Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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499
FXUS62 KTAE 260253
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1053 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS...AND THAT
WILL BE VERY NEAR DAWN ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL BUT ABY AND ECP TONIGHT. ECP
WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD BANK SO THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [419 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND APPROACH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND SO
WE BELIEVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ON THE LOW
SIDE...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ZERO. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 70 FARTHER SOUTH. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TEMPORARILY FLATTENS OUT. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK.


.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...AS ARE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.


.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH DISPERSION INDICES BOTH
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.


.HYDROLOGY...
NEARLY ALL OF THE LOCAL RIVERS WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE. THE NEXT
ROUND OF RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE MAJOR RISES ON THE RIVERS. WE EXPECT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   58  79  62  72  44 /   0  50  70  40  10
PANAMA CITY   64  73  60  67  47 /  10  60  70  30   0
DOTHAN        59  77  55  65  40 /   0  50  60  20   0
ALBANY        59  79  58  66  41 /   0  40  60  30  10
VALDOSTA      58  79  61  68  43 /   0  30  60  50  10
CROSS CITY    60  83  64  74  46 /   0  30  50  70  10
APALACHICOLA  63  77  65  73  47 /  10  60  70  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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