Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
264 FXUS62 KTAE 190825 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 425 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Challenging forecast for today with already one round of shower and thunderstorm activity moving east of the region and regional radars showing the next batch of storms developing south of Ala/Western Fla Panhandle. Model guidance offers some reasonable consensus on areas most likely to receive another round of storms today, but predawn offshore convection often creates issues with the forecast later in the day. Further, the extensive debris cloudiness already in place will limit the degree of destabilization. With all that being said, most of the model guidance is in good agreement a weak disturbance will move just north of the region this afternoon and provide enhancement for additional storm development. This would seem to favor areas from the Florida Panhandle into Southeast Alabama and Southwestern Georgia. Were this to occur, it would be reasonable that downstream areas to the east would likely have less storm coverage. So constructed today`s pops higher in the west (80%) and lower in the east (40%-50%). With this much convection, expect temperatures to struggle to get out of the upper 80s this afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Now that the unsettled weather has arrived, it will be in no hurry to exit the region in the now generally stagnant upper level pattern. Although complete washouts are not expected each day and night over the next few days, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain elevated both day and night as an upper level low pressure system essentially parks over our area and does little to move. This blocking pattern will be due in part to the development of a very strong upper level ridge (near 600 dm) over the Rocky Mountain States, where high temps in Denver, CO may reach or exceed 100 degrees. High temps in our region will depend on the amount of cloud cover and rainfall, with any areas that do not see any/many breaks in the overcast remaining in the 80s. A few areas that do see a couple hours of insolation could break the 90 degree mark, but any mid 90s appear out of the question. Finally, although this low pressure system appears to have weakened and the amount of available deep layer moisture decreased from this point in time on Saturday, will still have to keep an eye on Storm Total Rainfall for some potential minor/nuisance flooding in any low lying and poor drainage areas. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... A wet pattern will be prevailing over our CWA through the long term as we will be in the weakness between two large longwave ridges, one over the Atlantic, and one over the Western CONUS. This weakness will allow the area to be under the influence of deep layer southerly flow which will give good rain chances for all parts of the forecast region. Further adding to the weakness will be a cut off upper low that the GFS and Euro indicate could drop down from the mean 250mb flow Monday afternoon. As this rotates SW around the ridge, it will further fortify our rain chances throughout the long term especially Monday-Wednesday afternoons.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions early this morning will give way to at least MVFR conditions with numerous to widespread thunderstorms by late morning/early afternoon at ECP/DHN/ABY. Occasional IFR conditions are possible in the stronger storms. Storms coverage should be more scattered at TLH/VLD where VCTS groups were used. Expect sufficient debris cloudiness to linger overnight into Sunday to prevent any vsby/cig restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
A low pressure system off to our west will increase onshore winds slightly to the west of Apalachicola today and tonight, and a long fetch of southerly winds deep into the Gulf of Mexico will increase seas over our western coastal waters into the 2 to 4 foot range today and into tonight. However, this will be below any headline levels, and further to the east, winds and seas will remain significantly lower. By Sunday and beyond, a weaker pressure pattern more typical for summertime will return, resulting in light winds and low seas for the rest of the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
A moist pattern is expected to persist for the next several days with increased rain chances each afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain chances will be quite a bit higher than recently through the weekend and into early next week. Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the western half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches to the east through Monday. These rainfall amounts should not be widespread enough to cause any river flooding, although some localized minor flooding in the usual flood prone areas will be possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 88 72 89 73 89 / 60 30 60 40 60 Panama City 87 77 87 77 88 / 80 40 50 40 50 Dothan 88 72 88 72 91 / 80 40 50 30 50 Albany 87 73 88 71 88 / 80 40 60 40 60 Valdosta 88 72 91 72 89 / 50 30 60 40 60 Cross City 89 72 91 72 88 / 40 20 60 40 60 Apalachicola 87 76 87 75 88 / 60 30 50 40 50
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/GOULD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.