Area Forecast Discussion
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053
FXUS62 KTAE 210105
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

For the first 12 hours of the forecast (Tonight), we made some
small changes mainly related to the distribution of PoPs for the
evening hours. The only remaining convective activity across the
area as of 00Z was in portions of southwest Georgia along and
behind a southward propagating outflow boundary. This activity was
diminishing quickly and that matches the trends in the convection
allowing models, which showed a sharp decrease in convection
between 00Z and 02Z. We followed a similar trend and kept a dry
forecast outside of SW Georgia.

The most significant change this evening was the issuance of a
Heat Advisory for Thursday to Saturday. 18Z guidance continued the
trend of earlier models in showing a very hot and humid period
beginning tomorrow (arguably it began today) and lingering into
the weekend. We expect near-record high temperatures in the upper
90s to around 100 each day; combined with afternoon dewpoints
around 70 into the lower 70s, those temperatures should yield heat
index values over 105 on a fairly widespread basis, with a decent
number of locations also peaking in the 108-111 degree range.

Heat stress may be compounded by the mostly sunny skies (with
limited convection), light winds, long duration, and warm
overnight lows. Furthermore, there are quite a few outdoor
activities around the area the next few days, so more people than
usual may be at risk from the heat.

    RECORD HIGHS AT SELECTED LOCATIONS AUGUST 21-23
   -------------------------------------------------

   ...LOCATION...        ...21ST...   ...22ND...   ...23RD...
   Tallahassee (TLH)      99 (1968)   100 (1980)   101 (1918)
   Apalachicola (AAF)     96 (1980)    96 (1980)    97 (2007)
   **3SE Albany (COOP)   101 (1983)   101 (1980)   104 (1980)

** NOTE: The Albany Airport (ABY) does not have a long period of
 record, but the Albany cooperative observer station has a period
 of record dating back to the early 20th century. Therefore,
 records listed above are shown from that location. This station
 report is included daily in the RTPTAE product as site ABYG1.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period with the exception of some possible MVFR visibility
around VLD for a few hours near sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

High pressure will continue to build across the region aloft and at
the surface, resulting in very hot conditions. Highs will be at
near record levels in the upper 90s to near 101 both days with
heat indices in the 105-110 range. Overnight lows will be warm in
the mid 70s. Precipitation will be below normal as will sky cover,
with showers and isolated thunderstorms confined to Florida zones
focused along the afternoon sea-breeze.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

It will continue to be hot and relatively dry over the coming
weekend as ridging persists and builds inland. With this fairly long
stretch of hot days and mild nights Heat Advisories are again
likely, although heat indices will become more dependent upon
afternoon cloudiness as we move into the early part of the week. An
east-west surface trough will begin to settle south across the
region late in the weekend into early next week as an upper level
trough digs southward across the western Atlantic on the front side
of the strong upper ridge. This may increase precipitation chances
early in the week as well as cloud cover which would suppress
daytime heating somewhat. The main story will be what happens
midweek into the latter part of next week with the potential
development of a tropical system moving into the Gulf. Global
models are not in agreement with each other, nor are they showing
much run-to-run consistency at this time, but this will be
monitored carefully in the next several days.


.Marine...

Light to occasionally moderate west winds will continue into the
upcoming weekend. Seas will remain in the 1 to 2 foot range.


.Fire Weather...

Despite drier air moving into the area, relative humidities will
remain above red flag criteria through the week. No red flag
conditions are expected.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals ranged from 1 to 3 inches yesterday. The next few
days will be drier with no significant rain expected. With all area
rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  99  76 100  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
Panama City   78  95  80  97  79 /  10  20  10  20  10
Dothan        75  97  76  99  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        75 100  76 100  75 /  50  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      74  99  74 100  75 /  30  20  10  20  10
Cross City    74  96  75  97  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  77  96  79  95  79 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday to 8 PM EDT /7
     PM CDT/ Saturday for all zones.
GA...Heat Advisory from Noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     all zones.
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     all zones.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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