 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed the western extension of the Bermuda ridge from central FL to coastal MS, except for a weak, north-south oriented trough along the western FL Peninsula. There was also a weak, east-west oriented trough across central GA and AL. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a rather small, flat anticyclone centered over southeast GA. Most of the showers & thunderstorms this evening were located near the aforementioned troughs, but we expect some of these storms to affect the eastern portions of our forecast area- mainly east of Tallahassee. As has been the case the past few nights, and it`s forecast by several of the latest Convection Allowing Models (CAMs), showers & storms may linger longer than normal for summertime, finally dissipating shortly after midnight.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday]...VLD and ABY will be the only terminals with a lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms this evening. By midnight, all terminals should be VFR with no threat for storms or restrictions. Tomorrow afternoon will feature another scattering of storms, though the terminals with the highest chances of being impacted will be ECP and VLD.
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&& .Prev Discussion [331 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... A slowly weakening 594 dm Upper Level ridge (which is currently centered over the CWA) will continue to dominate the synoptic pattern over the region as it slowly slides to the west. However, there is still plenty of deep layer moisture under this ridge, which when combined with very weak low level flow will keep PoPs generally in the 30-50% range both Tuesday and Wednesday, with most of the convective forcing generated by the sea breeze circulation. Afternoon temps will remain on the hot side as well, with highs still in the mid to upper 90s away from the coast. Overnight lows will continue to range from the lower to middle 70s inland to the middle to upper 70s near the coast. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Although the synoptic pattern will be dominated by weak Upper Level ridging throughout most of the extended period, the positioning of the Bermuda High pressure system at the surface will still allow for an ample supply of deep layer moisture to advect in from the southeast. Additionally, the Upper ridge is expected to weaken and retrograde westward over time, which should trend daytime PoPs at or even above climo levels (generally in the 30-50% range). While high and low temps are not expected to be nearly as warm as they have recently been, they should still average above climo, with highs generally in the lower to a few middle 90s, with lows still in the lower to middle 70s. .Marine... A very weak surface pressure pattern will dominate the coastal waters for the next several days, allowing the diurnal sea breeze circulation to govern the predominantly light winds. Seas that have been slightly elevated by a long southeasterly fetch during the past couple of days will diminish as well. .Fire Weather... Afternoon relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels, so red flag conditions are not expected through this week. .Hydrology... Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as low in Florida, though with little or no significant rainfall expected this week, the downward trend should continue.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 96 73 96 73 / 10 30 30 40 20 Panama City 77 92 77 92 78 / 10 30 20 30 20 Dothan 73 98 73 96 73 / 20 20 20 40 20 Albany 74 97 73 97 73 / 30 30 20 40 20 Valdosta 73 96 72 96 71 / 40 40 30 40 20 Cross City 73 94 71 94 71 / 30 40 30 40 20 Apalachicola 76 90 77 90 77 / 10 30 20 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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