Area Forecast Discussion
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303 FXUS62 KTAE 121953 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 353 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected to continue into tonight thanks to a ridge of surface high pressure. Probabilistic guidance such as the SREF does indicate the possibility of some fog overnight, especially further west in our area. With a relatively stagnant pattern and some patchy fog being observed last night, we have included patchy fog wording in the grids.
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&& .Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
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Another fair and quite warm day is on tap to finish the weekend with highs ranging from the upper 70s near the coast to the high end of the middle 80s well inland on Sunday, as the weak ridge of high pressure remains in control over the area. As this ridge begins to slide eastward, more humid air will begin to advect in off the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night and Monday, which will also be accompanied by increasing cloudiness ahead of the next developing upper level low pressure system to our west. Lows on Sunday night should range from the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south, with highs on Monday a few degrees cooler than on Sunday with less afternoon sunshine. Also, while the timing is still a bit uncertain, scattered showers and thunderstorms may reach the CWA during the afternoon hours, while the threat for any severe weather or heavy rainfall and potential flooding concerns should hold off until Monday night and Tuesday. Nevertheless, by Monday night PoPs should range from 30 to 40 percent across the SE 1/3 of the region, then gradually increase to 40 to 60 percent across most of the CWA, with even some 70 to 80 percent rain chances across SE AL and the western FL Panhandle by close to sunrise on Tuesday morning. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... After our reasonably long respite from the unsettled weather (given the nature of the extremely progressive and active upper level pattern this spring) which has lasted from last Wednesday through the first half of this weekend, signs of yet another developing shortwave to our west are already taking shape to impact our weather early next week. As was the case on Friday, the Global models are still in reasonable agreement of a steep upper level trof carving its way down to the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday into Wednesday before gradually pulling away to our NE. The main differences between the GFS and ECMWF are the timing and duration of this potential severe weather and likely heavy rainfall maker, with the ECMWF leaning towards a more bleak solution, with the possibility of a very heavy round or two of precip both over our CWA and upstream, which would exacerbate the flooding on many of our rivers and streams which are still quite high and recovering from the last flooding event. For now, the GFS is significantly faster, and while both models could still pose a severe weather threat (which we will be examining more closely over the next couple of days), the overall flooding impacts would be lower given the GFS solution with any significant impacts likely over by the end of the day on Tuesday. Thereafter, fair and near seasonable conditions should return for the balance of the week, with the next chance for inclement weather returning on Friday into Saturday.
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&& .Aviation...
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[through 18z Sunday] VFR conditions should continue to prevail across the region and at all terminals for much of the TAF period. The exception would be the possibility of some MVFR visibilities in fog around daybreak Sunday - mainly 09z to 13z.
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&& .Marine...
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Generally light east to southeasterly winds this evening are expected to increase to just below cautionary levels late tonight into Sunday as the pressure pattern briefly tightens. Then, onshore winds and seas will remain light to moderate through Monday before increasing to at least cautionary levels out of the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday out ahead of the next low pressure system and cold frontal boundary. In its wake, cautionary to possibly advisory level offshore winds and seas are expected to move into the marine area on Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for the next several afternoons. Some high dispersions are possible in parts of our Florida zones on Sunday. The next wetting rains should arrive late Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Most rivers have reached their peak and are generally falling. The only exceptions are the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce and Ochlockonee River at Havana. The Ochlockonee River at Concord is continuing a broad crest today and the Withlacoochee at Valdosta peaked right at minor flood stage early this morning. The next chance of rainfall is Monday through Tuesday night. At this time the system looks progressive enough to keep rainfall totals around 1.5-3", with higher rainfall totals north and west of the line from Apalachicola to Tallahassee to Fitzgerald. These totals will be too low for flash flooding to be a main concern...however, this may slow the decreases on already swollen rivers and may even cause a few to return to bankfull or minor flood stage by later in the week. The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be found on the AHPS page at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 56 84 61 83 64 / 0 0 10 30 40 Panama City 62 79 64 77 64 / 0 0 10 30 60 Dothan 58 83 60 80 59 / 0 0 10 50 70 Albany 57 82 59 80 61 / 0 0 10 30 60 Valdosta 56 87 60 85 63 / 0 0 10 20 40 Cross City 55 84 61 83 64 / 0 0 10 20 30 Apalachicola 63 78 65 77 66 / 0 0 10 30 50
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...DVD/MOORE

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