Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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546 FXUS62 KTAE 140806 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 406 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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EARLY THIS MORNING, THE LAST LINGERING SHOWERS AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A DEAMPLIFYING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. THE CLEARING SKIES ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING, WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 14 UTC. REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TODAY, MODELS SEEM TO BE SUGGESTING A DEPARTURE FROM RECENT DAYS WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF 08 UTC, THERE WERE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS JUST OFFSHORE OF COASTAL ALABAMA. THESE MAY DRIFT TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BY MID MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE, BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE FOCUSED AFTER ABOUT 16-17 UTC (NOON - 1 PM EDT). HI-RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INITIATING CONVECTION NEAR I-10 AND THEN DRIFTING IT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS (60%) NORTH, WITH THE LOWEST POPS (20%) NEAR THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTY COASTLINES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF DRIER AIR TODAY IN THE MID LEVELS (10-15 KFT), WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE PWATS SOMEWHAT. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION COULD STILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL DELTA THETAE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-25C BY MOST MODELS. WITH LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS, IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AND KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST REGION UNDER WSW UPPER FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. A SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY COULD BACK DOOR INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS. PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH WITH LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR VALUES RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING SOME 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.| .LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]... THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP/EVOLVE OVER THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS RUN BACKED OFF ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE 18Z RUN AND NOW DELAYS ANY DRYING UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THEREFORE, LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME ATYPICAL APRIL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE TERMINALS EXPECTED TO SEE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY MIDDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE A SHOWER OR STORM, RAIN IS MOST LIKELY AT ABY AND VLD. STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 10, AND POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF ECP AND TLH, BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
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&& .MARINE...
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OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD STAY HIGH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES ON THE CHIPOLA RIVER WITH RISES ALSO NOTED ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA AND SHOAL RIVERS. FOR THE MOST PART, AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 87 68 82 67 83 / 40 40 50 50 60 PANAMA CITY 80 69 78 68 79 / 40 50 60 40 50 DOTHAN 84 65 81 65 80 / 60 50 60 50 60 ALBANY 86 66 81 65 78 / 60 50 70 60 60 VALDOSTA 88 67 83 66 82 / 40 40 60 50 60 CROSS CITY 89 67 84 67 82 / 20 30 50 40 60 APALACHICOLA 81 72 79 70 81 / 30 40 50 40 50
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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