Area Forecast Discussion
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829 FXUS62 KTAE 261303 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 903 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH OF MOBILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAVORABLE JET COUPLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERLAPPING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE JET. THE CONSENSUS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE ON AN EAST- NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY TODAY AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A LARGE RESERVOIR OF HIGH INSTABILITY LOCATED OFFSHORE WITH SBCAPE VALUES ANALYZED OVER 3000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH VALUES NEAR 7C/KM OBSERVED ON THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR. THE HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
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&& .MARINE...
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A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...IN ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. OUTSIDE OF THIS CLUSTER...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION [650 AM EDT]...
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.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]... THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER...DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IRONICALLY...THE ANNUAL SPRINGTIME TALLAHASSEE FESTIVITIES SCHEDULED FOR SATURDAY WILL COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THE ONLY COOL DAYS IN MARCH. LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S AROUND DOTHAN...TO MID 60S AROUND CROSS CITY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY SATURDAY...AND THE MORE DIRECT SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE SUN. .LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]... THE DEEP LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL MID WEEK...WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE FAR TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD INDICATE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. THE GFS STILL HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK. .AVIATION... [THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]... OUTSIDE OF DHN AND VLD WHERE MVFR VIS IS STILL PRESENT, VFR LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING. BY VERY LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION, AFFECTING THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS, REDUCED VISIBILITIES (MAINLY MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR), AND LOWERING CIGS WHICH WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY AT DHN, ECP, AND ABY TOWARDS 12Z. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MVFR LEVEL CIGS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. .FIRE WEATHER... WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AND EVEN WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE TO DROP LOW ENOUGH AND THE WIND SPEEDS WERE TO REMAIN ELEVATED, ERC VALUES WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. BY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY, AND DEPENDING ON OTHER CRITICAL PARAMETERS, RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. .HYDROLOGY... NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 79 63 69 40 65 / 60 70 40 10 10 PANAMA CITY 74 60 66 47 62 / 70 70 30 0 10 DOTHAN 78 53 64 40 62 / 60 70 20 0 10 ALBANY 79 57 65 39 61 / 50 70 30 10 10 VALDOSTA 80 62 68 41 62 / 50 70 60 10 10 CROSS CITY 83 66 73 44 66 / 50 60 80 10 10 APALACHICOLA 76 64 70 46 63 / 70 70 40 0 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...DVD/FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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