Area Forecast Discussion
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566 FXUS62 KTAE 010148 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 848 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A fairly simple southwesterly flow regime continues aloft across the Southeast this evening. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure remains intact along the Eastern Seaboard all the way through the Tri-State region to the Gulf coast. The near surface northeasterly flow and the very shallow cool, stable layer barely extends to 1kft before wind starts to veer and the air warms about 5 degrees. With northeasterly trajectories expected to continue overnight, the cool stable airmass will only be reinforced. Just above this layer however, heights will begin to rise tonight as the deep layer synoptic pattern amplifies in response to a developing low over the Southwest. This will act to compact the near surface cool layer and steepen the nose of the wedge front. As it does so, expect the coverage of isentropic drizzle or light rain to increase. As low-layer flow veers through the night, the area of drizzle and light rain will halt it`s northwestward spread and begin to move north, then northeast. This will mean that the best rain chances through the night will be spread across the Big Bend of Florida and southern Georgia, with lesser coverage across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. QPF amounts are expected to be quite low as an average, though still went with near 100 PoPs as confidence is relatively high that most locations will receive at least 0.01" through the night. Some of the hires guidance suggests there may be a few locations that could receive around a tenth of an inch. Lows tonight will range from near 40 degrees across our northernmost GA counties to around 50 degrees along the Gulf coast and the southeast Big Bend.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Monday]... All terminals have fallen to IFR ceilings as of 01z. Expect ceilings to lower to between 001-004ft through the night. Light rain or drizzle should be expected at all terminals. Rain will gradually come to an end tomorrow from southwest to northeast, with ceilings possibly improving to low-end MVFR by the late afternoon.
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&& .Prev Discussion [301 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... So the big question is whether the cool wedge in place across the region will begin to breakdown on Sunday as indicated in some of the models. The GFS is very aggressive with eroding the wedge as high pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens and then shifts out into the Western Atlantic. The NAM keeps the wedge in place across Southern Georgia with some erosion of the cool air across the Florida zones. Typically, models tend to be a bit too quick to erode the inversion, so will lean the forecast for Sunday closer to the NAM solution and show another cool and cloudy day across the area, with perhaps only some late day improvement in the Florida counties. By Monday, southerly flow becomes more established at the surface with the mid level pattern shifting to a ridge building across the Western Gulf. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing only for a slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the building mid level ridge and southerly flow will help temperatures to finally break into the 70s across much of the area. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The first portion of the long term period will feature a warm stretch of weather through Wednesday with the mid level ridge shifting to the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday, a cold front will move into the region bringing a chance of rain and a return to cool and cloudy days possibly persisting through Friday. Beyond that time, the models differ on whether the surface frontal boundary will dissipate across the area, allowing for cool but sunny skies next weekend, or remain in place, waiting for the next southern stream impulse to deliver more rain. .Marine... Borderline advisory conditions will continue through tonight before quickly diminishing on Sunday morning as high pressure weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. However, very low dispersion indices are expected through at least Monday. In fact, dispersion indices tonight may be higher than the maximum dispersions tomorrow. This is a result of weakening transport winds, low ceilings, and relatively low mixing heights. .Hydrology... Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta early tomorrow. No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 46 62 54 75 56 / 100 10 10 10 10 Panama City 49 65 55 68 58 / 60 10 10 10 10 Dothan 43 60 51 71 56 / 60 10 10 20 10 Albany 40 53 49 70 56 / 100 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 44 58 53 75 57 / 100 20 10 10 10 Cross City 50 71 56 76 57 / 90 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 52 65 57 68 59 / 90 10 10 10 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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