Area Forecast Discussion
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431 FXUS62 KTAE 200033 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 833 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Sunday]...
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Short wave, which helped to generate the widespread precipitation across the region today, has moved east of the forecast region this evening. As a result, radar returns have diminished significantly over the past couple of hours. Expect activity to remain minimal through at least midnight, so have lowered PoPs for the first half of the night. After 06z, the next shortwave (currently over coastal Louisiana) will begin to approach the Florida Panhandle. Expect to see convection increase over the coastal waters by 06-09z, spreading inland over the western half of the forecast area by 12z. Have adjusted PoPs slightly upward during the time frame for many locations. The approaching shortwave, coupled with deep and moist southwesterly flow, will lead to another wet day on Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms spreading from the Panhandle early in the morning to the the remainder of the forecast area by mid to late morning. Guidance is in good agreement on rather high rain chances for Sunday, so have adjusted PoPs upward. Couple with the higher rain chances, have adjusted max temps down a few degrees for Sunday. .Short Term [Sunday night through Monday night]... Weak upper trough over the southeastern states will gradually pinch off along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. While the western half of the forecast area may get a respite from the wet pattern as some drier air works down the backside of the trough, the eastern half will likely remain unsettled with likely PoPs expected once again. Max temperatures will likely reflect this as well, with slightly warmer temperatures over the western portion of the forecast area.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Monday] Rain and thunderstorms from this afternoon have diminished, but a moist environment will remain in place overnight with the MVFR to IFR cigs expected to develop after midnight. In addition, another round of rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop near ECP close to dawn and spread east and north through the day on Sunday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [333 PM EDT]...
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.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The first two days of the long term will be near or above climatology in terms of rain chances while temperatures are expected to be below climatology. The increased chances for rain will be due to general long wave troughing over the Eastern CONUS and an upper low that is forecast to cut off from the mean 250mb flow and move southwest. As this low rotates around a fairly anomalous ridge over the Western US, rain chances will remain high through Wednesday. After Wednesday afternoon, models diverge slightly but both the Euro/GFS suggest a return to near normal climatological rain chances. For the end of the long term took an equal blend of HPC, Euro, and GFS guidance. .Marine... A low pressure system off to our west will increase onshore winds slightly to the west of Apalachicola thru tonight, and a long fetch of southerly winds deep into the Gulf of Mexico will increase seas over our western coastal waters into the 2 to 4 foot range. However, this will be below any headline levels, and further to the east, winds and seas will remain significantly lower. By Sunday and beyond, a weaker pressure pattern more typical for summertime will return, resulting in light winds and low seas for the rest of the period. .Fire Weather... A moist pattern is expected to persist for the next several days with increased rain chances each afternoon and evening. .Hydrology... Radar estimates of 2 to 4 inches of rain have fallen across the coastal counties of the FL Panhandle with lesser amounts to the north and east. An additional 1-1.5 inches of rain is possible through Sunday. Some minor rises are forecast on the smaller creeks and streams, but stages will remain well below flood stage. The coastal Panhandle counties will be most susceptible to flash flooding is additional echoes train over that area through tomorrow morning.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 86 73 89 72 / 40 70 40 60 50 Panama City 77 86 77 88 74 / 70 80 40 50 40 Dothan 72 87 72 91 71 / 60 70 30 40 20 Albany 72 88 71 88 72 / 40 70 40 50 30 Valdosta 71 87 72 89 71 / 30 70 50 70 50 Cross City 72 88 72 88 71 / 30 60 40 60 50 Apalachicola 77 86 75 87 75 / 60 70 40 50 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Sunday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...BLOCK/DOBBS AVIATION...DVD MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...WOOL/GODSEY

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